Nothing has been quite so clear in the past couple weeks as just how out of step the GOP establishment is with the GOP base—a disconnect that has stunning implications for 2016.
Only a few weeks ago, for instance, Republican strategists started selling the idea that a Supreme Court ruling legalizing same-sex marriage nationwide would neutralize the issue for Republicans on the campaign trail. They could simply say what Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker did after a federal appeals court ruled in favor of marriage equality and the Supreme Court declined to hear the state's challenge to the decision.
“For us, it’s over in Wisconsin,” he told reporters.
But Rep. Steve King’s Iowa summit last weekend proved that to be nothing but wishful thinking. Even as some GOP hopefuls tried to sidestep the topic, here’s what one conservative Republican who has first-hand experience with Hawkeye State politics had to say about the issue.
“If you dodge the question, then it’s the kiss of death,” said social conservative Sam Clovis, who finished second behind Joni Ernst in last year’s Iowa GOP Senate primary. “Candidates have got to be declarative about where they stand. Period.”
“If you’re not vocally pro-life and pro-traditional marriage, I don’t think you can win here because you’re going to get hammered,” added Clovis.
And it’s not just the voters pushing the divide, it’s the candidates. Head below the fold for more on the GOP dilemma.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has not officially announced yet but make no mistake, he’s already running. People have made a lot of the fact he moderated his approach to same-sex marriage in his most recent book, "God, Guns, Grits, and Gravy."
“The claim that same-sex marriage is destroying society is actually greatly overstated,” he wrote.
But that’s not the Huckabee who’s been showing up on conservative
talk radio.
"If the courts make a decision, I hear governors and even some aspirants to the presidency say well, that's settled, and it’s the law of the land," he said. "No, it isn't the law of the land…
"I may be lonely, I may be the only one, but I’m going to stand absolutely faithful to the issue of marriage not because it’s a politically expedient thing to do, because it isn’t. I’m going to do it because I believe it is the right position, it’s the biblical position, it’s the historical position," he said.
That's not moderate. That’s a guy who's getting ready to do battle on the one issue in which he knows he can repeatedly pound the heck out of his fellow former and sitting governors—Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and Mike Pence, in particular.
It’s exactly the type of attack that Jeb Bush has to worry about as he gears up to free himself of his “moderate” moniker and get back to his staunch conservative roots. Next week, we’ll get a look at that guy during his speech at the Detroit Economic Club. But CNN had a succinct summation of the governor many of us have forgotten.
He cut billions in taxes, intervened in controversial abortion cases, railed against affirmative action and gun control and dreamed of a state capital in which government buildings would forever be drained of unneeded workers.
But here again, the problem for Bush is that his base isn’t concerned with those credentials. They’re fixated on their points of disagreement, which include his support for national educational standards and finding a solution on immigration reform.
Glenn McCall, a South Carolina RNC member, says activists in his state aren't interested in Bush's record.
"The successes he had in Florida -- they're not even thinking about that. They're looking at Common Core, the Bush name and immigration.”
In fact, nothing better represents the conundrum the GOP’s 2016 field will face than the Republican-led Congress, pinging back and forth between its crazies like Rep. King and its slightly saner members.
When they let King lead the charge, they come up with immigration policy prescriptions so radical that they can’t possibly garner enough support necessary to become law (which in this case, means passing the Senate).
But when someone like pro-life GOP Rep. Renee Ellmers points out that the rape exception included in the abortion ban bill is both unfair to women and too extreme for most voters, she draws an immediate primary challenge from the right.
Damned if you do, damned in you don’t. That’s the state of play for the Republican field right now as they try to chart their course to 2016.
This week, Mitt Romney made the calculation that, even if he thought he would make the best president, bridging the gap between the GOP base and the rest of America was a bridge too far. He was right.