(
x-posted from The Albany Project)
So today is the big day. Today is when we find out what New York States many pissed off progressives are going to do in the voting booth about a governor that they despise and that quite publicly despises them right back.
We all already know that Cuomo will crush hapless GOP challenger Rob Astorino like a bug. So the big questions left to be answered have nothing to do with who will actually win the race for governor.
Blake Zeff, as good a writer about all things New York State as anyone these days, describes the scenario facing NY progressives today.
The real questions remaining regard will Cuomo break 60% and, especially, how disaffected progressives vote today. Blake Zeff, one of the best political writers on all things New York working today, broaches the subject this morning at Capital NY.
The most interesting drama is playing out on the Democratic left, where anti-Cuomo sentiment runs high, with no consensus course of action. How it plays out will have consequences for the State Senate, the Working Families Party, and of course for Cuomo himself.
This situation presents a particular scare to the Working Families Party, which now needs to persuade a critical mass of Cuomo-haters to vote for Andrew Cuomo on its line. To be precise, the party needs 50,000 votes in the gubernatorial race to preserve its ballot status, and needs to perform better than other third parties to keep from sliding all the way to the ballot Siberia of Row E or F in future races.
The political perversity reflects the dual nature of the party itself, which was born of the ideological bankruptcy of the old Liberal Party but needs to balance its economic-liberal idealism with the practical political needs of its constituent union backers.
This has put New York progressives in quite a pickle, one designed by Andrew Cuomo himself.
But if Cuomo's goal was to deny dissatisfied liberals a plausible vehicle for their opposition, he's already succeeded.
Reflecting the confusion on the left, The Nation endorsed voting for Cuomo on the W.F.P. line " to pressure Cuomo," while the magazine's own executive editor, Richard Kim, personally called for backing Hawkins.
So what happens today? Here's some best guesses.
How many progressives will vote for Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins today? Well, certainly a hell of a lot more than would have otherwise. I think we can say with confidence that today will be the best showing by a statewide Green Party candidate in New York history. Will it mean all that much for NY Greens in the long run? Probably not. In their two decades of existence, the NY Greens have shown themselves to be spectacularly uninterested in building anything enduring. But they'll have their best day ever today.
How many New York State progressives will hold their noses vote for Cuomo on the Working Families Party Line? WFP's campaign to get liberals to vote strategically for Cuomo on Row D in hopes of holding on to Row D really picked up steam in the last week. My guess is that that effort will pay off. I'm not sure that I ever really thought that WFP would actually not meet the 50,000 vote threshold for maintaining their ballot line, much to Cuomo's chagrin. But I think that Cuomo's quite overt move to harm or even kill WFP has motivated a number of people to do what they thought they would never do earlier this year, actually cast a vote for Andrew Cuomo. They won't get anywhere near the 150K+ plus votes on Row D in 2010, but they'll do considerably better than the 50K they need.
Will anyone remember what the Women's Equality Party was next cycle? Maybe, but I doubt it. WEP is the big wild card today. I honestly don't think there's any way they top WFP, but Cuomo and his money have been hammering the "vote for me on WEP" line really hard over the last week or so. WEP could get 10K votes. They could get 80K. My guess is somewhere closer to 30K. That's an estimate I pulled out of thin air, btw.
How many progressives will simply undervote the governors race and not vote for governor at all? That's another big question and, while it won't have much impact on the final result, it could potentially have a huge impact on both the NY Greens and WFP. If, say, 100K liberals were to decide to not vote the top of the ticket, that becomes damn serious business for them.
What could all this strategery mean for the New York state Senate? If progressives vote for Hawkins, do they vote on the Dem or WFP line for Senate? What do people conned into voting WEP do? The race for the Senate could be extremely close and I doubt we'll know the fate of the chamber tonight. Even small voting pattern anomalies in a few key races could be incredibly consequential.
I'm a pissed off progressive, how should I vote? For governor, you should vote however you feel comfortable. In typical New York fashion, this just a shitshow and there is no pure progressive option in that race. Personally, I'll be voting for Cuomo, a truly vile politician that I despise, on the WFP line. I don't like it, but I'm fairly comfortable with it. Your mileage may vary.
I think Zephyr Teachout articulates where I stand on this pretty well:
"I'm not endorsing [for governor], as you know," she told Capital this weekend. "I genuinely hope that the W.F.P. keeps its ballot line, and I genuinely hope that Cuomo gets under 60 percent [of the vote]. So if my supporters end up half supporting Hawkins, and half voting Cuomo on the W.F.P. line, that's great."
"Both are expressions of populist power, a show of strength for traditional Democratic values," she added. "I think people should vote their conscience if they want to, or vote W.F.P. for strategic reasons. Anyone can feel good about either choice."
But I will say this. Vote no on fake redistricting "reform" measure Prop 1. It sucks.
And vote to wrest control of Senate from the unholy alliance of fake Dems and aging wealth humpers that have made it the place where good policy goes to die for far too long.
Happy voting, everyone. Good luck.
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