Since taking back the Senate and expanding their majority in the House on Tuesday, Mitch McConnell and John Boehner have both established the approval of the Keystone XL pipeline as a central component of their agenda for the next Congress.
Obama has refused to say whether or not he would veto the approval of the pipeline if Congress passed it, and his opposition to Congressional action in the past has been related to the usurpation of presidential power over the review process rather than support for the carbon intensity of tar sands or fossil fuel lock-in.
But, assuming he did decide to veto it, could he?
In the Senate, we would start with 54 supporters—the Republican caucus.
Earlier this year, 11 Democratic senators sent a letter to Obama demanding that he approve the pipeline:
Mark Begich (D-AK)
Joe Donnelly (D-IN)
Kay Hagan (D-NC)
Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND)
Mary Landrieu (D-LA)
Joe Manchin (D-WV)
Claire McCaskill (D-MO)
Mark Pryor (D-AR)
Jon Tester (D-MT)
John Walsh (D-MT)
Mark Warner (D-VA)
Assuming (as I did in my “54”) that Begich does not win (ballots are still being counted), then only 6 of those 11 are returning:
Joe Donnelly (D-IN)
Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND)
Joe Manchin (D-WV)
Claire McCaskill (D-MO)
Jon Tester (D-MT)
Mark Warner (D-VA)
Assuming that no one changes his/her vote, that means that there are 60 secure votes for the Keystone XL pipeline, enough to beat a filibuster.
There are also six senators who did not sign that letter but who have voted for the pipeline in the past.
Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO)
Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE)
Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA)
Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE)
Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD)
Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL)
Five of them (all but Tim Johnson) will be returning to Congress next session.
If you add those five to the base 60, you get a maximum of 65 total votes for the Keystone XL pipeline in the Senate: filibuster-proof, but not veto-proof.
Let’s take a look at the House now. Since the Republicans had the majority (and enlarged it), we know that the pipeline would pass easily. But would they be able to override a veto?
For that, they would need 290 votes. As long as more than 145 Democrats oppose the bill, they could not override a veto.
There are 13 Democrats returning to the 114th Congress who voted for the Keystone XL pipeline last year.
Sanford Bishop (GA-02)
Cheri Bustos (IL-17)
Jim Cooper (TN-05)
Henry Cuellar (TX-28)
Al Green (TX-09)
Gene Green (TX-29)
Ruben Hinojosa (TX-15)
Sean Maloney (NY-12)
Patrick Murphy (FL-18)
Colin Peterson (MN-07)
Terri Sewell (AL-07)
Filemon Vela (TX-34)
John Yarmuth (KY-03)
Jim Costa (CA-16) could end up as a 14th, but his race has not yet been called.
There are 14 Democrats who voted for it in 2011 but not in 2013.
Bob Brady (PA-01)
Mike Doyle (PA-14)
Chaka Fattah (PA-02)
Brian Higgins (NY-26)
Sheila Jackson Lee (TX-18)
Daniel Lipinski (IL-03)
Stephen Lynch (MA-08)
Bill Pascrell (NJ-09)
Ed Perlmutter (CO-07)
Cedric Richmond (LA-02)
Dutch Ruppersberger (MD-02)
Albio Sires (NJ-08)
Bennie Thompson (MS-02)
Peter Visclosky (IN-01)
That gives you a maximum possibility of 28. Even if we were to assume that some of the more conservative Democratic freshman like Gwen Graham (FL-02) or Brad Ashford (NE-02) supported it, there would still not be enough to override the veto.