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NY-11: There were a ton of polls released over the weekend, but one still managed to stand out from the crowd. Siena finds Republican Rep. Michael Grimm
leading Democrat Domenic Recchia 53-34, a huge improvement from Grimm's already remarkable 44-40 lead in September.
When Grimm was indicted in late April for fraud, some Democrats imagined New York's 11th would be an easy pickup, particularly after Grimm's fundraising dried up to almost nothing and national Republicans showed no interest in helping him. It also didn't help that in late January, Grimm had threatened to "break" a reporter "in half" and throw him over the House balcony—all while cameras were rolling. On top of everything, this district went for Obama 52-47, and it looked like Grimm's fate was sealed. Yet here we are, with Grimm posting a 19-point lead on the eve of the election.
As we've noted before, Siena does not have a particularly good record, but Recchia's response to this poll seems to confirm that this time, they're not too far off the fairway. Not only did Recchia fail to release (or even hint at) better internal poll numbers of his own, he dismissed them by saying, "The only poll that counts is the poll on Tuesday."
We've long labeled this kind of language "loserspeak," and for good reason. As Nathan Gonzales wrote in an article on the topic, this declaration "means you are losing the race at the time and have no empirical evidence to the contrary." There is, however, one positive sign for Recchia: Early last week, the House Majority PAC announced a $1.7 million ad buy against Grimm. It's very unlikely they'd spend this much if they thought Grimm had anything resembling the kind of lead Siena just found, though we'll find out soon enough.
So how did Grimm go from looking like electoral roadkill to emerging as the favorite? As we've noted before, plenty of Staten Islanders believe Grimm when he says that the government is out to get him. This is an area that's full of voters who, rightly or wrongly, view themselves as neglected by their city, local, and national governments, and they're perfectly willing to view Grimm as the latest victim. Grimm and many of his constituents share the same chip on their collective shoulders, and the congressman has built a distinct cult of personality by stoking this resentment.
As unusual as this may seem, we saw something similar in Louisiana in 2006, shortly after Hurricane Katrina. Then-Rep. Bill Jefferson, a Democrat, faced a looming indictment on corruption charges, and voters knew it. Yet to many New Orleanians who had watched their government fail them during the storm, it looked like the feds were out to get Jefferson. Like Grimm, Jefferson was able to tap into this resentment, and he defeated a much better funded Democrat in the runoff. He only wound up losing a cycle later in an unusual low-turnout general election that took place in December.
Grimm very well may be about to pull off a similar feat, and it certainly helps him that Recchia is a very flawed candidate. Recchia started the race with a geographical disadvantage, hailing from Brooklyn rather than Staten Island; about 70 percent of voters in the 11th live on Staten Island, and plenty of them would prefer a local congressman over someone from the wrong part of the district—even if he's under indictment.
Recchia has also made a few notable gaffes, and his responses only made things worse. In a different swing district, Grimm's indictment might have rendered these flaws meaningless, but not here. Of course, Grimm could still get convicted and come under severe pressure to resign, but his trial is scheduled for after Election Day, far too late to help Recchia.
At this point, in spite of everything, Grimm has the advantage, so we're changing our race rating here from Tossup to Lean Republican. (Jeff Singer)
• Polling: This weekends polls, as of Sunday afternoon:
Senate:
• AR-Sen: PPP (D): Tom Cotton (R) 49, Mark Pryor (D-inc) 41 (Sept.: 43-38 Cotton)
• GA-Sen: Marist: David Perdue (R) 48, Michelle Nunn (D) 44, Amanda Swafford (L) 3 (May: 45-41 Perdue)
• IA-Sen: Selzer & Co.: Joni Ernst (R) 51, Bruce Braley (D) 44 (Oct. 12: 47-46 Ernst)
• KY-Sen: Marist: Mitch McConnell (R-inc) 50, Alison Grimes (D) 41 (Sept.: 47-39 McConnell)
• KY-Sen: PPP (D): McConnell (R-inc) 50, Grimes (D) 42 (Aug.: 44-40 McConnell)
• LA-Sen: Marist: Bill Cassidy (R) 50, Mary Landrieu (D-inc) 45
• LA-Sen: PPP (D): Cassidy (R) 48, Landrieu (D-inc) 47 (Oct.: 48-45 Cassidy)
Note that both Louisiana polls are for the December runoff between Landrieu and Cassidy. Both pollsters tested the Tuesday jungle primary between those two candidates, tea partying Republican Rob Maness, and a few minor candidates and found the same result every other pollster has been
finding for months: No candidate is anywhere close to taking the 50 percent plus one vote they would need to win outright, and a Landrieu-Cassidy runoff is all but assured.
Selzer's Iowa poll giving Ernst a 7-point lead made a huge splash when it was released on Saturday. As we've noted in the past, Selzer has a very good record in Iowa, though like any pollster they have had some missteps along the way. The good news for Democrats is that this poll is the only one to give Ernst a sizable lead in a long time. The bad news is that most independent polls give Ernst a consistent lead. Even a recent Democratic poll from Garin-Hart-Yang could only find a tie for Braley.
And Braley's reaction to this new Selzer survey also did not inspire much confidence. His camp released a memo critiquing the poll but didn't release any numbers of their own. Instead, they argued that the race was close but Braley's early vote lead and Democrats superior ground game would carry them to victory. However, as Taniel has noted, the Democrats' early vote lead is not as large as it usually is. Even if Selzer is completely wrong, Ernst does look to be in a better position.
As for Pryor and Grimes: Either they're goners or we're about to see one of the biggest polling fails ever. Sadly, I'm not betting on option two.
Gubernatorial:
• AK-Gov: Rasmussen: Bill Walker (I) 50, Sean Parnell (R-inc) 43 (Sept.: 47-42 Walker)
• AR-Gov: PPP (D): Asa Hutchinson (R) 51, Mike Ross (D) 41 (Sept.: 44-38 Hutchinson)
• CT-Gov: PPP (D): Dan Malloy (D-inc) 44, Tom Foley (R) 41, Joe Visconti (I) 6 (Oct. 6: 43-35 Malloy)
• GA-Gov: Marist: Nathan Deal (R-inc) 48, Jason Carter (D) 43, Andrew Hunt (L) 3 (May: 50-40 Deal)
• ID-Gov: PPP (D): Butch Otter (R-inc) 49, A.J. Balukoff (D) 37, Others 10 (Oct. 14: 39-35 Otter)
• IL-Gov: We Ask America (R): Pat Quinn (D-inc) 50, Bruce Rauner (R) 45 (Oct. 12: 44-41 Quinn) (Conducted for the Illinois Observer
• MA-Gov: PPP (D): Charlie Baker (R) 46, Martha Coakley (D) 42 (Sept. 2013: 51-38 Coakley)
• NH-Gov: Rasmussen: Maggie Hassan (D-inc) 51, Walt Havenstein (R) 42 (Sept.: 51-40 Hassan)
• OK-Gov: SoonerPoll.Com: Mary Fallin (R-inc) 48, Joe Dorman (D) 40 (Oct. 6: 50-36 Fallin)
On Sunday, the conservative Visconti dropped out of Connecticut's gubernatorial race and endorsed Foley, though his name will
remain on the ballot. However, PPP found that Malloy would maintain his 3-point edge even without Visconti. On the other hand, a recent Quinnipiac poll found the race going from a tie to a
1-point Foley lead if Visconti dropped out. With Visconti backing Foley, his small group of supporters could break to the GOP at a greater rate than either poll indicates, and that could make all the difference in this tight contest.
Idaho was fun while it lasted, but it looks like the Gem State's red hue will carry Otter to another term. The last PPP poll gave the governor only a 4-point edge but found Otter with more room to grow than Balukoff, and indeed, in the last few weeks, undecided voters appear to have overwhelmingly broken for the incumbent. The one good sign for Democrats is that the RGA was still airing ads here as late as last week, which may indicate that they don't think Otter has this race locked up. Even so, it would be a massive shock if Otter goes down.
Overall, this batch of polling doesn't bring much good news for Democrats, but one diamond in the rough comes from Illinois, where WAA finds Quinn up by 5. WAA has traditionally favored Republicans, sometimes to the point of absurdity, so it is a good sign that even they give Quinn a tangible edge. (Note, however, that WAA did not allow respondents to say they were undecided, something the firm typically does with their final polls.) Over the summer WAA was incredibly bullish for Rauner, finding him with a double-digit lead as late as August.
Over the past few months, however, Quinn has closed the gap, with recent polls showing him often in the lead (and at most down 2 points). In fact, this is Quinn's best poll since an APC Research survey showed him up 11 in mid-September (that poll was almost certainly an outlier, especially since their most recent one gave Rauner a 2-point edge). We'll see how things go Tuesday but it looks like Quinn could pull this off after being left for dead over the summer.
House:
• GA-12: Landmark Communications (R): Rick Allen (R) 48, John Barrow (D-inc) 44
• NY-01: Siena: Lee Zeldin (R) 50, Tim Bishop (D-inc) 45 (Sept.: 51-41 Bishop)
• NY-11: Siena: Michael Grimm (R-inc) 53, Domenic Recchia (D) 34 (Sept.: 44-40 Grimm)
The trendlines in NY-01 are very disturbing for Bishop, who looked surprisingly hale in Siena's first poll. But Siena's numbers have gone south for congressional Democrats (or contenders) across New York, and give how swingy the 1st District is, it's very possible the bottom has finally dropped out for Bishop. However, give his campaign some credit: In
responding to the poll, they didn't offer alternative numbers but simply said that Bishop "has a history of winning close races," which is certainly true and at least doesn't sound like loserspeak.
8:36 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Below, Taniel rounds up early voting statistics from battleground states across the country.
• Colorado: All eyes are on the Centennial State because 1,343,059 ballots have already been received. That's 73.5 percent of the total 2010 electorate! Republicans have dominated among the ballots so far returned. As of Monday morning, they had cast 40 percent of ballots compared to 32 percent for Democrats. And that is already a tightening from the lead of 9-10 points they enjoyed through the week.
Democrats have not been panicked about the GOP's edge because Colorado Republicans voters are more likely to return their ballots earlier, while Democrats pick-up the rhythm later on. (Part of the reason is that voters over the age of 65 vote at a dramatically higher pace than young voters.) In fact, Democrats outvoted Republicans for the first time this year among ballots that were processed on Saturday, and the GOP's gap should continue narrowing as younger and Democratic voters vote in great numbers in the final days. The question is whether the gap narrows enough for Sen. Mark Udall to have a shot at proving polls wrong, just as fellow Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet did in 2010.
Four years ago, Bennet won by 1.7 points even though the overall electorate skewed Republican by 6.8 points. At the moment it seems likely that Democrats can move the electorate to at least look like 2010's given the demographics of voters who tend to cast their ballot in the final days, especially when you consider that the state now has same-day registration for the time and that provisional ballots, which tend to skew Democratic, have still to be processed. But Cory Gardner is expected to do better among Republican and independent voters this year than Ken Buck did four years ago, in which case Udall would need the overall gap to be more narrow than in 2010. This is the key question we will be watching for in Colorado.
There's one additional positive sign for Team Blue. Voters who did not vote in 2010 but did vote in 2014 are a less Republican group than the overall electorate. That's a more significant statistic in Colorado than it may be elsewhere since the Democratic ground game in this state that year was so celebrated.
• Florida: Democrats had been looking forward to flexing their turnout muscle on Sunday thanks to their "Souls to the Polls" operation, and flex they did.
Among the 96,142 votes cast in Florida on Sunday, Democrats outvoted Republicans 52-27 percent. That allowed them to cut the Republicans' overall early voting advantage to 3.3 points, down from 8 points a week ago and 13 points a week before that. While this overall breakdown is a strong performance for Democrats for a midterm year, it is also a significant improvement for Republicans since 2012. In 2010, the GOP enjoyed an edge of 12.7 points but the Obama campaign's unprecedented focus on mail-voting in 2012 helped Democrats take a lead of 3.8 points in 2012.
I have written in the past about the many reasons that it may be hard to compare Florida's early voting this year to that of past cycles, so all I can say is that this supports the idea that 2014 is in in-between year, and that it would make sense for either gubernatorial candidate to win with such turnout patterns.
• Georgia: In-person early voting ended with 934,485 Georgians having cast a ballot. 32.8 percent of them are black, which is comparable to what early voting statistics showed in 2012 (33 percent).
That alone is a good sign for Democrats, who were fearful of a significant drop in African-American turnout over 2012. They seem to have mobilized minority voters who typically skip midterms: Of early voters who didn't vote in 2010, just 51 percent where white and 37 percent were black. Of course, if the Senate and/or gubernatorial races go to runoffs, Democrats would have to produce such turnout numbers again in December and/or in January to be in contention.
• Iowa: Hawkeye State Democrats have historically been far more mobilized to vote early than Republicans. In 2010, a year that was hardly easy for them, they outvoted Republicans by 5.5 percentage points among early voters. This year, the Democratic advantage among early voters has been more modest. As of Monday morning, Democrats had cast 40.6 of 432,190 early votes, while Republicans had cast 38.8.
This is a product of Republicans raising their early voting game more than it is a product of Democrats' failing at theirs. Indeed, both GOP and Democratic turnout is already up significantly compared to 2010's total early vote. As such, it is possible to the shift we are seeing is mostly due to registered Republicans shifting their preferred mode of voting. But it is also possible that Republicans are doing a better job than Democrats at expanding the voting universe.
Democrats have been saying that their internal tracking shows that many of the unaffiliated who voted early are Democratic-leaning voters who did not vote in 2010. Unfortunately, unlike other states Iowa releases few statistics about early voters beyond the overall partisan breakdown so it is not possible to assess that claim based on these official reports.
• Maine: On Wednesday, independent gubernatorial candidate Eliot Cutler invited his supporters to back another candidate if they thought he could not win. Independent Sen. Angus King soon switched his endorsement from Cutler to Democratic nominee Mike Michaud, I immediately wondered how many Maine voters had already locked in their vote before hearing of these developments and shifting their vote away from Cutler.
Here's the answer: As of Thursday morning, 84,617 Maine voters had cast their ballots, 24.4 percent of which are independent voters. That may sound like a lot, and in a close race it may well make a difference, but that number corresponds to just 14.6 percent of the total number of votes cast during the 2010 elections.
A little math: Supposing 15 percent of those voters went for Cutler, that two-thirds of them would have chosen to vote for someone else had they waited for his announcement, and that they would have chosen between Michaud or LePage in the proportion suggested in the most recent PPP survey (55 percent Michaud and 35 percent LePage), we are talking about a potential loss of about 0.3 percent for Michaud in the final margin.
• Nevada: For much of the two-week early voting period, Silver State Democrats seemed to have disappeared. The situation stabilized over the last two days of early voting (Thursday and Friday), when Democrats finally outvoted Republicans by meaningful margins in Clark County, the county home to Las Vegas and almost three-quarters of the state's residents.
This at least raised hopes that enough Democratic voters will show up on Tuesday to save the party from unexpected upsets, but it was not enough to make the overall turnout look anything like what Democrats want it to be. Two numbers capture the situation.
First, registered Democrats have been narrowly outvoted overall in Clark County, a dramatic reversal from the large leads that Democrats had amassed there over the past cycles. Second, only 23 percent of Clark County's active registered voters have cast a ballot for now. In many of the state's rural counties, where Republicans do well, more than 30 percent of active registered voters have voted.
Unlike what has happened in Iowa, the GOP's gains in Nevada come from a significant drop in turnout compared to the previous midterms. Some of this makes sense, as there is no high-profile competitive statewide race this year unlike Harry Reid's re-election campaign four years ago.
Nevada reporter Jon Ralston wrote on Sunday that the turnout gap is so favorable to Republicans that Democrats are risking heavy losses in races that were not supposed to be on our radar. We're talking about Rep. Steve Horsford, attorney general nominee Ross Miller, secretary of state nominee Kate Marshall, and many legislative and down-ballot candidates. These races now depend on the Democratic ground game—led in part by the Culinary Workers Union—succeeding in turning out enough voters to close the GOP's edge to a more manageable margin than the current gap of 7 percentage points.
• North Carolina: In-person early voting concluded on Saturday on a strong note: a total of 1,097,560 North Carolinians took advantage of one-stop voting, a 121 percent increase over 2010. And much of that growth came from Democrats and from African-Americans.
About 284,000 African-Americans voted early this year, an impressive 45 percent increase over 2010. White voters increased their participation in early voting by just 12.5 percent. Among Democrats, the growth from 2010 was 25 percent, compared to just 5 percent among Republicans. The biggest increase, however, comes from independent voters: 45 percent more voted this year. Who these voters are is obviously the big question heading into Election Night.
And as you would expect given the numbers above, the most Democratic areas of the state saw particularly strong turnout. Orange County (that's Chapel Hill) finished 43 percent above its 2010 number, and Durham County finished 34 percent above. Throw in North Carolina's relatively modest mail-voting as well, and here is where we stand: 1,155,124 North Carolinians have already voted, 47.6 percent of them Democrats and 31.9 percent of them Republicans. That's an edge of 15.7 percentage points. That compares very well to 2010 (46-37) and is only a drop of 0.4 percentage points compared to the presidential year of 2012.
Of course the big question is whether the growth in early voting is just a result of voters who would vote anyway just doing so early. We have numbers to indicate that this is not the case. Twenty-five percent of early voting Democrats did not vote at all in 2010, compared to 20 percent of Republican early voters. And whites made up just 66 percent of voters who didn't vote at all in 2010, compared to 72 percent among all early voters.
That said, while the early voting electorate is much less white than in 2010, it is also significantly more so than in 2012: 71 percent versus 67 percent. This highlights that Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan needs to win a significantly greater share of the white vote than Barack Obama did two years ago.
• Others: There are many other states to go through, but there is only so much time. You can check Michael McDonald's excellent site for the latest statistics from all the states, and tell us more in the comments about states I have missed.
9:06 AM PT (Jeff Singer): San Jose Mayor: This will be the largest city to host a mayoral race this year, but the polling has been scarce. However, SurveyUSA gives us a rare look at this contest and gives Santa Clara County Supervisor Dave Cortese a 44-38 lead over San Jose City Councilmember Sam Liccardo. A mid-October poll from San Jose State University gave Cortese a 34-26 lead.
Both candidates are Democrats, but there are real differences between them. Cortese is a labor ally, while Liccardo is closer to outgoing Mayor Chuck Reed. Reed's pension reform policies have inflamed unions, and they're hoping that Cortese and a more friendly city council can undo some of the incumbent's actions.
9:52 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Race Ratings: We'll be rolling out quite a few changes to our race ratings as we finalize things ahead of election night. As always, you can check out all our ratings on our big board.
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AR-Sen (Tossup/Tilt Republican to Lean Republican): It's hard to feel good about Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor's chances on Tuesday. He has
not led in an independent poll since late-September, and he's usually been down by mid-single digits. The state Democratic party has been releasing surveys giving him a 1 or 2 point lead, but it's unlikely that they're right and everyone else is wrong. Outside groups from both sides have been spending big here and a Pryor upset may still be possible, but don't count on it.
• CO-Sen, IA-Sen (Tossup to Tossup/Tilt Republican): Republicans Cory Gardner and Joni Ernst have posted small but consistent leads in most polls, and it would be an upset if Sen. Mark Udall or Rep. Bruce Braley pulled off a victory on Tuesday. It's not an encouraging sign that recent leaked internals from Team Blue show only a tie, not the best news this late in the game. Colorado especially is a hard state to poll, and we're not ruling out a Udall or Braley win, but the GOP does appear to have a tangible lead going into Election Day.
• KY-Sen (Lean Republican to Likely Republican): Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell remains an unpopular figure in the commonwealth, but he doesn't need to be beloved to win. McConnell has relentlessly linked Democrat Alison Grimes to Obama, who remains despised in Kentucky, and it seems to have worked. Recent polls say that McConnell has dragged Grimes' favorable ratings into the gutter and show him defeating her by anywhere from 5 to 9 points. Grimes' own pollster has also admitted that she's not in the lead. We knew from day one that Kentucky would be a hard state for Democrats; throw in the crummy overall environment and it's bordering on impossible.
• MI-Sen (Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic): Polls have routinely shown a double-digit lead for Democrat Gary Peters against Republican Terri Lynn Land, and the national GOP pulled out of Michigan a while ago. Barring a massive surprise on Tuesday, Land is done. Really.
10:37 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Race Ratings:
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NH-Gov (Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic): New Hampshire has a long history of re-electing first term governors. Since 1926,
only Republican Craig Benson was tossed after just two years in office. Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan appears to have acquitted herself well with voters and remains the favorite but the national climate appears to be holding her back. The RGA has
spent $3 million, attacking Hassan primarily on taxes, while the DGA has stayed out. Recent polls have been
all over the map; they almost all find Hassan with some kind of lead over Republican Walt Havenstein, but some show a tighter-than-expected race. It would be a surprise if Havenstein pulls it off, but the polls indicate it's possible.
• MD-Gov, RI-Gov (Lean Democratic to Tossup/Tilt D): There has been very little polling out of either Massachusetts or Rhode Island, but what we've seen indicates that both contests are uncomfortably close for Democrats Anthony Brown and Gina Raimondo respectively. Both parties are also acting like both states are in play, with the DGA and RGA spending late in the game. Rhode Island has been much more willing to elect Republican governors than Maryland, but there was one particularly bad sign out of the Old Line State last week: Republican Larry Hogan released a survey giving himself a 5-point edge last week, and Brown never responded with better numbers. We still think the deep blue nature of both states to will carry Brown and Raimondo to victory again over Hogan and Allan Fung, respectively, but a GOP win in either or both states wouldn't be a shock anymore.
• NE-Gov, TX-Gov (Likely Republican to Safe Republican): These two red state contests just never took shape for Democrats. The party held out some hope that Chuck Hassebrook could pull off a surprise in the Cornhusker State, but there has been little activity here. The RGA spent some money here over the summer but soon stopped, apparently confirming that Pete Ricketts was where they wanted him to be. In Texas, despite a lot of early excitement, Wendy Davis was never able to overcome the Lone Star State's inhospotable demographics, and every poll ever taken has given Republican Greg Abbott a clear lead. Davis' campaign has boosted Democrats' long-term prospects here by just by registering and mobilizing many new voters voters, but in the short term, Texas is still a very red state and this is just not Team Blue's year.
• WI-Gov (Tossup to Tossup/Tilt Republican): On Wednesday, Democrats got some bad news when the respected Marquette Law School poll found Republican Gov. Scott Walker surging into a 7-point lead over Mary Burke. Unfortunately, the state Democratic Party's own poll confirms that Burke isn't ahead. A PPP survey found Walker up just 1, but it's not a good sign at all that the best poll Democrats were willing to release shows them still down. Both Marquette and PPP also found that voters have a better view of Walker than Burke. In a polarized contest like this, a small favorability gap in Walker's favor can make all the difference in the world. Both sides are still spending here and a Burke win can't be counted out, but right now, Walker has a small edge.
10:53 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Race Ratings:
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CT-04 (Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic): Republicans haven't shown much interest in Dan Debicella in a long time, and Democrats haven't shown any concern for Rep. Jim Himes either. (Himes is the DCCC's national finance chair, so if he were in trouble, he'd definitely have access to instant help.) This ancestrally red seat was willing to elect moderate Republicans not too long ago, but Himes appears entrenched in this 55-44 Obama district.
• CA-10, IN-02, MN-02, MT-AL, NJ-02, PA-06, PA-08 (Likely Republican to Safe Republican): In a better cycle, Democrats could have made a play for these districts, but this is not that cycle. National Democrats have focused their efforts on other seats and Republicans haven't been concerned with defending them.
11:07 AM PT: Polling:
• AK-Sen: PPP (D): Dan Sullivan (R): 46, Mark Begich (D-inc): 45, other candidates: 4 (Sept. 21: 43-41 Sullivan)
• AR-Sen: Opinion Research Assoc. (D): Mark Pryor (D-inc): 45, Tom Cotton (R): 43, other candidates: 4 (Oct. 26: 45-44 Pryor) (conducted for Arkansas Citizens First Congress)
• CO-Sen: PPP (D): Cory Gardner (R): 48, Mark Udall (D-inc): 45, other candidates: 3 (Oct. 29: 48-48 tie)
• CO-Sen: Quinnipiac: Gardner: 45, Udall: 43, Steve Shogan (I): 6 (Oct. 27: 46-39 Gardner)
• GA-Sen: InsiderAdvantage: David Perdue (R): 48, Michelle Nunn (D): 45, Amanda Swafford (Lib): 3 (Oct. 22: 47-45-4 Nunn)
• GA-Sen: PPP (D): Nunn: 46, Perdue: 46, Swafford: 4 (Oct. 24: 47-47-3 tie) (conducted for Center for American Progress)
• GA-Sen: SurveyUSA: Perdue: 47, Nunn: 44, Swafford: 5 (Oct. 27: 48-45-43 Perdue)
• IA-Sen: PPP (D): Joni Ernst (D): 48, Bruce Braley (R): 47 (Oct. 16: 48-47 Braley) (conducted for Center for American Progress)
• IA-Sen: Quinnipiac: Braley: 47, Ernst: 47 (Oct. 27: 49-45 Ernst)
• KS-Sen: PPP (D): Pat Roberts (R-inc): 47, Greg Orman (I): 46, Randall Batson (Lib): 3 (Oct. 12: 44-41-5 Orman) (conducted for Center for American Progress)
• MI-Sen: PPP (D): Gary Peters (D): 51, Terri Lynn Land (R): 38, other candidates: 4 (Oct. 23: 53-39 Peters)
• MN-Sen: SurveyUSA: Al Franken (D-inc): 51, Mike McFadden (R): 40, other candidates: 6 (Oct.: 16: 53-38 Franken)
• NC-Sen: Harper Polling (R): Thom Tillis (R): 46, Kay Hagan (D-inc): 44, Sean Haugh (Lib): 6 (January: 44-44 tie)
• NC-Sen: PPP (D): Hagan: 46, Tillis: 45, Haugh: 4 (Oct. 29: 47-46 Hagan) (conducted for Center for American Progress)
• NH-Sen: New England College: Scott Brown (R): 49, Jeanne Shaheen (D): 48 (Oct. 26: 48-47 Brown)
• NH-Sen: PPP (D): Shaheen: 49, Brown: 47 (Oct. 21: 49-45 Shaheen) (conducted for Center for American Progress)
• NH-Sen: UNH: Shaheen: 47, Brown: 45 (Oct. 26: 50-42 Shaheen)
11:22 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Race Ratings:
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AK-AL (Safe Republican to Likely Republican): Yes, it's very hard to see longtime Republican Rep. Don Young losing in dark red Alaska. Young's ability to secure earmarks for his state has made him an institution, and he still won in 2008 with an ethics cloud hanging over his head. However, Young's shoot-from-the-hip style earned his plenty of ugly headlines recently, when he made some
particularly vile comments about suicide in front of a high school mourning a student who had taken his own life. A PPP survey just found Young leading his largely unknown opponent Forrest Dunbar only 47-41, and an Ivan Moore poll even found Dunbar up 46-41. Young outperformed his polls in 2008 and it will take a lot to unseat him, but Young's path to re-election isn't as smooth as it used to be.
• MD-06 (Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic): Freshman Democrat John Delaney hasn't been on many target lists, but this contest has become a bit more interesting. At 55-43 Obama, this seat is well to the right of the entire state, and there's a very good chance Republican Larry Hogan will carry it in the gubernatorial race. The GOP is fielding Dan Bongino, the party's 2012 Senate nominee and a former Secret Service agent who is somewhat of a celebrity in right-wing circles. To his credit, Delaney has been taking this contest seriously, spending $409,000 in the last few weeks. It would be remarkable if Bongino even got close, but this race is worth watching on Tuesday just in case.
• MI-06 (Safe Republican to Likely Republican): When Mayday PAC announced it would spend $1.5 million against entrenched Republican Rep. Fred Upton, we wondered if money could will a race into being, and the answer appears to be yes. Upton's Democratic opponent Paul Clements recently released a survey showing the congressman up only 47-43, and Upton never responded with better numbers. The conservative American Future Fund spent $250,000 in last-minute spots for the incumbent, and Upton himself chipped in a quarter mil of his own. Upton has never won re-election with less than 55 percent of the vote and he's still favored in this 50-49 Romney seat, but this race isn't the GOP lock it ought to be.
1:06 PM PT (dreaminonempty): Polltopia: Looking at the past few of months generic congressional ballot polling data, it turns out that Democrats are now positioned better than they were six months ago. But how can that be? The switch to Likely Voter screens obscured this improvement. In other words, if we hadn't had this improvement, the Likely Voter numbers would now be averaging around -5 instead of where they are today:
1:21 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Race Ratings:
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CA-31 (Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic): California's 31st is still the Democrats' best pickup opportunity in the House, but it doesn't seem to be in the bag just yet. National Democrats have been spending against Republican Paul Chabot, and Pete Aguilar has also been running spots against his GOP foe. An October poll from the American Action Network gave Aguilar only a 42-38 lead, and Democrats never responded. In this 57-41 Obama seat, turnout, not Chabot, is Aguilar's real enemy: Without any compelling races at the top of the ticket, it could be difficult to get Democratic-leaning voters out. The good news for Aguilar is that national Republicans haven't been spending much here, and it would still be a surprise if he lost.
• CO-06 (Tossup to Tossup/Tilt Republican): Republican Rep. Mike Coffman became a Democratic target the moment his conservative district was transformed into a swing seat in redistricting. Team Blue recruited former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff to run here, and this has turned into one of the most expensive races in America. Romanoff can win, but with Democrats on the defensive against Colorado, it will not be easy to unseat Coffman. A recent Democratic poll gave Coffman a 1-point lead, and that confirms our perception that the congressman is at least narrowly ahead.
• FL-02 (Tossup/Tilt Republican to Tossup): House Republicans have been mostly on the offensive, but both sides recognize that Rep. Steve Southerland is vulnerable. This North Florida seat went for Romney 52-47 but there are plenty of conservative voters left here who are willing to vote blue downballot. Democrat Gwen Graham has been running a tough campaign and Southerland keeps shooting himself in the foot when it comes to reaching out to women. Southerland may still be able to ride the political currents to re-election but it looks like we're poised for a very close race.
• GA-12 (Lean Democratic to Tossup): Democratic Rep. John Barrow has a well-deserved reputation as a formidable campaigner, surviving two Republican efforts to redistrict him into oblivion. However, he's facing the greatest test of his career as he runs in this 55-44 Romney seat in a bad year for his party. Both sides have been spending big here, and a Landmark Communications poll released Monday gave Republican Rick Allen a 1-point lead. Barrow is one of those politicians you can never count out, but it's anyone's guess if even he can survive on Tuesday.
• IL-13 (Lean Republican to Likely Republican): Freshman Republican Rodney Davis only won this seat in a squeakier in 2012, but he looks much stronger this time around. Democrats were initially excited when they recruited Ann Callis but she's struggled to gain traction in this tough year. While national Democrats have made a few small buys here in recent weeks, it doesn't look like they have much hope that this seat will flip. A few recent polls have given Davis a big lead and Democrats never responded, indicating they aren't too far off the mark. With Democrats on the defensive in Illinois, winning this district is a very tall order.
• MA-06 (Lean Democratic to Tossup/Tilt Democratic): This race continues to confound. National Democrats are acting like Seth Moulton has this seat locked up and have released favorable polls and redirected resources elsewhere. The GOP seems to think they have a live one, though. Team Red has continued to spend big on behalf of Republican Richard Tisei, and they've leaked polls showing him narrowly ahead. Only one independent pollster, the student-run Emerson College Polling Society, has put out any numbers recently, and they've shown small Tisei leads. Obama won 55-44 here but downballot Republicans have done well in this district, and a Tisei victory is quite possible. Moulton is probably the slight favorite, but in a contest this unpredictable, we won't know how things stand until the votes are in.
• MN-07 (Lean Democratic to Tossup): Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson has always won re-election without much trouble, but Republican Torrey Westrom is giving him his first credible challenge in a very long time. Both parties are investing in this rural 54-44 Romney seat and it looks like it could go either way. Westrom recently released an internal poll giving himself a 1-point lead, and Peterson never responded. This is pretty concerning, given that Peterson wasn't shy about touting a gaudy poll in September in response to an earlier set of Westrom numbers showing a competitive race. Peterson is definitely an institution in this conservative area, but as we saw in 2010, even institutions can lose if the political climate is bad enough.
• NE-02 (Tossup to Tossup/Tilt Democratic): If you've been looking for the most vulnerable Republican in the House, look no further. Lee Terry pulled off a weak re-election win in 2012 against an underfunded opponent even as Romney was winning his Omaha-based seat 53-46. Terry found himself in hot water after cluelessly declaring that he'd keep his pay during the shutdown in large part because of his "nice house."
Early voting has been going unusually well for Democrats, and even Republicans have privately acknowledged that Terry is behind. Perhaps the most telling sign came when Terry never responded to a Democratic-leaning pollster that showed him trailing Democrat Ashford by 5 points, even after Terry and his allies ran a high-profile series of controversial (and much-criticized) ads hitting Ashford on crime. In a year like this, the blue team can't take anything for granted, but it seems like even conservative voters are tired of Terry.
• NJ-03 (Tossup/Tilt Republican to Lean Republican): Obama won this open seat 52-47 but it's remained stubbornly Republican downballot. Even in 2008, the late Jon Adler only pulled off a narrow win in this area, and it quickly returned to its GOP roots in 2010 and 2012. Polls show Republican Tom MacArtur with a clear lead over Democrat Aimee Belgard, and Team Blue hasn't responded in a long time with better numbers. The GOP has been spending big here attacking Belgard on taxes while Democrats haven't been willing to match them, giving MacArtur the advantage going into Election Day.
• NY-21 (Lean Republican to Likely Republican): Democrats haven't spent much to help Aaron Woolf in this swingy but ancestrally red seat, and Republicans appear to have declared victory here. Recent polls give Republican Elise Stefanik a wide lead over Woolf, and Woolf hasn't done anything to push back agains them.
• WV-03 (Tossup to Tossup/ Tilt Republican): Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall was lucky enough to draw only weak opponents over the last few cycles as his seat became more and more Republican, but the GOP found a credible candidate this time in party-switcher Evan Jenkins. Initially, Jenkins looked strong, but a series of polls in the spring showed Rahall bouncing back into the lead. However, those days are long past. Both sides have spent heavily here, and they also reportedly agree that Jenkins has a small lead. West Virginia is becoming a nasty place for Democrats, and even the long-serving Rahall isn't immune.
1:40 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Polling:
• AK-AL: PPP (D): Don Young (R-inc): 47, Forrest Dunbar (D): 41, Jim McDermott (Lib): 6
• CA-52: SurveyUSA: Carl DeMaio (R) 45, Scott Peters (D-inc) 44 (Oct. 21: 46-45 DeMaio)
• GA-12: Landmark (R): Rick Allen (R) 47, John Barrow (D-inc) 46 (Nov. 1: 48-44 Allen)
• ME-02: MPRC: Bruce Poliquin (R) 43, Emily Cain (D) 42
• NH-01: New England College: Frank Guinta (R): 52, Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 43 (Oct. 27: 49-43 Guinta)
• NH-01: UNH: Shea-Porter: 47, Guinta: 47 (Oct. 27: 44-40 Shea-Porter)
• NH-02: New England College: Annie Kuster (D-inc): 53, Marilinda Garcia (R): 42 (Oct. 27: 49-42 Kuster)
• NH-02: UNH: Kuster: 49, Garcia: 38 (Oct. 28: 53-30 Kuster)
1:42 PM PT (David Jarman): State legislatures: The most basic building block of electoral politics—the state legislatures—usually gets shoved aside in the last-minute hubbub before Election Day. However, David Jarman takes an in-depth look at where things stand with the most competitive state legislative battles. Most of the danger lies on the Democratic side, with the state Senates in Colorado, Iowa, and Nevada in particular trouble. However, the state Senate in Wisconsin could be a potential bright spot.
1:50 PM PT (Jeff Singer): VA-10: On Friday, House Majority PAC and Patriot Majority announced a major ad buy, quite possibly their last of the cycle. They are spending a combined $418,000 going after Republican Barbara Comstock on ethics. In mid-October the DCCC made news when they pulled out of the district, but House Majority PAC stepped in quickly and calmed speculation that Democrats had given up here. This seat hasn't gotten too much attention since thenm but it's at least a good sign that the national party think that John Foust can pull this off on Tuesday.
2:00 PM PT (Jeff Singer): KS-Sen: Republican Sen. Pat Roberts recently ran a spot starring Kansas State University football coach Bill Snyder, who is phenomenally popular with fans. However, the college is not happy that they're being used in a political ad, and they've asked the campaign to take it down. Snyder himself claims he didn't know that his comments praising Roberts would be used like this but he's apologized to the university, and he has also asked for it to be pulled. Roberts campaign has continued airing it despite saying they would stop. It's a very strange late-minute controversy, but it probably doesn't hurt Roberts to remind voters that Snyder is a friend of his.
2:07 PM PT: Polling:
• AK-Gov: PPP (D): Bill Walker (I): 46, Sean Parnell (R-inc): 45, other candidates: 4 (Sept. 21: 42-41 Walker)
• AR-Gov: Opinion Research Assoc. (D): Mike Ross (D): 43, Asa Hutchinson (R): 39, other candidates: 5 (Oct. 26: 44-42 Ross) (conducted for Arkansas Citizens First Congress)
• CO-Gov: PPP (D): John Hickenlooper (D-inc): 46, Bob Beauprez (R): 46, other candidates: 5 (Oct. 29: 47-47 tie)
• CO-Gov: Quinnipiac: Beaprez: 45, Hickenlooper: 43, other candidates: 6 (Oct. 27: 45-40 Beauprez)
• CT-Gov: Quinnipiac: Dan Malloy (D-inc): 43, Tom Foley (R): 42, Joe Visconti (I): 8 (Oct. 27: 43-43-7 tie)
• CT-Gov: Rasmussen: Malloy: 48, Foley: 47 (Oct. 16: 50-43 Foley)
• FL-Gov: PPP (D): Charlie Crist (D): 44, Rick Scott (R): 44, Adrian Wyllie (Lib): 6 (Oct. 4: 45-43-8 Crist)
• FL-Gov: Quinnipiac: Crist: 42, Scott: 41, Wyllie: 7 (Oct. 27: 43-40-8 Crist)
• FL-Gov: Zogby Analytics (LOL): Crist: 45, Scott: 38, Wyllie: 8
• GA-Gov: InsiderAdvantage: Nathan Deal (R-inc): 47, Jason Carter (D): 44, Andrew Hunt (Lib): 5 (Oct. 22: 44-44-5 tie)
• GA-Gov: SurveyUSA: Deal: 47, Carter: 42, Hunt: 5 (Oct. 27: 46-44-3 Deal)
• IL-Gov: Ogden & Fry (R): Bruce Rauner (R): 49, Pat Quinn (D-inc): 45, Chad Grimm (Lib): 6 (Nov. 1: 49-45-6 Rauner) (conducted for Rauner)
• IL-Gov: PPP (D): Quinn: 47, Rauner: 45, Grimm: 3 (Nov. 2013: 41-38 Quinn)
• KS-Gov: PPP (D): Paul Davis (D): 48, Sam Brownback (R): 44, Keen Umbehr (Lib): 5 (Oct. 12: 42-42-6 tie) (conducted for Center for American Progress)
• ME-Gov: MPRC: Mike Michaud (D): 45, Paul LePage (R-inc): 44, Eliot Cutler (I): 9 (July: 43-41-13 Michaud)
• MI-Gov: PPP (D): Rick Snyder (R-inc): 46, Mark Schauer (D): 45, other candidates: 4 (Oct. 21: 48-48 tie)
• MN-Gov: SurveyUSA: Mark Dayton (D-inc): 47, Jeff Johnson (R): 42 (Oct. 16: 50-40 Dayton)
• NH-Gov: New England College: Maggie Hassan (D-inc): 51, Walt Havenstein (R): 44 (Oct. 24: 47-47 tie)
• NH-Gov: UNH: Hassan: 45, Havenstein: 40 (Oct. 26: 52-37 Hassan)
2:10 PM PT: Note that Rauner's internal comes from an obscure Republican pollster that's really a robocall marketing firm, and "undecided" was not an option.
SUSA's final poll for MN-Gov is pretty blechy, given that Dayton has usually had roughly 10-point leads. It's also a little strange that Al Franken has maintained a double-digit lead (see Senate polling section above) while Dayton has not; generally, the two Democrats have polled very similarly.
2:24 PM PT: YouGov: YouGov conducted last-minute statewide polls in seven states with "fresh samples," though it's not quite clear what means given that YouGov uses opt-in panels. They also released some fairly crazy House polling—fairly crazy because they polled every single district, and fairly crazy because the margins of error range from plus-or-minus 6 percent all the way to 38 percent! In a normal poll, that would imply a sample of just 7 people (though YouGov calculates the margin of error differently than traditional pollsters because they don't use random sampling).
2:28 PM PT: NY-11: This is a pretty amazing slip-up by Mike Grimm (and a really good catch). It won't matter in time for Tuesday, but it could hint at where his legal fortunes are headed afterwards.
2:30 PM PT: Udall's campaign claims its final poll (presumably from Keating Research) has the race tied at 46, but they didn't provide any further details beyond a bare-bones tweet.
2:37 PM PT: KS-Gov, Sen, SoS: This is seriously messed up:
"This is a big change for Kansas. In 2010, we only rejected .03 percent of voter registration applications," said Patrick Miller, a University of Kansas assistant political science professor. "Whereas in 2014, we've suspended or rejected almost 20 percent. That's a massive increase."
The whole article is disturbing, and of course, all of this can be laid at the feet of Republican Secretary of State Kris Kobach. Rick Hasen offered
a really troubling scenario: What if there's a recount in the (very tight) Kansas Senate race, overseen by Kobach, who might possibly be a lame duck at that point if he loses Tuesday night?
2:48 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Polling:
• GA-Sen: PPP (D) (Nov. 1-3): David Perdue (R) 46, Michelle Nunn (D) 45, Amanda Swafford (L) 5
• IA-Sen: PPP (D) (Nov. 1-3): Joni Ernst (R) 49, Bruce Braley (D) 46
• KS-Sen: PPP (D) (Nov. 1-3): Greg Orman (I) 47, Pat Roberts (R-inc) 46
• NC-Sen: PPP (D) (Nov. 1-3): Kay Hagan (D-inc) 46, Thom Tillis (R) 44, Sean Haugh (L) 5
• NH-Sen: PPP (D) (Nov. 1-3): Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc) 49, Scott Brown (R) 47
2:48 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Polling:
• GA-Gov: PPP (D) (Nov. 1-3): Nathan Deal (R-inc) 47, Jason Carter (D) 43, Andrew Hunt (L) 4
• IA-Gov: PPP (D) (Nov. 1-3): Terry Branstad (R-inc) 51, Jack Hatch (D) 40
• KS-Gov: PPP (D) (Nov. 1-3): Paul Davis (D) 46, Sam Brownback (R-inc) 45
• NH-Gov: PPP (D) (Nov. 1-3): Maggie Hassan (D-inc) 51, Walt Havenstein (R) 45
3:08 PM PT: Polling: Some stragglers:
• GA-Sen: Landmark (R): Perdue: 50, Nunn: 46 (Oct. 28: 47-47 tie)
• GA-Gov: Landmark (R): Deal: 51, Carter 45, Hunt: 3 (Oct. 29: 48-46-4 Deal)
• MI-Gov: Clarity Campaign Labs (D): Mark Schauer (D): 45, Rick Snyder (R-inc): 45 (Oct. 20: 44-41 Schauer) (conducted for Progress Michigan)
3:28 PM PT (dreaminonempty): Polltopia: David Rothschild writing at HuffPost Pollster tackles the subject of polling errors, showing that for polls done just before an election, the actual results are within the 95% confidence interval (the famous Margin of Error) only 75% of the time. The margin of error only accounts for one source of polling error, random sampling error, but does not include several other types of error that tend to result in an undercount of Democratic-leaning voters. As a result, the polls wind up being more favorable to Republicans than they ought to be more often than the other way around.
3:39 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Race Ratings:
•
SD-Sen (Likely Republican to Safe Republican): It was fun while it lasted. After facing some scary polls, Republican Mike Rounds and his allies proceeded to nuke Democrat Rick Weiland, and polls show Rounds
with a clear lead. The EB-5 scandal managed to complicate Rounds' life, but it just never went far enough to cost him victory in the end. Both parties have pulled out of the state, all but confirming that this contest is over.
3:40 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Race Ratings:
• WV-02 (Lean Republican to Tossup/Tilt Republican): Normally it would be hard to see Democrats taking back a 60-38 Romney seat that they haven't held in 14 years, especially at a time when they're on the defensive across the Mountain State. However, the GOP gave Team Blue an opening when they nominated Alex Mooney, a former Maryland state senator who hopped the border just to run for office. Democrat Nick Casey has been hammering Mooney for his carpetbagging and he seems to be drawing blood. Both parties have diverted resources here in the final weeks of the race, including the DCCC, which has mostly concentrated on defending incumbents. A flawed candidate like Mooney is still probably at least the slight favorite in a district this red but nothing is assured here.
4:57 PM PT: Polling: Still more stragglers! This has to be the final lot, though....
• MI-Sen: Mitchell Research: Peters: 52, Land: 40 (Oct. 27: 52-38 Peters)
• NC-Sen: National Research (R): Hagan: 41, Tillis: 41, Haugh: 6 (Oct. 18: 42-41-6 Tillis)
• MI-Gov: Mitchell Research: Schauer: 47, Snyder: 47, other candidates: 4 (Oct. 27: 48-43 Snyder)
5:09 PM PT: We've posted a special overnight open thread to tide you over until Tuesday morning's Live Digest.