To all those (us) canvassing and calling, I say thanks. What we're doing may nudge more than a few elections in the right direction. But the canonical number for a good ground game is 3%. I'm hopeful another factor plays large in this election -- a factor I've labeled IGaS for I Give a Sh*t because, in the end, voters have to care about who they chose as their representatives. A state where IGaS may be of interest is Arkansas which I'm sure many of us have written off in the Senate race. Let me tell you why.
I few days ago I received an e-mail from Schumer asking for money for the CO and AR senate races. What caught my attention was the following regarding AR:
Early vote turnout in Arkansas Democratic strongholds is up 35% from where it was in 2010
So I gave a few dollars to the campaigns.
Let's crunch some numbers assuming that increase holds true throughout the election. Assume that we have a 33-33-33 percentage split among Ds, Rs and Is and that the Likely Voter poll shows Cotton up 5%. If the Ds can effectively add 10% points to their voters, that has the possibility of negating Cotton's advantage. And to answer what I'm sure is the next thought going through your mind, this 35% bump may have evaded the LV screen.
After I gave the money in response to Schumer's plea, I have been bombarded with requests directly from the Pryor camp asking for money for the ground game. The one that caught my eye was this
We’re on the brink of pulling off a STUNNING VICTORY
So are we to believe that there really is a chance for Pryor? What's strange is the amount of money they claim they need to fund the ground game through the election: $5,538. No, I didn't miss a digit. Roughly $5k. You would think the Dem Senate slush fund could cover that.
Anyway, it's going to be interesting to see if IGaS makes the AR race close. We may get a preview from the NC senate race. If Hagan beats Tillis by only a couple of percentage points, then IGaS didn't take hold. However, if the multiple diaries about Blue Carolina hold sway, then we should expect a Hagan victory in the area of 5%.