I'm sure millions have been following the election this evening. Some will be happy about the results while many others will be very disappointed. But, in concrete terms, what does this mean?
I'm sure the most pressing question is about impeachment. On Fox, this has been a non-stop topic. In fact, if you watched Fox, you would now believe that impeachment was a foregone conclusion and Obama could be out of office a week after the new Senate takes their seats. However, Fox has never been accused of having a firm grasp on reality so could this really happen? The simple answer is, no. The first problem is that no how crazy the top Republicans might be, they have to be aware that the impeachment of the first black president would cause a tremendous backlash, one that could easily reverse Republican's 2010 gains. And there would be nothing for them to gain. Actual conviction would require 67 votes in the Senate and they don't have anywhere near that. Only a fool would set off on a course with nothing to gain and everything to lose.
Second on the agenda would be the repeal of Obamacare. Could they do that? Well, again if you watch Fox, you would probably believe that repeal of Obamacare will be the first bill brought up on the floor of the House the same day the new legislature is sworn in. But, again, that's Fox reality which is nothing like actual reality. With Republicans in control of the Senate, Boehner could bring it up and it would certainly pass. Then it would move to the Senate where it would immediately be filibustered. And, McConnell doesn't have enough votes to break a filibuster. He could change the Senate rules and decrease the number of votes to a simple majority, 51. Okay, that would get the bill through the Senate. Then it would arrive on Obama's desk and immediately be vetoed. It would then go back to the House and require a 2/3rds majority to override the veto. After a gain of 10 seats in the House, Republicans will be at 243. That puts them 49 votes short of the 292 required to override a veto. Further, decreasing the number of votes required to end a filibuster would increase the risk for Republicans in 2016. So, once again, changing the filibuster rules to pass a bill that would get vetoed with no possible way to override would be a bit pointless.
It is much more likely that Republicans will try to chip away at anything progressive with smaller bills. For example, they will try to remove the tax on medical equipment that helps fund Obamacare. They will try to remove the individual mandate. They will try to change the wording so that healthcare is only required for employees who work 40 hours a week. They will also try to throw a bone to Pubs who fear cooties like my own governor, Mike Pence, by weakening the provision for expanded Medicaid. My governor came up with a completely useless proposal to use high deductible insurance and health savings accounts instead. Obviously, people who are below the poverty line cannot afford either of these things. However, hospitals really want the money that expanded Medicaid would bring. Hospitals really, really need that money to decrease the number of uninsured patients. But, you only have two choices: you either go back to the old hospital reimbursement program or you continue with expanded Medicaid. Anything other than these two (like Pence wanted) won't actually put money in the empty pockets of hospitals. So, Republicans are going to get some serious heat on this issue if they don't watch their step and that will push hospital campaign funds in the hands of Democrats in 2016.
Republicans may try to roll back gay marriage. This would be almost pointless because of the established law on this issue. Still, if you have half-crazy televangelists like Pat Robertson in your corner, you might not necessarily understand what established law means. Rolling back gay marriage at this point would require a Constitutional Ammendment. Short of that, you are trying to throw a Wiffle ball into a hurricane wind; it won't get very far.
Expect giveaway tax breaks for the wealthy and large corporations to be on the short list. Definitely, all those big corporate donors and fat-cats like the Walton family, Sheldon Adelson, and the Koch brothers will want more back than they gave. Expect calls to spend more on the military. Expect delirious anti-terrorism and anti-immigration proposals. I wouldn't be surprised by bills to defund Planned Parenthood or defund PBS or defund the National Science Foundation. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised by a bill that required teaching creationism or that insisted that the world was created in six days. But again, these will all get shutdown by filibuster unless McConnell changes the rules. There is actually a lot less maneuvering room for McConnell than many Fox viewers believe. If he doesn't want to change the filibuster rules then his only option is to try to attach bills to other pieces of legislation. I think the bottom line is that Republican leaders are going to have their hands full trying to appease their rabid base, trying to prevent further attacks from the Tea Party, and trying not to upset their donors. My guess would be that they will get less done than they did this year.
Another problem they will have is that unless they figure out some way to shutdown Obamacare, it's only going to grow. It's big now but it will be bigger after open enrollment this Winter. And that open enrollment takes place before the next congress is seated. Then you've got another open enrollment in 2015. Also, if they can't figure some way to change expanded Medicaid (and remember, any real fix means getting money to hospitals, not just stopping it) Republican governors are going to have a hard time holding out until 2016. So, unless Boehner and McConnell are political geniuses (and have been keeping this an absolute secret) things are going to be a lot tougher in 2016 for the Republican party.