Today is the last red state I'll be redistricting for a while. We'll finally be hitting some more purple and blue states over the next few weeks. After Tennessee gets its time in the spotlight in early April, it'll be a long string of purple and blue states until we reach the final state of this series--Texas. But even my Texas map has a distinct possibility of an even Democratic-Republican delegation. (How's that for a teaser?) Even though the Republicans have a clear advantage in the Cube Root House and the Cube Root Electoral College after this, the eleventh week, those majorities will disappear soon.
Click below the orange squiggle to see how the stars fall on Alabama.
Part 1 -- North Dakota, South Dakota
Part 2 -- Alaska, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire
Part 3 -- Hawaii, Idaho, Nebraska
Part 4 -- West Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada
Part 5 -- Utah, Kansas, West Virginia
Part 6 -- Mississippi, Iowa
Part 7 -- Connecticut, Oklahoma, Oregon
Part 8 -- Kentucky
Part 9 -- South Carolina
Part 10 -- Louisiana
Two maps again. Here's the gerrymander that gives us three of the ten seats:
1st District (blue): Mobile suburbs to Geneva. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile) will move here because running in the 2d District would be political suicide. 76% McCain. Safe R
2d District (green): Black-majority (53.2%) district that goes from Mobile to Tuscaloosa. Open seat that went 61.2% for President Obama. Safe D
3d District (purple): Deep red sections of Montgomery down to Enterprise and Dothan. 67.8% McCain. Technically an open seat, but teabagger Martha Roby (R-Montgomery) will have to run here. She won't touch the 4th. Safe R
4th District (red): Most of Montgomery is here. Selma, Tuskegee, and Opelika are also here. 58.4% Obama with a 51.3% Black majority. Open pickup for a Montgomery Democrat. Safe D
5th District (gold): Tuscaloosa suburbs and far Birmingham suburbs, proceeding west to the Mississippi border. I think that Jasper is the largest city fully contained within this district. Robert Aderholt (R-Haleyville) will cruise in this 78.4% McCain district, the reddest of the lot. Safe R
6th District (teal): Closer Birmingham suburbs. 75.8% McCain. Gary Palmer (R-Birmingham) would be sent here because the 7th is blue, blue, blue. Safe R
7th District (dark gray): Inner Birmingham to Talladega. 65.2% Obama. 53.5% Black majority. Terri Sewell (D-Birmingham) already has a job for life in her current district, but she would be there with two new Alabama Democrats. She won't mind that Tuscaloosa is paired with Mobile instead of Birmingham. Safe D
8th District (slate blue): East central Alabama. Gadsden and Anniston, with a tentacle down to Auburn. 68.8% McCain. Mike Rogers (R-Anniston) can have this seat for as long as he wants. Safe R
9th District (cyan): Florence, Decatur, and Guntersville. Open 69% McCain district. Safe R
10th District (deep pink): Sorry, guys, but there is just no way to get Huntsville into a blue district. I suppose you could attach Huntsville to Birmingham, but that would piss off everybody. Especially Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville). But since he gets this 60.3% McCain district instead of a Huntsville-to-Birmingham baconmander, he'll be quiet for a while. Safe R
12 Electoral Votes: Safe R
The more realistic map. We'd still get a second VRA district.
1st District (blue): This time, it's just Mobile and the Gulf Coast precincts. 57.4% McCain. Byrne doesn't have to move. Safe R
2d District (green): Bay Minette to Enterprise and Dothan. Open 72.3% McCain district. Safe R
3d District (purple): Montgomery to west central Alabama. 57.6% Obama with a 53.9% Black majority. Safe D
4th District (red): Montgomery suburbs to east central Alabama. 57.6% McCain. Probably way less conservative than Roby would prefer, but she would have no choice than to run here. Primary or not, the Republican nominee will romp home in November. Safe R
5th District (gold): Alabaster, Talladega, and Anniston. 70.5% McCain. Rogers is set. Safe R
6th District (teal): This VRA district is now fully contained within Jefferson County. Only slightly bluer than Sewell's Birmingham district above. 65.4% Obama with a 54.6% Black majority. Safe D
7th District (dark gray): Birmingham suburbs. 76.5% McCain. Palmer avoids the 6th and carpetbags here. Safe R
8th District (slate blue): I suppose that Tuscaloosa could have been gerrymandered into the Montgomery district, or even drawn back into a district with Birmingham. But since no current representative lives there, I'm not going to fret about it. Tuscaloosa up to Florence. 62.6% McCain. Aderholt sails, year after year. Safe R
9th District (cyan): Gadsden and Guntersville. 76.9% McCain. Now the reddest district. Any random conservative nutter will win here. Safe R
10th District (deep pink): Huntsville and Decatur. 59.6% McCain. This is probably as low as the Republican percentage will go for a Huntsville-centered district. Brooks remains out of danger. Safe R
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, CT, DE, HI, IA, ID, KS, KY, LA, ME, MS, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, UT, VT, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 44 (added AL-2, AL-4, AL-7)
Lean D: 19
Tossup: 9
Lean R: 7
Safe R: 62 (added AL-1, AL-3, AL-5, AL-6, AL-8, AL-9, AL-10)
Total: 63 D, 9 Toss, 69 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 39 (added AL-3, AL-6)
Lean D: 14
Tossup: 11
Lean R: 9
Safe R: 68 (added AL-1, AL-2, AL-4, AL-5, AL-7, AL-8, AL-9, AL-10)
Total: 53 D, 11 Toss, 77 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, CT, DE, HI, IA, ID, KS, KY, LA, ME, MS, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, UT, VT, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), ME (4), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3) = 40
Lean D: IA (9), ME (1), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), NV (8) = 31
Tossup: NE (1) = 1
Lean R: MT (4), SC (12) = 16
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 109
Total: 71 D, 1 Toss, 125 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), ME (4), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3) = 40
Lean D: ME (1), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7) = 14
Tossup: IA (9), NV (8) = 17
Lean R: MT (4), NE (1), SC (12) = 17
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 109
Total: 54 D, 17 Toss, 126 R