After reading the spin memos from Rick Scottworld's Tim Saler and Charlie Crist adviser Steve Schale, it's clear that Scott has Crist right where he wants him -- and vice versa.
Right now, the GOP returned-ballot advantage is approximately 100K votes. In shorthand, the GOP partisan advantage is 3.3%.
A year ago ... six months ago ... right after Labor Day, if you had asked each campaign if they would feel good about their chances of victory if the Republicans held a partisan advantage of just over three points, I think both Scottworld and the Crist campaign would have agreed to that parameter. That's what's really fascinating about this race: both sides could be very right about the dynamics of the election, but their guy could still lose.
As a Crist supporter, my nightmare scenario is not a big loss or a recount, it's seeing Crist's campaign essentially change the course of a midterm election in Florida and still come up short five thousand votes.
That said, Saler's most recent memos have a tinge of newspeak to them. A month ago, he was trumpeting the GOP's partisan advantage. But now, with the gap between Republicans and Democrats less than it was in 2010, Saler is arguing that the gap no longer matters because Democrats are cannibalizing their voters from Election Day.
In other words, Saler and Scott have Schale and Crist right where they want them -- and vice versa.