Wow wasn't 2014 a bruising midterm election? Except in California where (assuming Costa (CA-16) and Bera (CA-07) hang on) we have made a net gain of 1 (CA-31) to move up to holding 39/53 Congressional House Districts in California. Wow dizzying heights indeed.
So now onto 2016 where with presidential turnout we should be playing both defense AND offense.
Below the fold for details.....................(and a surprise prediction)
UPDATE Now includes Cook PVI's.
14 potential targets on offense (defense is obvious) which of course begs the question which ones can/should we realistically go after? Of course incumbent quality, retirements, scandals and recruiting coups and failures can change the dynamics in any District (and probably will) but generically, on paper, we have not yet maxed out.
So lets start with the districts which really are Ruby Red and highly unlikely to be competitive in 2016.
CA-01
PVI - R+10
2012 House Result: LaMalfa (R) 57.3%, Reed (D) 42.7% - Reed lost all 12 Counties in the District.
2014 House Result: LaMalfa (R) 61.1%, Hall (D) 38.9%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 42.73%, D - 30.82%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 42.32%, D - 30.52%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 41.90%, D - 29.41%
2008 Pres - Obama 42%, McCain 53%
2012 Pres - Obama 40.3%, Romney 56.6%
Like the 4th and 8th this Inland District was drawn to elect a Republican. And it will. It is also getting slowly redder in a state that is heading in the opposite direction.
CA-04
PVI - R+10
2012 House Result: McClintock (R) 61%, Uppal (D) 39%
2014 House Result: McClintock (R) 60.4%, Moore (R) 39.6%, No Democrat filed!
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 45.95%, D - 29.76%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 45.48%, D - 29.18%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 44.41%, D - 28.55%
2008 Pres - Obama 43%, McCain 54%
2012 Pres - Obama 39.5%, Romney 57.9%
Another inland Californian District that was drawn to elect a Republican. Slightly bluing but not even remotely enough to make a difference in 2016.
CA-08
PVI - R+10
2012 House Result: Cook (R) 57.4%, Imus (R) 42.6%
2014 House Result: Cook (R) 67.7%, Conaway (D) 32.3%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 42.15%, D - 32.69%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 41.28%, D - 32.48%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 39.44%, D - 32.17%
2008 Pres - Obama 42%, McCain 55%
2012 Pres - Obama 41.7%, Romney 55.6%
The third of the Inland, please elect me a Republican, Districts and arguably the safest of the three (I think it is less safe than both the 1st and the 4th). Bit of a drop off in Repub Voter Reg by the way.
CA-22
PVI - R+10
2012 House Result: Nunes (R) 62.3%, Lee (D) 37.7%
2014 House Result: Nunes (R) 72.3%, Aguilera-Marrero (D) 27.7%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 45.19%, D - 34.85%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 45.32%, D - 33.36%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 45.04%, D - 32.23%
2008 Pres - Obama 42%, McCain 55%
2012 Pres - Obama 41.6%, Romney 56.6%
Lee in 2012 was a good, enthusiastic campaigner who wasn't too shabby on the fundraising front. And he got smashed. Badly. Albeit not as badly as Aguilera-Marrero in 2014!
This District won't be going blue any time soon.
CA-23
PVI - R+16!
2012 House Result: McCarthy (R) 73.2%, Phillips (I) 26.8%
2014 House Result: McCarthy (R) 75.2%, Garcia (D) 24.8
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 47.48%, D - 29.84%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 46.52%, D - 29.73%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 45.03%, D - 29.44%
2008 Pres - Obama 36%, McCain 61%
2012 Pres - Obama 36.13%, Romney 61.51%.
Surprise surprise the District of the House Majority Leader is Ruby Red and looking like staying that way. Nothing to see here move right along.
CA-42
PVI - R+10
2012 House Result: Calvert (R) 60.6%, Williamson (D) 39.4%
2014 House Result: Calvert (R) 65.9%, Sheridan (D) 34.1%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 45.42%, D - 30.04%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 45.11%, D - 29.73%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 44.44%, D - 29.00%
2008 Pres - Obama 43%, McCain 54%
2012 Pres - Obama 41.38%, Romney 56.53%
15+ point GOP Voter Registration advantage, Obama down and the GOP nominee up from 2008-12 means that the first of the So Cal Ruby Red Districts is likely to stay that way.
CA-45
PVI - R+7
2012 House Result: Campbell (R) 58.5%, Kang (D) 41.5%
2014 House Result: Walters (R) 65.1%, Leavens (D) 34.9%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 44.90%, D - 28.02%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 45.11%, D - 29.76%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 43.00%, D - 28.11%
2008 Pres - Obama 43%, McCain 54%
2012 Pres - Obama 41.4%, Romney 54.78%.
In 2012 Sukhee Kang ran hard and fell well short. A more than creditable effort although he did run a couple of points behind Obama. Leavens got smashed in 2014.This district is slowly bluing but still has an almost 15 point GOP registration advantage. The stats are just too overwhelming for me to think that this So Cal district will flip any time soon.
CA-48
PVI - R+7
2012 House Result: Rohrabacher (R) 61%, Varasteh (D) 39%
2014 House Result: Rohrabacher (R) 64.1%, Savary (D) 35.9%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 44.79%, D - 28.45%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 43.88%, D - 28.38%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 43.83%, D - 28.20%
2008 Pres - Obama 46%, McCain 51%
2012 Pres - Obama 43.00%, Romney 54.80%
The stats speak for themselves really. Not much is going to be happening here in yet another Ruby Red So Cal district any time soon alas.
CA-49
PVI - R+4
2012 House Result: Issa (R) 58.2%, Tetalman (D) 41.8%
2014 House Result: Issa (R) 60.3, Peiser (D) 39.7
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 42.77%, D - 28.68%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 41.49%, D - 28.79%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 40.18%, D - 28.82%
2008 Pres - Obama 49%, McCain 48%
2012 Pres - Obama 45.66%, Romney 52.40%
This is a lost cause for the next few cycles at least, as is the case with most of the cluster of Repub So Cal districts that this is part of. The 11 point GOP Voter Reg advantage is also a rather tall order.
CA-50
PVI - R+14
2012 House Result: Hunter (R) 67.7%, Secor (D) 32.3%
2014 House Result: Hunter (R) 71.3%, Kimber (D) 28.7%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 47.40%, D - 25.97%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 46.25%, D - 25.97%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 44.70%, D - 25.64%
2008 Pres - Obama 39%, McCain 58%
2012 Pres - Obama 37.56%, Romney 60.41%
Despite the GOP Voter Reg decline this is yet another (and the last) of the GOP So Cal Ruby Red districts that isn't going blue any time soon.
They are a bunch of ugly districts are the Ruby Red ones. That is not to say that a super star or raging populist Democratic candidate can't make any of these districts competitive. It is to say that a generic D candidate can't and won't make these districts competitive in 2016. Retirements and scandal can also obviously change the dynamics overnight.
The next District isn't at the competitive stage yet but is moving that way. Call it the Longshot:
CA-39
PVI - R+5
2012 House Result: Royce (R) 57.8%, Chen (D) 42.2%
2014 House Result: Royce (R) 68.6%, Anderson(D) 31.4%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 40.46%, D - 32.34%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 39.23%, D - 32.34%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 38.46%, D - 32.42%
2008 Pres - Obama 47%, McCain 49%
2012 Pres - Obama 47.09%, Romney 50.75%
Jay Chen had a real good run at this in 2012 and fell well short but the trends do not portend well for Ed Royce; another GOP incumbent who may retire soon. The difference here is Orange County and if that continues to Blue this district will be competitive sooner rather than later.
This Longshot District WILL be competitive the only question is when........
A new category for me is next; the should be but almost certainly won't be competitive:
CA-10
PVI - R+1
2012 House Result: Denham (R) 52.7%, Hernandez (D) 47.3%
2014 House Result: Denham (R) 56.4%, Eggman (D) 43.6%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 38.29%, D - 40.89%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 38.66%, D - 39.70%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 39.75%, D - 37.11%
2008 Pres - Obama 50%, McCain 47%
2012 Pres - Obama 50.6%, Romney 47.0%
Honestly Jeff Denham reminds me of former House member Mike Castle (R-DE); an unbeatable incumbent with significant cross over appeal. Hernandez got close in 2012 and if he runs again watch this space but note that this District is Reddening not Bluing as the Voter Reg stats show. Yep there are now more registered Republicans than Democrats, unlike in 2012. Feel free to disagree in the comments but I think this one is probably off the table in 2016.
Now for the should be competitive Districts (at long last):
CA-21
PVI-D+2
2012 House Result: Valadao (R) 58.1%, Hernandez (D) 41.9%
2014 House Result: Valadao (R) 58.5, Renteria (D) 41.5%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 34.35%, D - 45.40%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 32.65%, D - 47.31%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 30.98%, D - 47.66%
2008 Pres - Obama 52%, McCain 46%
2012 Pres - Obama 54.6%, Romney 43.5%
In two years the GOP Voter Registration has dropped by 1 2/3% in this District. And seriously a 17 point Dem Voter Registration advantage and climbing???
One of the Californian Districts where midterm turnout drop off was always going to be a huge problem. And it was. And yet Valadao did not a lot better than 2012.
Amanda Renteria PLEASE run again. John Hernandez; Please don't.
CA-25
PVI - R+3
2012 House Result: McKeon (R) 54.8%, Rogers (D) 45.2%
2014 House Result: Knight (R) 53.3, Strickland (R) 46.7% - No Democrat got through the open primary
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 40.72%, D - 35.33%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 39.42%, D - 35.41%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 37.19%, D - 37.24%!
2008 Pres - Obama 49%, McCain 48%
2012 Pres - Obama 47.85%, Romney 49.66%
Okay okay I get that this is an unusual prediction, particularly given that no Dem made it out of the open Primary. But consider this:
1) This District is bluing reasonably quickly and now has more registered Dems than Repubs (unlike 2 years ago).
2) The 3rd placed Open Primary finisher, Democrat Lee Rogers was only 6.2% behind second place with another Democrat garnering 9.5% of the vote.
3) Knight knocked off Strickland who it was assumed would win. Strickland presumably won't run again in 2016, leaving presumably only one high profile, vote gathering, Repub candidate.
4) Knight will be a first term incumbent in 2016.
5) Presidential year turnout vs Midterm turnout.
Can we win it? Maybe. Should we try? Absolutely
Interested to hear your thoughts in comments.