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9:20 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Special Elections: From the desk of Johnny Longtorso:
Iowa HD-04: Unsurprisingly, Republican John Kooiker easily won this seat with 61 percent of the vote. Surprisingly, the second-place finisher was not Democrat John Buntsma, but a write-in candidate, Dennis Wright, who scored 25 percent. Buntsma ended up in third with 14 percent.
Texas SD-26: All three of the Texas specials are going to runoffs. This one will be a D-on-D fight; Trey Martinez Fisher and Jose Menendez will proceed to the second round, having pulled in 43 percent and 25 percent, respectively. Republican Alma Perez Jackson came in third with 20 percent, while the other two candidates posted single-digit finishes.
Texas HD-17: This seat will end up with a Republican, as the two Republicans in the race, John Cyrier and Brent Golemon, got the runoff spots with 46 percent and 24 percent, respectively. Independent Linda Curtis was third with 14 percent, Democrat Ty McDonald got 12 percent, and Democrat Shelley Cartier was last with 4 percent.
Texas HD-123: The only Texas seat in any doubt is this one; Democrat Diego Bernal will face Republican Nunzio Previtera in the runoff. Bernal won 47 percent while Previtera got 21 percent. Democrat Melissa Aguillon was a close third with 18 percent, while Democrat Walter Martinez finished fourth with 11 percent, and the other two candidates ended up with 1 percent each.
Virginia HD-34: Democrats got a nice consolation prize last night following Barbara Comstock's win in VA-10. Democrat Kathleen Murphy picked up Comstock's former House of Delegates seat from the Republicans, defeating Craig Parisot by a 51 to 49 margin.
9:27 AM PT (Jeff Singer): NC-Sen: Republican Sen. Richard Burr hasn't raised too much money for his re-election campaign yet, but he's still all-in for another term. On Tuesday, Burr confirmed that he's running again and will make an official announcement within a few weeks. Democrats are trying to recruit former Sen. Kay Hagan to oppose her former colleague.
9:49 AM PT (Jeff Singer): IN-Gov: Republican Gov. Mike Pence is debating whether to run for re-election in 2016 or seek the presidency, and he says he'll decide after the late April legislative session ends. However, it looks like he won't be able to run for both posts at once after all.
A few days ago Republican Sen. Mike Delph proposed a bill that would let incumbents seek state and federal office at the same time, but legislative leaders sound very unenthusiastic about it. Senate President Pro Tem David Long plans to send the bill to the Senate Rules Committee, which the IndyStar calls "shorthand for killing legislation in the Statehouse." House Speaker Brian Bosma is also very lukewarm about the idea, saying that it doesn't sound like good policy.
In theory Pence could still pursue a presidential campaign while keeping his options open for re-election. The candidate filing deadline is Feb. 7 of 2016 and as SouthernINDem reminds us, statewide candidates only need to turn in 500 valid signatures from each of the nine congressional districts to make it onto the ballot. Right now the Iowa caucus is set for just before then, so Pence could make a quick turnaround if things don't go well; the governor could also pursue re-election if he decides in mid-2015 that his White House bid isn't going anywhere.
However, Indiana is chock-full of Republicans who would very much like to succeed Pence, and they won't enjoy being kept in limbo. Pence may not want to risk angering his own party by introducing so much uncertainty. Democrats may also use Pence's absence against him. Right now the incumbent is incredibly popular, but he could definitely suffer if Hoosiers see him as an absentee governor. A few notable Democrats are thinking about running against him, and they could score a few hits against Pence at home when he's not in a good position to respond. Ultimately, Pence's best option may be to decide if he's running for a second term or running for president rather than try and use the gubernatorial campaign as a fallback.
9:59 AM PT (Jeff Singer): NY-Gov, 19: On Tuesday, Republican Rep. Chris Gibson announced he would retire from the House in 2016, two years before his self-imposed four-term limit was to take effect. Gibson doesn't sound done with politics at all though, and he very quickly expressing his interest in a 2018 statewide campaign, and it looks like he has the governorship in his sights.
Gibson claims he wanted to leave Congress early so his constituents wouldn't be left with an absentee congressman during the 2018 campaign. It's also very likely that Gibson wants to make sure that he doesn't have the stink of the unpopular House around him when he goes statewide. Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo will be eligible to run for a third term in 2018 and he wont be easy to beat in this blue state. Still, Cuomo's 14-point win last year wasn't particularly impressive, and Gibson seems to think the governor will be vulnerable four years from now.
10:09 AM PT (Jeff Singer): VT-Gov: Back in November, Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin narrowly outpolled Republican Scott Milne in but did not secure a majority. Under state law the legislature will meet on Thursday to choose the new governor, and most observers expected the heavily Democratic House and Senate to pick Shumlin. However, Milne is insisting they should select him, and Shumlin sounds a bit worried that they actually could.
At a news conference on Monday, Shumlin predicted that the state government would be "paralyzed" if Milne had to quickly take office. It would be weird for him to be making this argument unless he thought there was a real chance the legislature could actually go with Milne. We'll see what happens on Thursday, but it sounds like what was supposed to be pro-forma vote will be anything but.
12:00 PM PT (Jeff Singer): VT-Gov: It's also worth noting that the legislature will elect the governor by a secret ballot. Shumlin alienated plenty of members of his party by pursuing and later abandoning a state single-payer healthcare system. If any Democrats want to get revenge on Shumlin either from the left or the right, they can do it on Thursday without exposing themselves.
12:23 PM PT (Jeff Singer): WATN: Only days after finishing up his career as chair of the House Intelligence Committee, former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers is going the Joe Scarborough route and joining the world of cable news. Rogers will now work for the libural media, serving as a national security commenter for the CNN. Less than two years ago Rogers was seriously talked about as the FBI's next director, but this gig probably pays better anyway.