I have no constructive set-up this week, so here's a song with a beautiful title for Democrats.
Part 1 -- North Dakota, South Dakota
Part 2 -- Alaska, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire
Part 3 -- Hawaii, Idaho, Nebraska
Today's first state is West Virginia, the last state that would gain just one seat in a Cube Root Congress. This was another small Republican state where it was difficult to produce a true Democratic district. Unlike Idaho, though, it is possible to get a pale blue district in West Virginia.
1st District (blue): Charleston and Huntington anchor this district that also includes the central counties and the coal counties along the borders of Kentucky and Virginia. President Obama got a plurality in this district (49.3%), so on its face, this district would be rated around R+3. As we've learned in the past, we get a little leeway with light pink districts in solid red states. Moderate-to-conservative Democrats can win districts like this one. Republican Evan Jenkins sees his hometown of Huntington split between the 1st and 4th Districts. If he lives within the 1st District and runs here, he could be in trouble in 2016. If he lives within the 4th District and runs there, he would be forced into a primary with another Republican incumbent and Team Blue would have a pickup opportunity here. Damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. Tossup with Jenkins, dodgy Lean D without Jenkins.
2d District (green): This district wraps around the 1st. It includes the northern parts of Charleston, most of Clarksburg, and the medium-sized Interstate 77 cities of Beckley and Bluefield in the south. This would become West Virginia's reddest district, at 59.6% McCain. Ironically, longtime Democratic representative Nick Rahall of Beckley won repeatedly in a district more conservative than this one. If he decides that he wants his seat back, he could run here. Expect an ideological dogfight in the Republican primary whether Rahall runs or not. Tossup with Rahall, Safe R without Rahall.
3d District (purple): This district starts in Morgantown and Fairmont, then runs out to the eastern panhandle. It is here that you'll find carpetbagging king Alex Mooney (R-Maryland Charles Town). Since the people in his current district don't seem to care that they're being represented by somebody who has only been "from West Virginia" since last year, the people in this district probably wouldn't care, either. At 54.6% McCain, they can have him. A well-funded conservative Democrat could make the race interesting. Since this district is under 55% McCain, I'll call it Lean R.
4th District (red): Ohio River district. It starts in the eastern part of Huntington and runs up through Parkersburg and Wheeling. Western Clarksburg is also included. 59.3% McCain, so any Republican would win easily. The question here would be which Republican. David McKinley (R-Wheeling) undoubted lives here. Jenkins may or may not live here. If Jenkins lives here and stays here, there will be fireworks in the primary. If Jenkins is in the 1st, then McKinley is in the clear for the rest of his political career. Safe R
6 Electoral Votes: Safe R
New Mexico becomes our first state to gain two seats. It also becomes the only state where all of its cube-root districts are minority-majority.
1st District (blue): Southwestern New Mexico. Las Cruces, Alamogordo, and Truth or Consequences are the notable cities here. This is an open 53.8% Obama seat that represents a 56.4% Hispanic majority. Lean D
2d District (green): Central New Mexico. We have Albuquerque's suburbs, Las Vegas, and Roswell. Another open seat. 56.1% Obama with a 55.7% Hispanic majority. Safe D
3d District (purple): This district starts in Santa Fe, then wraps around the 2d District. We go through Taos, Clovis, and Carlsbad. Two incumbents are forced into this district: Ben Ray Lujan (D-Santa Fe) and Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs). This is a 59.3% Obama district with a Hispanic plurality (49.3%). Other ethnicities put the minority population over half. Pearce will be going into early retirement a second time. Safe D
4th District (red): Northwestern New Mexico. The major cities here are Los Alamos, Gallup, and Farmington. This district has the highest minority population of the five, at over 60%. Native Americans make up 31.9% and Hispanics make up another 27.5%, with other races comprising the rest of the minority population. 54.4% Obama. Another open seat that goes into the Lean D column.
5th District (gold): Albuquerque, and nothing else. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is good to go in this 60% Obama seat with a 53.4% minority population. Safe D
7 Electoral Votes: If it wasn't for Republican governor Susana Martinez getting overwhelmingly re-elected in 2014, I would have said these were 7 safe votes for the Democratic presidential nominee. For now, though, we'll have to call it Lean D.
We finish up this week's report in the state that had most of us at DK going, "WTF happened here in 2014?": Nevada.
Close-up of Las Vegas, which will be home to four of this state's six districts:
1st District (blue): Eastern Las Vegas. I don't know where Rep. Dina Titus (D) lives in Las Vegas, but she would probably run here. 69.9% Obama with a 54.9% Hispanic majority. Safe D
2d District (green): Northern suburbs of Las Vegas down to Henderson. Joe Heck (R-Henderson) is in trouble in this 54.7% Obama district. He won't move to the 3d because that district is bluer than this one. If he moves to the 5th, he'll set up a primary challenge with another Republican incumbent. He has nowhere to go but down. Lean D
3d District (purple): Extreme western Las Vegas, southern Las Vegas, and down to the tri-point with California and Arizona. Sen. Harry Reid's birthplace of Searchlight is here. Any Democrat is good in this open 56.4% Obama seat. Safe D
4th District (red): Western Las Vegas and the city of North Las Vegas. This 61.3% Obama district with a 53.4% minority population would be a good place for Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas) to restart his congressional career after his surprise loss in November. Safe D
5th District (gold): All of the rural stuff between Las Vegas and Reno. Cresent Hardy (R-Mesquite) is the only incumbent Republican who lives in this 56.9% McCain district. Despite only being elected in November, he'll probably have the advantage against any other sitting Republican because he actually lives here. Safe R either way.
6th District (teal): Reno and Carson City. This 55.3% Obama spells bad news for Mark Amodei (R-Carson City). He'll either have to carpetbag to the 5th and challenge Hardy, stay here and lose in a presidential year, or retire outright. Lean D with Amodei, Safe D without Amodei.
8 Electoral Votes: It still has that conservative streak. Tossup realistically, Lean D ideally.
No more to see here. As Tracey Ullman used to say, "GO HOME!"
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: AK, DE, HI, ID, ME, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, RI, SD, VT, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 17 (added NM-2, NM-3, NM-5, NV-1, NV-3, NV-4, NV-6)
Lean D: 11 (added NM-1, NM-4, NV-2, WV-1)
Tossup: 2 (added WV-2)
Lean R: 5 (added WV-3)
Safe R: 10 (added NV-5, WV-4)
Total: 28 D, 2 Toss, 15 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 15 (added NM-2, NM-3, NM-5, NV-1, NV-3, NV-4)
Lean D: 9 (added NM-1, NM-4, NV-2, NV-6)
Tossup: 4 (added WV-1)
Lean R: 5 (added WV-3)
Safe R: 12 (added NV-5, WV-2, WV-4)
Total: 24 D, 4 Toss, 17 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: AK, DE, HI, ID, ME, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, RI, SD, VT, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: DE (4), HI (5), ME (4), RI (4), VT (3) = 20
Lean D: ME (1), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), NV (8) = 22
Tossup: NE (1) = 1
Lean R: MT (4) = 4
Safe R: AK (4), ID (5), ND (4), NE (4), SD (4), WV (6), WY (3) = 30
Total: 42 D, 1 Toss, 34 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: DE (4), HI (5), ME (4), RI (4), VT (3) = 20
Lean D: ME (1), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7) = 14
Tossup: NV (8) = 8
Lean R: MT (4), NE (1) = 5
Safe R: AK (4), ID (5), ND (4), NE (4), SD (4), WV (6), WY (3) = 30
Total: 34 D, 8 Toss, 35 R