According to Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel's top cop, Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy who is comparing murder rates to 1965, the per capita murder rate in Chicago is now 48% higher than it was in 1965. How did we get here you ask?
Chicago closed 2014 with what police said were “historic lows” in crime and murder numbers. The year saw a drop of 3 percent in murders, marking the lowest murder rate since 1965, when there were 397, according to Chicago Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy.
Source: http://www.nbcchicago.com/...
Well it wasn't me mixing apples and oranges. McCarthy used two week old statistics and an incomplete data set for 2014. Then he added to the mix, 40 year-old statistics. All to get media outlets to report, on January 1st, that the Chicago murder rate for year ending 2014 was down. Rahm the master of media manipulation achieved his messaging goal for the first day of New Year.
For the record that lower murder rate quote had another caveat behind it. There were two more weeks of crime to be reported before the year ended but it seems like many reporters swallowed this one hook, line and sinker!
McCarthy didn't release specific numbers, but the Chicago Police Department's website shows there were 392 murders in 2014 as of Dec. 21. The website indicates there were 408 in 2013 by Dec. 21 of that year.
As soon as the 12/29/14 Police press conference hit the airwaves, I got to the data and found out that according to the
city’s own data portal, there were 400 murders through 12/21. So anyway you cut it Rahm's puppet McCarthy was lying when his mouth opened that there were only 392 murders in 2014 as of Dec. 21.
Let's straighten this mess out.
Graph shows the trend line for Chicago murders from 2013 and 2014 seems no question that the murder trend is up both years. Unless my math was wrong and I forgot to read graphs.
For the record as of today (1/1/15) there were
456 murders in 2014 for Chicago so far; one more than last year and 87 more than in 1965 which had a total of 396 murders. That is a 48% increase in the per capita murder rate since 1965. And to be precise 2014 had (so far) one more murder than last year. I say so far because there may be people who die this year, but were the victim in 2014; therefore the homicide gets recorded in 2014 vs 2015. These are some of the tricks used by law enforcement to lower the murder rates.
One way to check for manipulation of data is looking at other variables. One fact is that the amount of shootings increased in 2014 over 2013 by 14%, it then begs the question if there where more shootings how could murders go down so dramatically? The answer is they didn't.
the number of shooting victims increased 14 percent, to 2,599 from 2,272 in 2013, the statistics show.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/...
I have been watching the murder rate this year, everyday since September, for the simple reason that McCarthy was promoting his statistics of a lowered murder rate all year, yet the numbers showed otherwise. Every month since Sepetember 2014 the murder rate was up.
Checking if this was an anomaly. I compared homicides statistics for the months of September and October to last year during the same months. September 2013 had 43 total murders compared to September 2014 which had 44 total murders a 2.33% increase. In October of 2013 there were a total of 33 murders compared to October 2014 which a total of 38 murders a 15.15% increase. The totals for both months show an upward trending murder rate of 7.89%.
http://www.dailykos.com/...
Then in some follow-up to the above post. The murder rate for November 2014 (38) was up 40.74% from the same time last November 2013 (27). These statistics do not include open death investigations that may push the homicide rate even higher. Statistics were used from the
Chicago Tribune Homicides website.
Note. The Tribune never updated the murders on their site since December 15, 2014 when there was an uptick in killings in the city. Now when you go to the homicide area the site is down and still does not show any updated data.
Thanks to http://heyjackass.com/ for posting real time stats. Here is how they explain the stats.
*Source Data & Editor’s Note
We compile our own dataset using the following sources: Chicago Tribune, Chicago Sun-Times, DNAInfo Chicago, Chicago Redeye Homicide Tracker, NBC5 Chicago, City of Chicago Data Portal and CPD CLEARMAP.
Editor’s note: A homicide, regardless of type, within the city limits of Chicago counts towards our total metric. CPD-involved, ISP-involved and justifiable homicides all count. Reckless homicides may count if the Medical Examiner rules that the cause of death was a homicide. Suicides do not count. Additional definitions can be found on the Glossary page.
http://heyjackass.com/
In getting the right per capita murder rate Chicago police reports going back to 1965 were analyzed, crime data was pulled from several websites and data portals and then put into a simple excel file calculated. Surprisingly there is a growing number of news outlets noticing the manipulation of data by Rahm Emanuel.
Chicago's population in 1965 was around 3.5 million compared with 2.7 million now. That means while the number of murders is about the same, the per capita murder rate is higher today.
http://www.timesunion.com/...
Chicago's population in 1965 was around 3.5 million compared with 2.7 million now, the Associated Press reports. So while the number of murders is roughly the same, the per capita murder rate is higher today.
http://www.nbcchicago.com/...
The lies about murders in Chicago
http://www.chicagotribune.com/...
It should be noted that Rahm Emanuel is up for re-election as Mayor of Chicago this February 2015 and he wants to shake his nickname "
the Murder Mayor." This explains the fact that even when there are mob fights, wildings,
smash and grabs, and even Rahm's own son getting mugged in front of his own house,
crime is always down. The problem with this fiction is that the facts say otherwise.
The following graph also shows an increase in the per capita murder rate. The data is from a study the Rahm administration pushed to show that crime was down in Chicago. Instead the data and report shows that the crime in Chicago is trending higher if compared to 1965 as Superintendent McCarthy claims. NOTE. the trend line was added to show the increase in the murder rate.
48 Years of Crime in Chicago:
A Descriptive Analysis of Serious Crime Trends from 1965 to 2013
http://isps.yale.edu/...
2014 Holiday Chicago Crime, shhh crime is really down!
Navy Pier Attacked by Mobs during Christmas 2014
Pregnant female hospitalized, 5 arrested after 'large' fight at Navy Pier (12/26/14)
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/...
Boy Injured In Fight Outside Navy Pier 2nd fight in two days (12/29/14)
The boy, whose exact age was not immediately known, got into the altercation with three to four other males about 10:15 p.m. outside Navy Pier in the 600 block of East Grand Avenue, said police News Affairs Officer Janel Sedevic.
12/29/2014
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/...
Navy Pier Boosts Security After Friday Night Brawl (12/30/15)
Police and witnesses have said anywhere from 30 to 100 brawling youths stormed through the pier’s Winter WonderFest, which is billed as a family-friendly event.
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/...
RAHM's son mugged steps from his house!
Emanuel’s 17-year-old son went out to make a phone call when he was jumped by two men who stole the teen’s cell phone. A police report obtained by the Chicago Tribune says that he was put in a chokehold by one of the suspects and punched in the face by the other. Emanuel reportedly suffered a fat lip and chipped tooth.
Mayor Emanuel's Son Robbed Outside Family's Lakeview (12/20/14)
Emanuel's spokesperson Kelley Quinn released a statement saying, “Yesterday evening Mayor Emanuel's son Zach was assaulted in a ...
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/...
Mayor Rahm Emanuel's Son Robbed, Beaten Near Home (12/20/14)
Yesterday evening Mayor Emanuel's son Zach was assaulted in a robbery during which his phone was stolen. He sustained injuries that ...
http://www.dnainfo.com/...
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel's son mugged outside family home (12/20/14)
The teenage son of Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel was attacked and robbed outside his family's home on the city's North Side late Friday...
http://www.foxnews.com/...
(figures were both rounded up and adjusted due to the discrepancies in reporting by various news agencies and time of publishing)
Thanks to http://heyjackass.com/ for posting real time stats.
PAST STORIES and BOOKS On DATA MANIPULATION
Chicago Murders Up 50%: Rahm Manipulating Murder Rate News
http://www.dailykos.com/...
Is Rahm 'Juking the Stats' on CTA crime?
http://www.substancenews.net/...
The mayor's numbers game...
http://www.substancenews.net/...
Rahm continues to manipulate crime (and especially murder) data
http://www.substancenews.net/...
Chicago 'Juking' the Stats
http://www.dailykos.com/...
The Crime Numbers Game: Management by Manipulation
http://www.crcpress.com/...
The Truth About Chicago’s Crime Rates
http://www.chicagomag.com/...
Chicago Police underreported number of 2012 aggravated assault and battery, audit finds
http://www.suntimes.com/...
Rahm Running Scared Orders Entire City on Alert. 25 August 2013. Daily Kos
http://www.dailykos.com/...
More Bloody Days in Chicago. 30 Jan 2013. Daily Kos
http://www.dailykos.com/...
Chicago Blood Bath - Killing, Shooting and Violence Orgy. 18 March 2012. Daily Kos
http://www.dailykos.com/...
Schmidt, George. "Bloody Days Increase in Chicago's General High Schools" Substance News. December 2006
http://www.substancenews.net/...
Rossi, R., Konkol, M. J., & Golab, A. "Schools close, violence spikes" Chicago Sun-Times, 12 March 2006, pp. 20A-21A.
http://www.informationliberation.com/...
References
"5 Killed, 16 Hurt in Weekend Shootings." Chicago Sun-Times. 17 Nov. 2014. http://chicagosuntimes.com/...
"13 Dead, at Least 58 Wounded over Holiday Weekend." Homicide Watch Chicago. 7 July 2014. http://homicides.suntimes.com/...
"CPD Says 2014 Murder Rate Is Down." NBC Chicago. 1 Sept. 2014. http://www.nbcchicago.com/...
"Chicago Police: Crime down 16 Percent, Homicides down 18 Percent."Chicago Tribune. 01 Jan. 2014. http://articles.chicagotribune.com/...
"Chicago Police: Murders Down, but Shootings up." FOX 32 News Chicago. 15 Sept. 2014. http://www.myfoxchicago.com/...
"Cold Temps Could Be Record-Making." NBC Chicago. 17 Nov. 2014. http://www.nbcchicago.com/...
"Crime in Chicago -- Chicago Tribune." Crime in Chicagoland. 17 Nov. 2014. http://crime.chicagotribune.com/...
"Despite Bloody Weekend, Chicago's Murder Rate Is Down, Police Chief Says." CNN. Cable News Network, 25 Apr. 2014. http://www.cnn.com/...
"Feds Sending More Support To Combat Chicago Gun Violence." The Huffington Post. 17 July 2014. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...
"Homicides in Chicago Have Declined Significantly This Year, but the pace of Improvement Has Slowed." Chicago Tribune. 04 Oct. 2013. http://articles.chicagotribune.com/...
"Illustrating Chicago's Murders, Homicides, Violence and Mayhem at Heyjackass.com." HeyJackass. 17 Nov. 2014. http://heyjackass.com
"Police: Murders down 8% in August, 7.5% in 2014." Homicide Watch Chicago.
http://homicides.suntimes.com/...
"State Police Join CPD Unit in Month-Long Trial." NBC Chicago. 14 Aug. 2014. http://www.nbcchicago.com/...
"Tracking Homicides in Chicago." 17 Nov. 2014. http://homicides.redeyechicago.com