I'm an American expat who has lived in Canada for over 40 years now. I follow both US and Canadian politics intently, as it seems that several other DKos members do.
So be warned: the following thoughts are about Canadian politics.
Why did (Conservative) former Minister of External Affairs John Baird resign?
I don't claim to know the answer, but if you are interested in hearing my completely unsupported speculations, or perhaps sharing your own, follow me beyond the NDP Orange Thingamajig...
OK, let's begin by stating the obvious, I'm not a big fan of John Baird's politics. His economic neo-conservatism is so intense that he once owned a cat named "Thatcher", named after his hero, the late British PM.
He's also been one of Harper's most loyal lieutenants and most reliable mouthpieces in Parliament, and excels in name-calling and mud-slinging.
However, I will say a few things in Mr. Baird's favour.
- he is the Conservative party's leading gay MP, and perhaps their only gay Tory MP (?) and therefore I have little doubt he's received a bumpy ride from some of the anti-gay "social conservatives" in the Conservative caucus
- he is a passionate believer in human rights, and has spoken out several times on behalf of prisoners of conscience that our local chapter of Amnesty International has supported
- he is said to have been a close friend of the late Minister of Finance Jim Flaherty, a fellow Ontarian who came to Ottawa at the same time as Baird and also served in the Mike Harris government. (And amazingly enough, Flaherty and Baird could even be thought of as "more progressive" Tories, a point I shall return to later.)
So putting all these factors together, here's what I imagine happened:
It is known that the Tories have been going over their budget plans very carefully now that falling oil revenues have punched a hole in their plans for tax cuts.
It is also known that the late Jim Flaherty was outspoken in his opposition to the "income-splitting" provision that may or may not be included in that budget.
I think that Baird may have been vocal in the Tory caucus in standing in principled opposition to the "income-splitting" provision.
I think that this may have provided Baird's enemies in the PMO and in the Tory caucus with a great excuse to marginalize him.
Furthermore, it is well-known that our beloved PM is not a big fan of people who don't knuckle under and do what they are told.
I think Baird's loyalty to both Harper and the Conservative party are so intense that rather than go public with his opposition to this issue, he would resign as a matter of honour.
I think that Harper, the PMO, and the rest of the caucus would not want this situation to be talked about by the media and the other parties.
Thus they would have good reason to praise Mr. Baird for his service and make the pretence that he wants to get out of politics.
Well, that's one man's theory, though I am open to argument about it...