Yes, actually, that's how it seems to be working.
The Congressional Budget Office reports that a continued slowdown in the increase of healthcare costs has helped reduce the deficit, and that a key component of that slowdown—Obamacare—has actually cost
substantially less than originally estimated in its first full year of implementation.
New calculations by the CBO lower the projected costs of providing health care to millions of Americans by nearly $200 million between the fiscal years 2015 and 2019. Douglas W. Elmendorf, the director of the budget office, attributed the changes to the "slowdown in the growth of health care costs," and lower projections of government-subsidized premiums.
Four years ago, the CBO estimated that Obamacare’s coverage expansion would cost the federal government $710 billion from 2015 to 2019. According to the latest projections, that figure has been revised down to $571 billion, which represents a reduction of 20 percent.
Some of the reforms included in the law have helped hold down the costs insurers have to cover. Enrollments were robust, higher than the CBO initially predicted, which also allowed insurers to keep premium increases low. The success of the first year of enrollments encouraged more insurance companies to join the exchanges, increasing competition and keeping premium increases low. All of which means that the federal government is not spending as much on the subsidy part of the equation than originally estimated. And, according to the CBO, that's likely to last for the next five years.
That is, and the CBO didn't consider this part in their calculations, if the Supreme Court doesn't gut the law by taking subsidies away from the people in the 36 states who get their insurance through the federal exchange. If the court strikes down those subsidies, there goes the whole scheme, and the savings with it.