On June 9, Eric Cantor looked like he had it all. He was the number two Republican in the House, and he was (at worst) only years away from succeeding John Boehner as speaker. Cantor represented a safely red district, and his primary challenger Dave Brat was nothing to write home about. While Brat had been cultivating tea party support he had little money or name recognition, and no well-funded outside groups were coming to his aid. A pair of polls also gave Cantor a clear lead going into the primary. Outside the Brat household, you would have been hard-pressed to find anyone who seriously thought Cantor was in danger.
On June 10, Brat unseated Cantor. The result wasn't even close, with Brat prevailing 56-44. Political observers were left wondering what happened? Was Cantor's loss a backlash from his support (at least to some degree) for immigration reform? Did Democratic voters turn out in droves against the hated majority leader? Did redistricting fell Cantor?
Daily Kos Elections' David Jarman looked at Cantor's defeat and presented perhaps the best explanation for this upset: Cantor simply had lost his connection with the district. The congressman was rarely in town and when he was, he was inaccessible to voters. Real Clear Politics' Sean Trende, a former Cantor constituent, highlighted how Cantor's staff was unresponsive, and how Cantor was barely seen at home. Cantor's office was also deceptive when it came to interacting with conservative activists. Cantor may have not known or cared, but in his quest for national power he had burned one too many bridges back home.
Cantor's re-election campaign also bears a some of the blame for what happened. His team understood that he could be in trouble, but they handled the situation badly. In April the campaign ran a strange spot against Brat, accusing him of wanting to raise taxes. Their argument: Brat served on then-Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine's council of economic advisers, at a time when Kaine tried to raise taxes. Not the most compelling stuff. The ad at best did nothing to help Cantor and at worst may have just reinforced the notion that he was out of touch, while raising Brat's profile at the same time.
Cantor's loss stands in contrast with Boehner's easy primary win barely a month before. While Boehner has drawn his share of conservative outrage as speaker, he has been careful to maintain his local roots. Writing at FiveThirtyEight, the Cook Political Report's David Wasserman explains:
Cantor might have been better off following Boehner’s example and adopting a more suitable “home style,” as Sean Trende has alluded. A seemingly silly blog item on Boehner’s campaign website pictured Boehner at a local diner and said, “When John Boehner finds a diner he likes, he sticks with it. That’s why John made sure to stop by Eaton Place this morning before meetings with constituents and small businesses.” This kind of kitsch seems innocuous, but it’s satisfying comfort food for voters.
For all his faults, Ohio voters felt that Boehner was still their congressman, and not someone who only viewed them as a stepping stone to bigger things. In the end, that was Cantor's problem in a nutshell.