1. The rules the Republicans designed to streamline the nomination process in 2016 are, like everything else the Republicans think about, too focused on what happened in the past, on fighting the proverbial 'last war.'
2. The apportionment of votes designed to help the clear front runner will fragment when no clear front runner emerges.
3. Because the primary season will go by so quickly, no candidate will be inclined to drop out because of an initial fourth or fifth place showing. He or she will just wait to become the new flavor of the week. The primary contests will be like musical chairs, without the chairs taken away.
4. Because of Bridgegate, no major establishment candidate has had four years to put an organization in place that can deliver key support in every state.
5. The candidate with the most money will probably be Jeb Bush, but he lacks the killer instinct that enabled Romney to go negative nuclear each time he stumbled.
6. The Tea Party types will be out in force but will be too fractured to rally behind one candidate.
7. Moderate Republicans will be less enthusiastic about turning out and Republican women in particular will secretly be in favor of Hillary and apathetic about the Republican primaries.
8. The economy will be vigorous, also encouraging apathy towards the candidates that want to change the status quo.
9. In the 24-hour news cycle environment, every dark horse will fade or even break a leg at the stretch--i.e., if Scott Walker's rise really does materialize, John Doe will become a media feeding frenzy
10. They are Republicans, and cannot do anything right.