I've edited and added updates several times, most recently 11/20. The most recent info on this race is at the bottom.
Many are already inclined to write off AZ-02 as just another disappointing 2014 Congressional seat lost in a red district in a red state. After all, it's an R+3 seat and GOP independent expenditures in this race were the 4th highest for a House race in the country. O ye of little faith:AZ may yet defy expectations and return 5 Democrats to Congress again in 2014.
All of the statewide elections (except Governor) appear much closer than the partisan lean of the state would seem to indicate, especially this cycle. Both of the other two swing seats were won handily by the incumbent Democrats, Kyrsten Sinema and Ann Kirkpatrick. Roughly 20% of the vote was still outstanding Wednesday in the form of hand-delivered early ballots, and provisionals. These often differ appreciably from other votes in their partisan composition.
AZ-02 took 12 days to count in 2012. Ron Barber was written off by many on election night in 2012, but his vote total improved by ~3700 votes over election night totals, as hand-delivered early ballots and provisional ballots were counted.
Wednesday night, Barber trailed by just 1293 votes (down from 2078 earlier, after Cochise county posted returns). 10's of thousands of votes remained to be counted in Pima County, where Barber is generally considered at an advantage.
http://www.azcentral.com/...
Barber's margin improved by about 10% of the number of total ballots counted in the ballot dump by Pima on Wednesday. Prospects for eventual victory look good.
http://www.tucsonweekly.com/...
Here's a quote from a Barber spokesperson:
Vote counts will go up and down as the remaining early and provisional ballots are counted, but in the end, when the votes are counted, we’re fully confident that we will continue to win the early ballots, and Ron Barber will win another term in Congress.
http://tucson.com/...
P.S. As per the above article, because of technical glitches in counting the vote in Cochise county, the appropriate comparison to 2012 is not to the 36 vote margin on election night, but to the 2078 vote margin Wednesday am.
P.P.S. See progressive changes in race status over the fold
Pima County dropped another batch of results Thursday which reduced McSally's lead from 1293 to 363. The previous batch (Wednesday) improved the margin from 2078 to 1293. About half of the hand-delivered and provisional ballots in Pima County had been counted as of Thursday night. There were still about 3222 uncounted ballots in Cochise county, which are likely to favor McSally.
http://www.tucsonweekly.com/...
5:47 PM PT: Ron tweeted link and plea an hour ago: https://secure.actblue.com/...
You can make "Donations to the Ron Barber Recount Fund [which] will be used to pay expenses in connection with election recounts and contests, and will not be used for the purpose of influencing a federal election."
Friday update begins here
Friday, Cochise made two vote dumps, and Pima made one. McSally now leads by 509 votes with all votes counted in Cochise. More than 10,000 ballots remain to be counted in Pima. Most of these are provisionals. I now (Friday night) expect Barber's eventual winning margin to be around 500 votes (down from my ~1000+ projection Thursday). It could well be even tighter. If it is within 0.1% (around 225 votes) a recount will be triggered under state law.
In the vote dump midday Friday by Cochise county, which included several thousand ballots (all remaining non-provisionals in Cochise) McSally gained ~409 votes in the margin, so these ballots appear to have been ~60/40 McSally, like the county overall.
In the vote dump by Pima late Friday afternoon, Barber improved back to 317 votes down, a gain of 455 votes in the margin. This included results from ~16,000 hand-delivered "early" ballots, of which it appears over 10,000 were in this race, so Barber's winning margin for these ballots was significantly worse than among the previous data dump or for the county as a whole. In any event, more ballots remain to be counted in Pima, including over 10,000 provisionals and several thousand more 'early' ballots.
In the vote dump by Cochise Friday night, which included ~1100 provisionals, and completed the count of all or almost all Cochise county ballots, McSally improved by ~192 votes, doing nearly, but not quite as well as among all Cochise county voters.
The upshot is that it looks like this is going faster than in 2012, but the pattern is the same, and odds are that Barber will win clearly but VERY narrowly when all ballots have been counted.
Sunday update
McSally is now attempting to disenfranchise provisional voters who voted in areas where Barber has an advantage. In my opinion this represents a tacit admission that she recognizes she will lose if all votes are counted.
http://m.tucsonweekly.com/...
MCSally's lead has narrowed again with a Sunday ballot drop by Pima County. Her margin is back down to 341 votes, after about ~3300 more 'early' hand-delivered ballots were counted in Pima county, about 2/3rds of which were in CD-02. About 10K provisional ballots remain to be counted in Pima county. No ballots are believed to be outstanding in McSally's base of Cochise county.
http://www.tucsonweekly.com/...
Tuesday 11/11 am update
A vote drop of ~4904 Pima county ballots (~3210 in CD-02) Monday gained Barber just 162 votes in the margin. He now trails by 179 votes with ~4000 ballots remaining. Given that an automatic recount will be triggered if the margin is less than 0.1% (~221 votes), it seems very likely now that this will go to a recount. I expect another ballot drop today with the remainder of Pima county's ballots. I now expect Barber to take the lead only narrowly, driving a recount. The likely range of the movement in the margin is probably 150-400 votes, at a guess, meaning we are almost assured a recount now. This one is going to keep going for weeks, most likely.
http://www.tucsonweekly.com/...
11/11 afternoon update
Another vote drop brings the margin to a 133 vote lead for McSally. Now I'm scared. Another 2676 votes counted in CD-02 and we gained just 46 votes. That's probably almost all of the ballots.
Thursday 11/20 update
McSally declared victory based on her unofficial lead of 161 votes on 11/12 (she gained 28 based on discovery of an uncounted batch of 208 ballots that day). Barber has not conceded and continues to fight. There will be an automatic recount, barring further changes in the vote count prior to certification. One focus of Barber's efforts is to count (before certification) some of the ballots which were initially disqualified on technicalities (disenfranchising voters whose intent was clear) in the uncertified count. Here's an article from The Hill describing the first salvo in that battle, which Barber lost when Pima County declined (on a 4-1 vote by the 3-2 Dem controlled board) to delay certification:
thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/224800-house-race-too-close-to-call-in-arizona
Barber continues to aggressively press the fight:
A Democratic ally said the campaign will issue a similar provisional ballots appeal to Bennett in hopes of getting the votes included before the recount gets underway. If that’s unsuccessful, they will make the same petition to the Maricopa County judge who ends up overseeing the recount, and will perhaps even challenge the result of the recount itself.