Happy New Year to DK! Unfortunately, this won't be a happy blue year, as the new Republican-controlled House and Senate will be seated on Saturday. But doesn't mean that we can't consider what might have been. Part 2 of my Cube Root Congress series begins below the squiggle.
Part 1 -- North Dakota, South Dakota
Today, we will be looking at the next four smallest states of the Union. Each would gain one seat in a Cube Root Congress.
Our first state is Alaska, which was a mixed bag for Team Blue in 2014. We lost a Democratic senator, but we gained an independent governor and Democratic lieutenant governor. Don't expect anything good from this state's redistricting.
1st District (blue): Pretty much anything that isn't between Anchorage and Juneau. Fairbanks, Nome, and Barrow are the major cities here, although some of the Anchorage suburbs are included. This would become America's largest congressional district by land area. Don Young (R-Ft. Yukon) could serve here until he dies or goes to jail. 66.5% McCain, so Safe R.
2d District (green): Anchorage and Juneau. Only 53.3% McCain, so it has the potential to elect a conservative Democrat. For now, though, I'll call it Lean R.
4 Electoral Votes: Safe R
The next state is Delaware. This state should look much prettier to you than Alaska.
1st District (blue): This district is fully contained within New Castle County. It starts in Wilmington, then moves down to Newark and Middletown. John Carney (D-Wilmington) is entrenched in this 68.4% Obama district. Safe D
2d District (green): The Delaware River sections of New Castle County down to the southern two-thirds of the state. The capital of Dover is here. This part of the state is more conservative, but at 54.8% Obama, it should have no problem consistently electing Democrats. Lean D
4 Electoral Votes: Safe D
That's it for the two-district states. Up next is New Hampshire, our first look at a state with three new districts.
As you can see, I cheated on this one. It's impossible to keep three districts within 500 people of the average population. The precincts in this state are made up of thousands, even tens of thousands, of residents.
1st District (blue): Looks pretty similar to the current 1st District, but without Manchester. Rochester and Portsmouth anchor this 52.9% Obama district. It's an open seat, and Carol Shea-Porter lives in Rochester. She can go for Act III in her congressional career. Lean D with Shea-Porter, Tossup otherwise.
2d District (green): South central part of the state. Concord, Manchester, and Nashua are here. This district looks disjointed just below Manchester, but I assure you that it's not. A very thin voting precinct connects the two sections. Both of this state's current representatives--Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) and Frank Guinta (R-Manchester)--are forced into this district. Since this district is 53.9% Obama, Kuster has the advantage... especially in a presidential year. Guinta could move to the less liberal 1st District, but he'd probably have to face Shea-Porter again, and in a more positive Democratic atmosphere. Tossup/Tilt D with Guinta, Lean D without Guinta.
3d District (purple): Although Keene and Laconia are the only significant cities in this district, this is actually the bluest of the three. 56.3% Obama. Any Democratic state legislator who wants this seat can have it. Safe D
5 Electoral Votes: This once reliable Republican state has shifted dramatically in recent presidential elections. I'm pretty sure in my 2016 prediction here. Lean D
Our final state for today is New Hampshire's neighbor, Maine. Home of a certain idiot governor who shan't be named.
1st District (blue): Portland, Brunswick, and down the Atlantic coast. It's an open seat in a 62.5% Obama district. Former Democratic representative Tom Allen still lives in Portland. If he wants his seat back, he can have it. With or without Allen, this is Safe D territory.
2d District (green): Far outskirts of Portland/Brunswick. The capital of Augusta is here, as are Auburn, Lewiston, and Rockland. Both of this state's reps--Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven) and Bruce Poliquin (R-Oakland)--live in this 56.7% Obama district. Poliquin has no chance. He may just retire. Lean D with Poliquin, Safe D without Poliquin.
3d District (purple): The northern half of the state. Includes Bangor and the college town of Orono. Poliquin's 2014 opponent, Emily Cain (D), lives in Orono. With an electorate more Democratic-friendly in 2016, she should have no trouble winning this 53.5% Obama seat. Lean D either way.
5 Electoral Votes: Maine splits up its votes, but Democratic presidential candidates usually get all of the votes, anyway. The moderate 3d District would be Lean D, but everything else is Safe D.
Here are our new running totals:
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: AK, DE, ME, MT, ND, NH, RI, SD, VT, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 7 (added DE-1, ME-1, ME-2, NH-3)
Lean D: 6 (added DE-2, ME-3, NH-1, NH-2)
Tossup: None
Lean R: 3 (added AK-2)
Safe R: 4 (added AK-1)
Total: 13 D, 0 Toss, 7 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 6 (added DE-1, ME-1, NH-3)
Lean D: 4 (added DE-2, ME-2, ME-3)
Tossup: 3 (added NH-1, NH-2)
Lean R: 3 (added AK-2)
Safe R: 4 (added AK-1)
Total: 10 D, 3 Toss, 7 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: AK, DE, ME, MT, ND, NH, RI, SD, VT, WY
Safe D: DE (4), ME (4), RI (4), VT (3) = 15
Lean D: ME (1), NH (5) = 6
Tossup: None
Lean R: MT (4) = 4
Safe R: AK (4), ND (4), SD (4), WY (3) = 15
Total: 21 D, 0 Toss, 19 R