The Mars One project, an attempt to establish a permanent colony on the Red Planet, has been pushed back (another) two years. The first humans to land there as Mars One residents will be launched in 2026. Or later? Or at all?
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Delays, pushbacks, and outright cancellations in the arena of space flight are pretty much the rule, though now and then there are notable exceptions:
"I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the earth. No single space project in this period will be more impressive to mankind, or more important for the long-range exploration of space."
- President John F. Kennedy, Address to Congress on Urgent National Needs, May 25, 1961
They did it!
Back then, manned space exploration was the exclusive territory of a couple of really big governments. In recent years, the private sector has been getting more and more involved in a space industry that continues to grow.
In a press release dated March 31, 2012, Mars One announced a plan to colonize Mars. Mars One is a non-profit organization based in the Netherlands. The ambitious plan would have people living and working on Mars, starting in 2023. Prior to that, as early as 2014 (how did that work out for you?), a series of unmanned missions would conduct technology studies, select the colony site, and deliver living quarters and supplies.
Most of the planned missions, both unmanned and manned, are said to be dependent on Falcon Heavy and Dragon hardware from SpaceX. Minor detail: SpaceX does not appear to have any contracts with Mars One, and no Mars One missions are on their launch schedules. Perhaps I'm just quibbling.
Adventurers who sign up for the mission do so with the understanding that they are buying a one-way ticket to Mars. There is no return to Earth, as the SpaceX ships are only capable of one way trips. There is no manufacturing capability on Mars to build a spaceship to make a return possible. In other words, if you make it to Mars as part of this deal, you are going to die there. And probably your children too, if you make Martian sexytimes (did any OB-GYNs sign up yet?). In the eyes of some, Mars One hasn't so far answered various ethical issues that come from this.
Did I say buy a ticket? During the initial round of applications, which ended on August 31 2013, candidates had to pay an application fee of up to $75. That's small potatoes for a project of this size and cost, and quite reasonable as a processing fee. But there have been accusations that the selection process took into consideration how much money a candidate actually gave to Mars One; the more you gave, the better your chances. Or so it has been alleged:
"When you join the ‘Mars One Community,’ which happens automatically if you applied as a candidate, they start giving you points,” Roche explained to me in an email. “You get points for getting through each round of the selection process (but just an arbitrary number of points, not anything to do with ranking), and then the only way to get more points is to buy merchandise from Mars One or to donate money to them.
- Joseph Roche, one of the "Mars 100" candidates
By that August deadline, Mars One claimed that
over 200,000 people had applied. Perhaps that depends on what the definition of "applied" is. The number of people who actually paid the required fee, and submitted an application video, was 2,761. Round two of the selection process ended in December, 2013. At that time, 1,058 people were still in the running.
In a February 16, 2015 press release, Mars One announced the selection of the Mars 100 group, fifty men and 50 women:
The Mars 100 Round Three candidates were selected from a pool of 660 candidates after participating in personal online interviews with Norbert Kraft, M.D., Chief Medical Officer.
If you read that quickly, it sounds like candidates were interviewed in person, but the devil is in the details. It says "personal online interviews". As Joseph Roche says:
“I have not met anyone from Mars One in person,” he said. “Initially they’d said there were going to be regional interviews… we would travel there, we’d be interviewed, we’d be tested over several days, and in my mind that sounded at least like something that approached a legitimate astronaut selection process.
“But then they made us sign a non-disclosure agreement if we wanted to be interviewed, and then all of a sudden it changed from being a proper regional interview over several days to being a 10-minute Skype call.”
A short Skype call, and a simple questionnaire. Ah yes, the hallmark of any intensive search for astronauts to risk their lives and the lives of others on a dangerous, uncharted mission. At least they didn't make the selection according to their original intent. From that initial 2012 press release:
To finance the mission, Mars One will create an international media event around the project. The audience will help decide as the teams of settlers are selected, follow their extensive training and preparation for the mission and observe their settling on Mars once arrived.
There hasn't been a reality TV show yet, but who knows maybe some day it will happen:
Mars Idol. Yes, the first colonists to populate another planet could be chosen by you, the viewer. Who will be voted off the planet next? So far the TV people, a.k.a. the smart money at this point, haven't bought into the concept.
LaFeminista had a bit of fun last month nominating people to go on the mission.
Despite the names attached to their various press releases, Mars One doesn't have much support in the actual scientific community. Sydney Do and others of MIT, using grant funds from NASA, published a paper (PDF) "AN INDEPENDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY OF THE MARS ONE MISSION PLAN". They are less than enthusiastic about the mission prospects for success:
As the Mars One mission plan represents a dramatic departure from more conservative exploration approaches, there are many uncertainties in the mission design.
They go on at length to analyze the publicly available information from Mars One, and discuss those uncertainties, and the expected results:
A first simulation of the baseline Mars One habitat indicated that with no ISRU-derived resources, the first crew fatality would occur approximately 68 days into the mission. This would be a result of suffocation from too low an oxygen partial pressure within the environment, as depicted in Figure 8.
Others jumping on the bandwagon take that report and, abandoning scientific speak, go
full-on alarmist:
The first Mars One colonists will suffocate, starve, and be incinerated, according to MIT.
Former Canadian astronaut Julie Payette (two NASA shuttle missions):
"Nobody is going anywhere in 10 years."
...
"So if you meet any of those people, don't tell them they're courageous, because the only courage they have is to sign up for a website."
Ouch.
Now this weekend, we learn that the first manned mission has been pushed back two years, to 2026. This is a direct consequence of pushing back the unmanned missions by two years:
The delay was necessitated by a lack of investment funding, which has slowed work on a robotic precursor mission that Mars One had wanted to send toward the Red Planet in 2018, Mars One CEO Bas Lansdorp said in a new video posted today (March 19).
One delay after another. Scientific scepticism. Lack of money. Ridicule. Scathing criticism even from one of the "winning" (so far) contestants. TV contracts falling apart. This does not bode well for Mars One.
As Matter sums it up:
So, here are the facts as we understand them: Mars One has almost no money. Mars One has no contracts with private aerospace suppliers who are building technology for future deep-space missions. Mars One has no TV production partner. Mars One has no publicly known investment partnerships with major brands. Mars One has no plans for a training facility where its candidates would prepare themselves. Mars One’s candidates have been vetted by a single person, in a 10-minute Skype interview.
At T minus 10 seconds, nine, eight, seven, ... oh never mind, nobody's going anywhere.
TOP COMMENTS
March 22, 2015
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From gooderservice:
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From JerryNA:
In PvtJarHead's diary "Wisconsin Republicans Eliminate Weekends", Metro99 has a comment that deserves to be a full diary, more ways corporations are fleecing workers.
From Mopshell:
In the same PvtJarHead must-read diary as immediately above, indie17 explains why we must GOTV now, not a year or a year and a half from now, in this succinct and crucially important comment.
Flagged by IndieGuy:
In Senator Bernie Sanders' diary "If We Don't Overturn Citizens United, Congress Will Become Paid Employees of the Billionaire Class", TJ succinctly challenges the senator's time line.
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In Egberto Willies' diary "Governor Jerry Brown on Ted Cruz: 'that man betokens such a level of ignorance'", Quabbin compares Brown vs. Cruz.
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TOP MOJO
March 21, 2015
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1) You don't tailor your campaign to the existing by Paleo — 98
2) He made the city pay for his friend's by ExpatGirl — 80
3) I'd like to make a complaint . by indycam — 80
4) Scritchie Jar by triciawyse — 79
5) Yup by Empty Vessel — 75
6) In principle, yes. However, recent events have by David Harris Gershon — 74
7) Yes, don't you just love the false dilemma? by rudewarrior — 70
8) Y'know, you could be right. But everything by samanthab — 67
9) OMG, I am so glad to see you by belinda ridgewood — 66
10) McConnell is saying by onionjim — 64
11) Expecting a bill at some point in the future... by Chaddiwicker — 63
12) Thanks for the personal insult. Thankfully I've by Tool — 61
13) Beinart has really come a long way by Paleo — 58
14) Thanks! by Haole in Hawaii — 58
15) Shake! by Haole in Hawaii — 58
16) This is why I always preach rescuing dogs! :) by BoiseBlue — 56
17) somehow they've never noticed by PJEvans — 55
18) And a wave by Haole in Hawaii — 55
19) Great, let him do it. We can use the money here. by falconer520 — 55
20) I suppose they could crash weddings, make a sce... by Bob Love — 55
21) I talked to our rabbi in Israel after services by Navy Vet Terp — 53
22) You mean realists like HRC and many Dems voting by We Shall Overcome — 53
23) Don't forget a daughter for 2 goats and a sheep. by karma5230 — 52
24) Oui, les GOPosaurs sont du carbone fossilizé eom by Mokurai — 52
25) Cumming GA drew nation wide attention in 1987 by worldlotus — 52
26) Oustanding photos, by Joe Jackson — 51
27) Wow, so good to see you here. Love your by Regina in a Sears Kit House — 50
28) It is a "Bernese" not Burmese Mountain Dog by J M F — 50
29) In fact, overall results are mild leftward shift. by Assaf — 49
30) Put aside his words by Paleo — 49
31) Well, I don't live downwind of coal plants. by Village Vet — 49
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March 21, 2015
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