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8:51 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: On Thursday, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer officially announced her retirement after four terms. Boxer's departure was long expected, but it will nevertheless set off an unpredictable race to succeed her.
Under California election law, all the candidates will run on the same ballot in the June primary. The top-two vote-getters, regardless of party, will advance to the general election. In this very blue state most of the action is expected to be on the Democratic side, and it's possible we could have a Democratic vs. Democratic general election. It's also possible, if not likely, that top-two candidates could both be Republicans if too many Democrats split the vote.
The Golden State is incredibly blue, and most of the action is on the Democratic side. Plenty of potential names have been bandied about, though no one has made a move yet out of respect for Boxer. The most frequently mentioned name is Attorney General Kamala Harris, who is widely viewed as a rising star in the state party. Harris may be strong enough to deter most of her would-be opponents from running, though it's hard to say at this point. Beyond Harris, other potential candidates include:
• Rep. Xavier Becerra
• Treasurer John Chiang
• Rep. John Garamendi
• Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti
• Former Rep. Jane Harman
• Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones
• Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom
• Secretary of State Alex Padilla
• Rep. Raul Ruíz
• Rep. Loretta Sanchez
• Facebook Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg
• Rep. Jackie Speier
• Billionaire Tom Steyer
• Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa
• Former Controller Steve Westly
We should have more clarity in the coming days and weeks, as some of these people take their names out of contentions and others make their interests clear. There are also likely some prospective candidates who haven't been talked about who could run. Note that Gov. Jerry Brown will be termed out in 2018 and California's other senator Dianne Feinstein may also retire that year, so some potential candidates may decide that they can wait two years before seeking a promotion.
There's no obvious GOP contenders. Republican operatives are hoping to attract someone who can self-fund a campaign, though there aren't any names circulating yet.
This is going to be a very dramatic race, and we'll be watching it unfold at Daily Kos Elections.
9:14 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Deaths: On Wednesday, former West Virginia Republican Gov. Arch Moore passed away at the age of 91. Moore, the father of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, was elected governor three times, and ever dealt former Democratic Gov. and Sen. Jay Rockefeller his only defeat in the 1972 race (Rockefeller beat him in their 1980 rematch). However, Moore's ethics were always questionable. He was found not guilty in 1976 for extortion, but later spent time in prison for corruption.
9:38 AM PT (Jeff Singer): VT-Gov: Our long Green Mountain State nightmare is over. On Thursday, the Vermont legislature officially re-elected Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin to a third two-year term. Because Shumlin failed to secure a majority in November against Republican Scott Milne, the legislature was tasked with choosing the new governor.
Vermont Democrats dominate both chambers and it seemed unlikely that they would pick Milne, who came close but still failed to secure a plurality. However, Mine and his allies tried to persuade legislators to go for him, arguing that a majority of the state voted against Shumlin. In the final days the governor did seem a bit worried that his own party could through him out, but it was not to be.
Ultimately, the final vote was 110-69 in favor of Shumlin. Democrats and their allies hold a total of 116 of the 180 seats in both chambers so there were definitely a few defections, but not nearly enough to help Milne. If Shumlin does run for another term in 2016 he should probably expect a serious challenge after his weak 2014 performance, but for now he's secured another two years in Montpelier.
P.S.: One thing we'd wondered about was whether the legislature could pick whoever they wanted for governor, or if their options were limited, and it turns out it's the latter. Legislators were handed a secret ballot with three names: Shumlin, Milne, and third-place finisher and Libertarian nominee Dan Feliciano. Even if Democratic members were tired of Shumlin, they had no other options besides defecting or abstaining.
9:47 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: Loretta Sanchez didn't rule out a run on Thursday, though she doesn't know when she'll decide.
9:55 AM PT (Jeff Singer): History: On Tuesday John Boehner had a fairly bumpy re-election for speaker, though his victory was never in doubt. But as John Bicknell at Roll Call tells us, this week's vote was absolutely nothing compared to the 1855 one that produced the first Republican speaker.
Back then the GOP held a plurality in the chamber but needed to rely on other anti-Democratic parties like the Know Nothings for support. The various factions could not agree on one consensus candidate, and the entire process took two months and 133 ballots to resolve itself. In the end Nathaniel Banks was selected. Banks's tenure didn't last long, but he later served as governor of Massachusetts before playing a prominent role in the Civil War in Louisiana as a Union general. Banks returned to the House after the war, though he never served as speaker again.
10:15 AM PT (Jeff Singer): KS-Sen, 01: That sound you're hearing is the sad sound of cat fud being returned to its container. Back in November tea partying Republican Rep. Tim Huelskamp didn't rule out challenging Sen. Jerry Moran in the primary, which would have been nothing if not entertaining. However, on Wednesday, Huelskamp told Roll Call that he's not going for it. Moran now looks likely to escape a serious primary challenge, though after watching Sen. Pat Roberts' near death experience last year you can never really be sure what hijinks will ensue.
Huelskamp's own re-election isn't going to be a slam dunk though. He only defeated an unheralded primary challenger by a 55-45 margin in 2014, and he's managed to piss off quite a number of local interests back at home. Several credible Republicans are already looking to take on the incumbent in his safely red western Kansas seat, so we may see some Huelskamp-shaped fireworks after all.
10:27 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: And it looks like you can put those "Darrell Issa for Senate," t-shirts back into storage. Sources close to the Republican representative, who ran in the 1998 primary, told The Hill that he won't be jumping in.
10:37 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: Two other prospective Democrats aren't closing the door on a run either. Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa always looked more likely to run for governor, something he seemed to confirm weeks ago. However, sources close to Villaraigosa are telling Bloomberg's Jonathan Allen that he is "seriously considering" a run. Billionaire Tom Steyer also quickly put out a statement praising Boxer without mentioning his own plans... which does indicate he's thinking about it.
10:49 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: Some other potential Democratic names from the Sacramento Bee:
• State Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de Leon
• Former state Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg
• Former Rep. Ellen Tauscher
On the GOP side, the
Bee mentions:
• San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer
• 2010 nominee Carly Fiorina
• 2014 gubernatorial nominee Neel Kashkari
• Former Rep. Doug Ose
• Former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
• Rep. Ed Royce
• Fresno Mayor and 2014 comptroller nominee Ashley Swearengin
The GOP's dream candidate is probably Kevin Faulconer, who is one of the state party's few rising stars. However, Faulconer is up for re-election in 2016 so he may prefer to wait for 2018 to roll around. Condoleezza Rice would be an interesting choice, though she hasn't shown too much interest in the past.
The other names are a bit less appealing for Team Red. Carly Fiorina fell 10 points short in the 2010 red wave, and it's hard to see her sealing the deal this time; she also seems to have her sights on a long-shot presidential bid anyway. Doug Ose narrowly lost his 2014 comeback bid in a swing seat, and he'd have am ever tougher time winning statewide. Ashley Swearengin lost her statewide race by 8 points while Neel Kashkari didn't impress anyone last year. Royce is also probably far too conservative for California, and he'd be giving up a safe seat. If there's a surprise and two Republicans make it to November things would look a lot different, but that's a big if.
11:01 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: We can cross Eric Garcetti off the list though; he quickly confirmed he wouldn't run.
11:34 AM PT (Jeff Singer): NY-13: Longtime Rep. Charlie Rangel has made it clear for a while that he's retiring from this safely Democratic seat, and the contest to succeed him is starting to take shape. Former Assemblyman Adam Clayton Powell IV confirmed on Wednesday that he's likely to run, saying he's "very interested." Powell is the son of Adam Clayton Powell Jr., whom Rangel beat back in 1970. The younger Powell tried to return the favor in 1994 and 2010, losing the latter race 51-23. Since then Powell has been biding his time waiting for Rangel to retire, and now he has his shot at an open seat.
Powell won't have the primary field to himself though. Assemblyman Keith Wright, another Rangel ally and the head of the Manhattan Democratic Party, recently formed an exploratory committee and looks likely to jump in as well. Former DNC Political Director Clyde Williams is also interested in another bid. Williams ran in 2012 and placed a distant third with only 10 percent of the vote. However, Williams was a very effective fundraiser and he may have a better shot in an open seat.
State Sen. Adriano Espaillat also has not ruled out a run. Espaillat came close to unseating Rangel in 2012 and 2014, but survived a messy primary of his own later last year. The other three prospective candidates are African Americans while Espaillat is Dominican, which could help him if he can consolidate enough of the Hispanic vote. Espaillat wasn't able to do this in either of his last two campaigns, but he may have better luck now that Rangel won't be in the race.
11:37 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: Facebook's Sheryl Sandberg also has pressed the unlike button on a bid, with sources close to her telling the Los Angeles Times's Seema Mehta that she won't run.
11:42 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: No run for Democratic state Senate Pro Tem Kevin De Leon either.
12:00 PM PT (Jeff Singer): NY-11: Staten Island District Attorney Daniel Donovan has been consolidating local Republican support for the upcoming special election like there's no tomorrow, but not everyone in the red team is happy about it. Politico reports that national Republicans, including NRCC head Greg Walden, would rather not have Donovan as their standard bearer, but not because they're afraid he'll cost them the seat.
Donovan set off plenty of national controversy after he did not secure an indictment for the police officer who killed Eric Garner. National Republicans are looking to improve their standing among minority groups ahead of the 2016 presidential race, and Donovan could very well give be an unwanted distraction- something our own by Steve Singiser talked about in a recent essay.
However, they may be stuck with Donovan whether they like it or not. County party committees choose the nominees in New York special elections, and Donovan looks like he has things sown up. Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis, who like Donovan has not officially entered the race, is meeting with national Republicans, but it's hard to see her taking the GOP nod away from the frontrunner. Donovan will likely start out as the clear favorite to hold this seat, but if he turns out to be as big of a national lightning rod as many expect him to be, this may turn out to be a Pyrrhic victory.
12:09 PM PT (Jeff Singer): NY-11: Malliotakis did get some long-awaited good news recently from the Brooklyn GOP. The group looks ready to endorse her, though nothing's official yet. The problem for Malliotakis is that county endorsements are weighted, and Staten Island is a much larger and redder presence in the 11th District than Brooklyn (there are no other counties in the district). As long as the Staten Island Republican Party stays firmly in Donovan's corner, there's not much Malliotakis can do to salvage an endorsement.
12:19 PM PT (Jeff Singer): PA-08: On Thursday, Democratic state Rep. Steve Santarsiero became the first credible contender to announce his candidacy for this swing seat. Santarsiero's own state House district (HD-31) only backed Obama 51-48, so he does have experience winning in competitive territory. Republican Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick is retiring from this Bucks County seat, which Romney very narrowly carried, and both parties are expected to fight hard for it.
12:34 PM PT (Jeff Singer): PA-Sen, AG: Yeah, Democrats are pretty relieved that Attorney General Kathleen Kane isn't running for Senate. Kane has been in hot water for a while, after reports emerged that she leaked sensitive information about an investigation to embarrass and undermine a former deputy AG.
On Thursday, a grand jury and special prosecutor recommended that Montgomery County District Attorney Risa Vetri Ferman indict Kane. As the Philadelphia Inquirer tells us, Kane would be the second sitting state AG to be arrested: Back in 1995 Republican Earnest Preate Jr. resigned in disgrace after pleading guilty to accepting illegal contributions. This seat is up for re-election in 2016 and while Kane has declared her candidacy, it's almost impossible to see her returning to office after this. It's a stunning fall from grace for someone who not too long ago was seen as a future governor or senator.
12:39 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: Former Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger also won't be back.
12:48 PM PT (Jeff Singer): PA-08: Also on the Democratic side, Shaughnessy Naughton is considering another run for this seat. Naughton took on party favorite Kevin Strouse in 2014 and came very close to an upset despite being badly outspent.
Roll Call's Shira Center also has a few prospective GOP names from local operatives. There's a real effort to get Fitzpatrick to change his mind and run again. Fitzpatrick has easily held this seat since his 2010 return to Congress, and he'd probably be favored to keep it if he did abandon his term-limits pledge. However, the Republican persuasion campaign doesn't seem to be working so far.
Failing that, outgoing Lt. Gov. Jim Cawley seems to be the party's go-to guy. Cawley seems to be thinking it over but is also considering a run for state treasurer or even giving up politics all together. Two other potential Republicans are Bucks County Commission Chair Robert Loughery and state Rep. Scott Petri.
2:08 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: A source close to Steyer confirms that he seems to be interested. Feinstein also says that there's a "high likelihood" Villaraigosa runs.
On the GOP side, Condi Rice's camp quickly made it clear that she won't run. Kevin Faulconer also doesn't sound interested, tweeting "My focus is on leading San Diego and continuing to write our city’s comeback story." That's not an iron clad no, but it doesn't seem like he's going for it.
2:15 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: Either Newsom or Harris may run, but probably both of them won't. The Washington Post has a few good reasons why. Essentially, the two are quite close both personally and politically, and either can just wait until in 2018.
The
Washington Post also gives us some
new potential names. On the Dem side, we have San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo and Rep. Karen Bass. On the GOP side they cite physicist Charles Munger Jr., former Insurance Commissioner and 2010 gubernatorial candidate Steve Poizner, and HP head and 2010 gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman. All three Republicans are very wealthy- Whitman especially.
2:28 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: Ok...
I asked @KJ_MayorJohnson's office if he was interested in @SenatorBoxer's seat in 2016. Spokesman: "No comment."
— @Ryan_Lillis
Kevin Johnson is the Democratic mayor of Sacramento.
4:00 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: MSNBC gives us two more Democratic names: Controller Betty Yee and former Treasurer Bill Lockyer.
4:15 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: Via The Hill we have another two Dems: Rep. Adam Schiff and Los Angeles County Supervisor and former U.S. Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis.
On the GOP side, former Rep. Mary Bono hinted that she may go for it, though all we have is a very cryptic tweet.
4:27 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: Here is our complete list of who may run and who has taken themselves out of contention.