Republican Rep. Michael Grimm
On Tuesday, Republican Rep. Michael Grimm
pleaded guilty to tax evasion, months before his trial was to start. Grimm was accused of falsifying tax returns for his restaurant before he was elected to Congress in 2010, and he is scheduled to be sentenced in June. Grimm quickly declared that he would not resign from the House, despite previously promising to leave if convicted.
Grimm has been under an ethics cloud almost since his tenure began. As the investigation was beginning in 2012, Democrats targeted Grimm's Staten Island seat, but Mark Murphy fell 5 points short. After the congressman was indicted in April of 2014, it looked like he was finished. Grimm's fundraising dried up and national Republicans refused to come to his aid, and Democrats were once again aiming for this 52-47 Obama seat. The fact that Grimm threatened to throw a reporter over the House balcony while the camera was rolling didn't help things.
However, Grimm quickly worked to portray himself as a victim of government persecution, and he struck a chord with plenty of Staten Islanders. This is a borough that has long felt neglected by its federal, state, and local governments, and Grimm stoked these resentments. The Republican also benefited from Democratic foe Domenic Recchia's many gaffes, winning by 13 points when all was said and done.
It's unclear what will happen next. House Republicans will not be happy to have a convicted felon in their ranks, and Grimm will undoubtedly serve as an embarrassing distraction for Speaker John Boehner. While Boehner will likely pressure him to resign, the very stubborn Grimm will not be easy to dislodge. The House could theoretically expel Grimm but this is unlikely. As Roll Call notes, this punishment is usually reserved for crimes committed while in office. It's quite possible that the Republican caucus could be stuck with Grimm whether they like it or not.
If Grimm runs for re-election in 2016, there's no telling what will happen. Grimm proved in 2014 that he could successfully tap into his district's latent resentments, but it will be harder for him to argue that he's a persecuted innocent man now that he's actually pleaded guilty. The incumbent could face a primary challenge, though there's the risk that too many candidates could split the anti-Grimm vote enough to let him win with a plurality.
Democrats will be looking to put this swing seat back into play whether or not Grimm is on the ballot. Former Rep. Michael McMahon, whom Grimm unseated in 2010, is openly considering a rematch. However, McMahon flirted with a bid in 2012 and 2014 before declining, and there's no guarantee this time will be any different. If he declines, Team Blue will be looking for another Staten Islander to carry the baton, but the party's bench isn't great here.
This is still a very volatile situation, and we'll see in the coming days and weeks if Boehner and his allies are determined to get a resignation out of Grimm, or if he'll continue to defy political gravity.