A Cuban American celebrates the Obama announcement.
Every serious Republican candidate for president will be against normalizing relations with Cuba.
That's a given.
In order to win the nomination, you’re going to need the support of lots of older voters. For them, the Cold War defined their political coming-of-age and most of their lives. Vigorous anti-communism was at the core of what it meant to be a conservative, along with support for low taxes, small government, and traditional social values. Their kids and grandkids may see opposition to communism as an issue that’s in the past, but it’s still important to the way those older voters think about the world.
This means that while some Republican politicians (like Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona) may support normalizing relations, if you want to get the GOP presidential nomination, it just isn’t an option.
To repeat yet again, the only age bracket even of Cuban Americans themselves that is
not for a normalization of relations is the
over 70 crowd. This is, unfortunately for Republicans, their base (see: Fox News demographics) and so regardless of what every other voter wants, those are the Crazy Republican Primary votes they need to advance.
Ah, but will this need to take an extremist-right position harm the eventual Republican candidates?
[B]y bringing the issue to the front pages and the top of the policy agenda, Barack Obama has forced them to loudly take a position that will hurt whoever the nominee is in the general election.
Hmm. Perhaps—but it's also true that for the vast majority of Americans, our foreign policy against Cuba is close to a non-issue. Loud opposition to the change will further strain relationships between Republicans and young (under 70, that is) Cuban Americans, specifically, and that may play a role in further disillusionment of the one Hispanic group that the Republicans have not systemically demeaned and insulted and lost the votes of for a generation, and that's not nothing.
But it's also likely the eventual nominee can temper their primary remarks on Cuba policy, if it even comes up, in the same manner as Republicans regularly shift their other remarks when needing to play to a wider audience. By then the news cycle will likely be overtaken by brand-new revelations about Benghazi, twelfth iteration, or the all-but-required Iran fearmongering, or ISIS, or border security or any of the other standbys. Except within the Cuban-American community itself, will Cuban policy shifts change any voters' minds on either side of the aisle—or do only the most ideologically rigid of voters even have strong opinions on the issue to begin with?