The culture wars, issues dealing with women's rights, LGBT rights and race have dominated US politics for the past 40 years. The social movements of the 60s brought about major shifts in the traditionally dominant culture. Since then a major dynamic in politics has been an effort by social conservatives to regain their lost ground by attacking liberals/progressives as undermining the moral fabric of the country.
The upcoming election is close and messy. I am not making any predictions about where the balance of political power will stand on Wednesday morning. However, there seems to be an interesting shift in campaign rhetoric that is analysed in an article in The Guardian.
North Carolina race shows how parties have traded places on culture wars
Observers of North Carolina politics have been amazed by how the “culture war” theme that was central to the Republican discussion even two years ago has been virtually written out of the script this election cycle. “Social issues are pretty much dropping off the map,” said Dr Thomas Little, a political scientist at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro. “Tillis is making no mention of cultural issues – for him it’s all about tying Hagan to Obamacare.”
Even more striking is the stance being adopted by Hagan and her Democratic supporters, who have been as keen to discuss social issues as the Republicans have been to avoid them. “They’ve virtually traded places. If the culture war has been talked about at all, it’s Hagan bringing it up by attacking Tillis for having gone too far,” Little said.
In the longer view, the sea change that is evident in North Carolina over the culture war – the new reluctance of Republicans to address it matched by the new willingness of Democrats to go on the offensive – could have far-reaching consequences. Political positions that appeared for years to be immutable have suddenly started to shift.
The article goes on to analyse other races in the current election and finds a similar pattern of a shift between the parties. It presents the view that this shift in campaign tactics reflects a political perception that public opinion is undergoing a basic sea change on at least some of these issues.
Marriage equality is probably the most dramatic case. When prop 8 passed in California 6 years ago there was clearly no general public endorsement of same sex marriage as a civil right. In a fairly short period of time it has become the prevailing public opinion and is a strong consensus among younger voters. As a result of a sweeping trend in court decisions, it is rapidly on its way to becoming the law of the land. Women's rights to abortion and contraception have also become much more strongly supported.
In deep red states like Texas and Mississippi political reality hasn't shifted. They are still scrambling around for ways to hold their ground. However, in states that are considered to be battle grounds the ground seems to have shifted.
I don't know what implications this has for short term political outcomes, but it does strike me as an interesting development.