How long will John Boehner keep Homeland Security hanging to protect his own hide?
Funding for the Department of Homeland Security needs to be passed by Friday, and despite movement in the Senate, shutdown remains very much on the table. The Senate is
moving forward on a clean bill funding DHS until September, and though it's not clear when that vote will happen, we know that House Republican leadership plans, at the very least, to let things go down to the wire. For some House Republicans, after all, a DHS shutdown is
not such a big deal.
The Senate plan is bipartisan, and they are planning a separate vote opposing President Obama's executive action on immigration, something extremist House Republicans insist must be included in the funding bill. So far, Speaker John Boehner is on the extremist side, and anti-immigrant, anti-Obama fervor is definitely a part of his position, there's also a large dose of self-interest:
Boehner is playing a game of political survival. Most of his inner circle knows that the House will be forced to swallow a clean DHS funding bill at some point. But if the speaker wants to keep conservatives from launching a rebellion, it may be too early to capitulate. Boehner is aware of the perilous situation he’s facing — which is why, in private conversations with lawmakers, he’s telling them to “stay tuned” without tipping his hand on his next move.
So how can Boehner preserve his own political interests by satisfying extremist Republicans just enough, yet without a prolonged shutdown that would damage his party? Some possibilities:
Boehner and his leadership team are mulling several different options, and the situation is very fluid. One is to approve a one- to two-week stopgap funding bill, alongside a request for a formal negotiation between the House’s bill — which would stop Obama’s unilateral immigration policies — and the Senate’s proposal, which would not change the president’s executive actions.
Another alternative House leaders are weighing is to tie DHS funding to the outcome of a court fight over Obama’s 2014 decision to shield roughly 5 million illegal immigrants from deportation.
One extremist Republican senator could hold up the Senate bill past Friday. John Boehner might decide a few days of shutdown would be the way to stay popular with far-far-right House members who are never really going to trust him anyway, or he might go for a very short-term stopgap bill that would leave DHS dealing with uncertainty and preparing for shutdown for another week or two. Even if, at the last minute, Republicans allow a clean funding bill to get through and avert a shutdown, they've shown that hostage-taking is how they plan to govern for the next two years.