Before you instantly tune out at the sight of this title, I should let you know that a Democratic district can be made in all three of these uber-red states. Yes, even Utah. Click below the orange squiggle and I'll show you how.
Part 1 -- North Dakota, South Dakota
Part 2 -- Alaska, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire
Part 3 -- Hawaii, Idaho, Nebraska
Part 4 -- West Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada
Utah is the reddest and the whitest state in the Union, but a six-district Utah is actually not as bad as a four-district Utah.
Close-up of the Salt Lake City area:
1st District (blue): Salt Lake City and West Valley City. You'll be happy to know this district in Utah gave 59.4% of its vote to Barack Obama in 2008. This district in Utah is guaranteed to elect a Democrat every time. Recently retired Jim Matheson (D-Salt Lake City) could return to Congress if his gubernatorial or senatorial campaign doesn't quite work out, but a district this blue can actually afford to be represented by somebody more progressive-to-liberal. Safe D
2d District (green): But as soon as you step two feet outside of SLC, it's back to reality. Narrow-minded Republican turf. However, these southern suburbs of SLC are actually not as conservative as the rest of the state. 54.4% McCain. This district is less red than the one that Matheson represented for 14 years. Matheson could theoretically run here and win, thereby leaving the 1st District open for a real Democrat. That would be the dream scenario, of course. Tossup with Matheson, Lean R without Matheson
3d District (purple): No more good news left in this state. Everything else is unreachable to the Democratic Party, even in a wave year. This C-shaped district starts in the far southern part of Salt Lake County. It moves through the city of Tooele and picks up all of Davis County to the north of SLC. 68.8% McCain. Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington) can stay here until the cows come home. Safe R
4th District (red): Similar to the current 1st District. The northern part of Utah. Ogden, Logan, and Brigham City are the major cities here. Rob Bishop (R-Brigham) is locked into this 65.7% McCain district. Safe R
5th District (gold): This district south of the SLC area takes all of Wasatch County and connects it to the I-15 corridor of Utah County. Provo and Orem are here, along with Brigham Young University. Jason Chaffetz (R-Alpine) can serve forever in Utah's reddest district, at 76.8% McCain. Jesus Christ would lose in a landslide if he ran as a Democrat in this district. Safe R
6th District (teal): The sparsely populated two-thirds of Utah. A lot of famous stuff is located in this district, though: Bonneville Salt Flats, Lake Powell, Bryce Canyon, Zion National Park, and Arches National Park. Allen West in a dress Mia Love's town of Sarasota Springs is just narrowly drawn into this district rather than the 5th District. This district is 73.8% McCain, so Love will be here for many years. Safe R
8 Electoral Votes: Is this even a question? Safe R
Middle America is next. This state initially looked good for us in 2014, but they stupidly re-elected their governor and senator. Kansas can be drawn two ways, depending on how froggy you're feeling.
Scenario A:
1st District (blue): Kansas City to Lawrence. 52.1% Obama. We haven't had a Democratic representative from Kansas since Dennis Moore retired and Nancy Boyda lost re-election. This district should change that. Lean D
2d District (green): Baconmandered district that runs along the southern border of the 1st District. Southern Kansas City, Overland Park, Olathe, and Topeka. This is bad news for at least one Republican incumbent. Lynn Jenkins (R-Topeka) and Kevin Yoder (R-Overland Park) both live in this 50.5% Obama district. Whoever wins the primary will have a fight on their hands in 2016. We could boot two Republicans for the price of one. Tossup
3d District (purple): Again, the good stuff ends once you step out of the urban areas. This northeastern corner has the suburbs of Kansas City and Topeka, as well as Leavenworth and Manhattan. 59.8% McCain open seat. Safe R
4th District (red): Wichita now has its own compact district. Even though Wichita is a major city, it's a conservative city. 54.5% McCain. Mike Pompeo (R-Wichita) is in no danger. Safe R
5th District (gold): This open seat surrounds Wichita and stretches to the Missouri border. A finger reaches up to Junction City. It's no surprise that a 62.3% McCain district would resemble a Republican sticking up his middle finger. Safe R
6th District (teal): The western half of the state is deep red. 71.3% McCain. Tim Huelskamp (R-Fowler) will keep winning general elections... that is, if he survives a primary challenge. He's already pissed off enough Republicans to guarantee that he will have to earn his job from now on rather than just phone it in like any other Republican who represents a deep red district. Safe R
8 Electoral Votes: Safe R
Here's the more realistic Kansas Scenario B:
Only the first three districts change.
1st District (blue): Kansas City and Overland Park are together this time. This district is slightly bluer than in Scenario A (52.9%). Yoder lives in this district and has a good chance of losing in 2016. He is still the incumbent, though, so I'll have to rate it a Tossup.
2d District (green): Olathe, Lawrence, and Topeka are together for this district. Although this district loses that 1% of Democratic voters to the 1st District, President Obama still managed to get a plurality of the votes here (49.6%). Jenkins won't have to deal with Yoder in the primary, but she will have to deal with a tough Democratic challenger. Again, this would be a Tossup.
3d District (purple): Only a few precinct changes make this district slightly redder (60%). Still Safe R.
And now, let's un-dummymander Arkansas.
The days of three Arkansas Democrats in Congress are over, but at least we can salvage one (possibly two) districts.
1st District (blue): Little Rock to Pine Bluff gives us an actual blue seat. 55.1% Obama. Even in a bad year for Democrats, French Hill (R-Little Rock) will see an early retirement. Lean D
2d District (green): The eastern side of Arkansas has a high African-American population, thanks to its proximity to Memphis, TN, which is just across the river. The college city of Jonesboro is also here. There is some potential for a conservative Democrat to win this 52.8% McCain district, but incumbent Rick Crawford (R-Jonesboro) should be considered the favorite until he decides to seek a promotion somewhere. Lean R
3d District (purple): Northern and eastern outskirts of Little Rock. Conway is the largest city here. 66.3% McCain open seat, and the reddest district in this state. Safe R
4th District (red): North central Arkansas out to Bentonville, home of America's most evil company, Walmart. 65.2% McCain. Steve Womack (R-Rogers) has nothing to worry about. Safe R
5th District (gold): Western Arkansas. Fayetteville, Ft. Smith, and down to the Texas border. 62.7% McCain. No incumbent lives here, but any Republican legislator seeking a promotion will get it. Safe R
6th District (teal): Triangle shaped district formed by the cities of Hot Springs, Texarkana, and El Dorado. President Clinton's birthplace of Hope is also here, but there is no hope for any Democratic candidate who runs against Bruce Westerman (R-Hot Springs) in this 62.8% district. Safe R
8 Electoral Votes: No hope here, either. Safe R
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: AK, AR, DE, HI, ID, KS, ME, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, RI, SD, UT, VT, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 18 (added UT-1)
Lean D: 13 (added AR-1, KS-1)
Tossup: 4 (added KS-2, UT-2)
Lean R: 6 (added AR-2)
Safe R: 22 (added AR-3, AR-4, AR-5, AR-6, KS-3, KS-4, KS-5, KS-6, UT-3, UT-4, UT-5, UT-6)
Total: 31 D, 4 Toss, 28 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 16 (added UT-1)
Lean D: 10 (added AR-1)
Tossup: 6 (added KS-1, KS-2)
Lean R: 7 (added AR-2, UT-2)
Safe R: 24 (added AR-3, AR-4, AR-5, AR-6, KS-3, KS-4, KS-5, KS-6, UT-3, UT-4, UT-5, UT-6)
Total: 26 D, 6 Toss, 31 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: AK, AR, DE, HI, ID, KS, ME, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, RI, SD, UT, VT, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: DE (4), HI (5), ME (4), RI (4), VT (3) = 20
Lean D: ME (1), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), NV (8) = 22
Tossup: NE (1) = 1
Lean R: MT (4) = 4
Safe R: AK (4), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), ND (4), NE (4), SD (4), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 54
Total: 42 D, 1 Toss, 58 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: DE (4), HI (5), ME (4), RI (4), VT (3) = 20
Lean D: ME (1), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7) = 14
Tossup: NV (8) = 8
Lean R: MT (4), NE (1) = 5
Safe R: AK (4), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), ND (4), NE (4), SD (4), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 54
Total: 34 D, 8 Toss, 59 R