Democratic Rep. Ron Barber (middle)
Several races remain uncalled as of Friday morning. You can check who has won each key race at our
race tracker here, and you can also keep an eye on our continuously updated
list of uncalled races. (We're relying on
CNN's election results page for calls.)
• AZ-02: Democratic Rep. Ron Barber narrowly carried this swing seat in 2012 against Republican Martha McSally, and each candidate came back for a rematch this cycle. Both parties worked hard to win it, and once again it's too close to call days after the election. For the moment, McSally holds a 341-vote lead over Barber. The good news for Barber is that all of conservative Cochise County is finished reporting, and only Pima County provisional ballots are left.
There are 9,335 valid provisionals in all of Pima County, but it's not clear how many are in AZ-02. About 59 percent of Pima's population is in the 2nd District but 67 percent of all votes cast in Pima were cast in AZ-02 this cycle. Assuming 67 percent of these provisionals are for the 2nd District, Barber needs to win these 6,200 ballots by about a 5.5 percent margin to pull ahead. This is doable but it's definitely going to be close. If there are fewer than 6,200 ballots, Barber's math gets even steeper.
Pima is expected to count the remaining ballots on Monday, so hopefully we'll have our answers soon. Don't expect things to wrap up quickly though: McSally's camp is preparing to challenge Pima provisional ballots.
Head below the fold for a look at where other uncalled contests stand.
• AK-Sen: The count hasn't changed since Election Night, with Republican Dan Sullivan holding an 8,149 vote lead over Democratic incumbent Mark Begich. However, we recently learned that 40,000 ballots will be counted on Tuesday, which will give us a better idea of where things stand and what is left. It's unclear how many total votes need to be counted, but assuming it's 50,000 like the Alaska Dispatch and APRN Alaska News estimate, Begich would need to win them 56-40. If there are fewer ballots, he'll need to do even better.
This is pretty tough math for Democrats. In 2008 Begich won the late ballots by 7 points, about a third of what he needs now. Begich can win if these remaining ballots disproportionately come from rural Alaska, a heavily Native-American area where Begich ran the table this year. The problem is, it's far from clear that there are enough rural ballots left: The Dispatch and APRN project that more of the uncounted votes come from Sullivan areas. At this point there is a lot of uncertainty and we'll need to wait until Tuesday for our answers, but Begich needs everything to go right for him to win.
• AK-Gov: Since Tuesday, independent Bill Walker has held a 3,165 vote lead over Republican Gov. Sean Parnell. If there are 50,000 ballots out like the Dispatch and APRN project, Parnell needs to win them 51-45. There seem to be almost as many Walker areas out as Parnell strongholds, but again, there is a lot of uncertainty here.
• VT-Gov: This race is settled until January. Because Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin only won a plurality of the vote against Republican Scott Milne, the state legislature will need to select a winner. The last time the legislature picked the candidate with fewer votes was 1853, and with Democrats dominating both chambers there's no real risk they choose Milne.
• CA-07: For the last few days, Republican Doug Ose has held a 2,183-vote lead over Democratic incumbent Ami Bera, with about 43,000 left to count. Bera needs to win these 52.5-47.5 to pull ahead. Counting is scheduled to resume on Monday at 7:00 PM Eastern.
• CA-16: As of Monday morning, Republican Johnny Tacherra holds a 741-vote lead over Democratic Rep. Jim Costa in a race that was supposed to be safely Democratic. A number of late ballots have been counted since Friday but they all seem to have canceled each other out, since the margin has barely moved.
There are 722 ballots left in Madera and 1,505 ballots left in Merced, two counties that backed Tacherra. However, Fresno is far less certain. There are 20,400 ballots left in the entire county but an unknown number are for CA-16. About 23 percent of Fresno's votes were cast in the 16th District this year so that would give us 4,692 ballots remaining Fresno ballots for CA-16.
Costa would need to win the 6,919 estimated remaining ballots by about 11 points to pull ahead. This looks very possible: If the remaining ballots break the same way the rest of each county voted, Costa should net 838 votes, just enough to win. A Fresno update is expected on Wednesday, so hopefully we'll know soon where things stand.
• CA-26: On Friday, late ballots boosted Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley's lead from 530 votes to 1,028. There are reportedly 40,000 ballots left that need to be counted: Republican Jeff Gorell would need to win them by about 3 points to prevail. As long as late ballots continue to break Democratic like they usually do in the Golden State (and have so far in this race), Brownley should keep her lead.
• NY-25: There have been no new developments here in recent days. Rep. Louise Slaughter still has a 651 vote lead over Republican Mark Assini in this shockingly tight race, and she has declared victory. Assini has not conceded but the math doesn't look great for him. There are reportedly only 1,200 to 1,300 absentees left and an unknown number of affidavit ballots. The count is expected to be done on Wednesday.
Late Calls: Since Friday afternoon, a number of races have been called:
• CA-09, 52: We have calls for Democratic incumbents Jerry McNerney and Scott Peters. McNerney's 52-48 victory over unheralded Republican Tony Amador is definitely an unpleasant surprise for him. By contrast, Peters' 51-49 margin over Republican Carl DeMaio is a big relief for Team Blue. This San Diego seat went for Obama only 52-46 and was a top GOP target all cycle, and DeMaio was one of his party's most hyped recruits. In the final weeks of the campaign a former aide accused DeMaio of sexual harassment; nothing was ever proven, but it's very possible that the story cost DeMaio a win.
• CA-17, WA-04: Two intra-party races have also been settled. In California's 17th District, Rep. Mike Honda has defeated fellow Democrat Ro Khanna 52-48, and Khanna has conceded. Khanna is young and ambitious and we almost certainly haven't heard the last of him. Honda himself doesn't sound like he's going anywhere though, declaring in his victory speech that this will not be his last term. Finally, in Washington's 4th District, Dan Newhouse has defeated fellow Republican Clint Didier 51-49. Both candidates are quite conservative but Newhouse hails from the establishment wing of the party, while Didier is more tea party flavored. This is Didier's third defeat in as many cycles.