Tom Brady likes underinflated balls.
This has been another edition of "Out of Context Theatre".
Now back to your regularly scheduled programming below the orange squiggle.
Part 1 -- North Dakota, South Dakota
Part 2 -- Alaska, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire
Part 3 -- Hawaii, Idaho, Nebraska
Part 4 -- West Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada
Part 5 -- Utah, Kansas, West Virginia
Only two states will be shown this week because each will have a pro-Democratic gerrymander scenario. One red state, one purple state. Both states would gain three seats in a Cube Root Congress.
Red state first: Mississippi. Here's my gerrymander:
1st District (blue): Gulf Coast district. Biloxi, Gulfport, and Pascagoula. Steven Palazzo (R-Biloxi) is in this 67.3% McCain district. Safe R
2d District (green): This oddly-shaped district north of the Gulf Coast area avoids all of the Black-majority Democratic voting precincts south of Jackson. Hattiesburg and Brookhaven are the notable cities here. It's an open seat in Mississippi's reddest district--72.1% McCain. Safe R
3d District (purple): This C-shaped district starts in Jackson, then runs along the Louisiana border. Not the most compact Black-majority (64.2%) district in the world, but I think it'll pass. 65.4% Obama. Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton) can serve as long as he wants. Safe D
4th District (red): This funky open district of east-central Mississippi has tentacles going through Tupelo, Columbus, Waynesboro, Laurel, Mendenhall, and Kosciusko. Parts of Meridian are here, as well. There is no way in hell this district would be accepted by the courts, but that's why these are called "fantasy redistricting scenarios". Republicans would be doubly pissed because this district has a 52.9% Black majority. 57.9% Obama. Safe D
5th District (gold): More tentacles! This district is based in Pearl (Jackson's conservative cousin). One tentacle goes to the Mississippi River. One goes up to the Grenada suburbs. One stops short of Oxford (William Faulkner's hometown). One goes to Meridian. Gregg Harper (R-Pearl) won't be happy with the shape of his new district, even though it's deep deep red (71.4% McCain). Safe R
6th District (teal): The northeastern corner of Mississippi. A couple of fingers extend from it. One goes down to the eastern sections of Columbus. One goes to the Memphis suburbs. Alan Nunnelee (R-Tupelo) won't go near the 4th District, so he'll run here instead. 71.9% McCain. Safe R
7th District (dark gray): 57.9% Black majority. Another carved district that would never survive in court. Grenada, Oxford, Tunica, and Greenville are included. 62.6% Obama. Safe D
9 Electoral Votes: Probably unreachable, whether or not the Democratic candidate is southern and/or Black. Safe R
So here comes the more realistic map. It's a lot tidier, but it still gives us an extra blue seat:
1st District (blue): I flipped a couple of counties, but the three Gulf Coast counties remain the anchor. It's still Palazzo territory, at 67.7% McCain. Safe R
2d District (green): Hattiesburg, Laurel, and Waynesboro are together this time. Open 65.9% McCain seat. Safe R
3d District (purple): It's still Jackson to the Louisiana border. The African-American population drops slightly, to 61.5%. But Thompson remains unbeaten in this 62.4% Obama district. Safe D
4th District (red): Pearl and Kosciusko join up with an undivided Meridian. Harper still gets re-elected in a 63.1% McCain district. Safe R
5th District (gold): Vicksburg to Tunica. This is our second VRA district--59% African-American majority--and we did it without splitting a bunch of counties. Safe D for any progressive Black legislator who wants it.
6th District (teal): Columbus, Oxford, and Grenada. 56.2% McCain is the rating for this open seat. Safe R
7th District (dark gray): Backward-L district that goes from Tupelo to the Memphis suburbs. Nunnelee doesn't have to worry about his hometown getting cracked this time. 66% McCain. Safe R
Next, my friends, we've got trouble (trouble). Right here in River City. With a capital "T", that rhymes with "G", and that stands for "Gerrymandering"!
Yes, I know that Iowa has a state law banning U.S. House districts from splitting any counties. For the purpose of our fantasy redistricting, I'm going to pretend that law doesn't exist.
1st District (blue): Basically, all of the red areas of western and north central Iowa. Nobody represents this 57.2% McCain district. Safe R
2d District (green): This serpentine district includes Sioux City, Council Bluffs, Ames, and some of the Des Moines suburbs. Two incumbents are in this district: David Young (R-Van Meter) and notorious nutter Steve King (R-Kiron). Both Young and King live close to the 1st District, so one (or even both) of them could move there rather than take a chance here. Another person who could run in this district is 2014 contender Staci Appel (D-Ackworth). This is a 51.9% Obama district, so any number of things could happen. I'm not taking anything for granted. I have to say this is a pure Tossup.
3d District (purple): Des Moines, with a tendril into Marion County. Open seat, 55.4% Obama. Safe D
4th District (red): Southern Iowa up to Iowa City. 2006 Democratic Revolution champion David Loebsack (D-Iowa City) is still in Congress today, and there is no reason for me to think that he would lose in this 58.8% district any time soon. Safe D
5th District (gold): Central Iowa. Waterloo, Ft. Dodge, Marshalltown. This is an open 53.8% Obama district. Bruce Braley (D-Waterloo) could get his seat back, but I would prefer somebody who isn't scared to expose his Republican challenger's evil beliefs. Safe D with Braley, Lean D without Braley.
6th District (teal): Cedar Rapids plus some of the outskirts of Waterloo and the Quad Cities. Another open blue seat (56.6% Obama). Safe D
7th District (dark gray): This district starts in the Quad Cities and runs along the Mississippi River through Dubuque. It proceeds west to Mason City. Rod Blum (R-Dubuque) won his current seat in last year's red wave, but he has absolutely no chance in this 59.6% Obama district. 2014 also-ran Pat Murphy (D-Dubuque) could give it another go. Safe D
9 Electoral Votes: Lean D in recent years, but I should still stick it in the Tossup column in the worst-case scenarios.
Here's the more likely Iowa map:
1st District (blue): The northwestern corner now includes Sioux City. 54.9% McCain. We'll have a few more years of Steve King to kick around here. Safe R
2d District (green): Council Bluffs and West Des Moines out to Centerville. It's a pink district (52.2% McCain) with David Young as its incumbent representative. A conservative Democrat might give him a noteworthy challenge. Lean R
3d District (purple): Des Moines. I drew Ackworth into this district so that Staci Appel could run here. This is an open 56.5% Obama seat, so she would win easily. Safe D
4th District (red): We still have Ottumwa, Burlington, and Iowa City here... although this district now includes the counties immediately east of Des Moines. Loebsack is still entrenched in this 59.5% Obama district. Safe D
5th District (gold): The Quad Cities and Dubuque are still together, but they now include some Cedar Rapids suburbs. Blum is still screwed in a 57.4% Obama district. Pat Murphy, the spotlight is on you once again. Safe D
6th District (teal): Probably one of the squarest districts you'll see outside of Wyoming. It goes from Cedar Rapids to Ames. Open seat, 56.8% Obama. Safe D
7th District (dark gray): North central Iowa. Waterloo, Ft. Dodge, and Mason City. Any Democrat can go for this 57% Obama seat, whereas Braley can just... go. Seriously, there was no excuse for him to lose a gimme U.S. Senate seat--Republican wave or not. Safe D with or without Braley.
That's two more states down. Tune in next week for three more states that would gain three seats. A small teaser: I'll make my daring estimates on Oregon's cube root districts.
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: AK, AR, DE, HI, IA, ID, KS, ME, MS, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, RI, SD, UT, VT, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 26 (added IA-3, IA-4, IA-5, IA-6, IA-7, MS-3, MS-4, MS-7)
Lean D: 13
Tossup: 5 (added IA-2)
Lean R: 6
Safe R: 27 (added IA-1, MS-1, MS-2, MS-5, MS-6)
Total: 39 D, 5 Toss, 33 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 23 (added IA-3, IA-4, IA-5, IA-6, IA-7, MS-3, MS-5)
Lean D: 10
Tossup: 6
Lean R: 8 (added IA-2)
Safe R: 30 (added IA-1, MS-1, MS-2, MS-4, MS-6, MS-7)
Total: 33 D, 6 Toss, 38 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: AK, AR, DE, HI, IA, ID, KS, ME, MS, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, RI, SD, UT, VT, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: DE (4), HI (5), ME (4), RI (4), VT (3) = 20
Lean D: IA (9), ME (1), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), NV (8) = 31
Tossup: NE (1) = 1
Lean R: MT (4) = 4
Safe R: AK (4), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), SD (4), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 63
Total: 51 D, 1 Toss, 67 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: DE (4), HI (5), ME (4), RI (4), VT (3) = 20
Lean D: ME (1), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7) = 14
Tossup: IA (9), NV (8) = 17
Lean R: MT (4), NE (1) = 5
Safe R: AK (4), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), SD (4), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 63
Total: 34 D, 17 Toss, 68 R