Democratic Senate candidate Patrick Murphy
On Monday, Florida Rep. Patrick Murphy
announced that he would run for Senate, whether or not Republican incumbent Marco Rubio seeks a second term. On Wednesday, Murphy earned two pieces of good news: He picked up a major endorsement from
ex-Gov. Charlie Crist, and he also got welcome polling numbers
from Public Policy Polling, which surveyed the Sunshine State's 2016 Senate contest for the first time. Here's how Murphy fares against a battery of possible GOP opponents:
• Rubio 48, Murphy 41
• Atwater 41, Murphy 39
• Bondi 45, Murphy 41
• Lopez-Cantera 34, Murphy 41
• West 39, Murphy 41
While Rubio understandably starts with a lead, an open seat race would begin as a tossup. Rubio posts a positive 45-40 approval rating which, while not fantastic, is nothing to sneeze at in a time when Congress is so universally despised. Still, Murphy has to be happy that he's holding the incumbent below 50 at the outset.
Rubio has not announced his 2016 plans, but he looks very likely to seek the presidency rather than run for re-election. Rubio has pledged not to campaign for both offices at once and it's not hard to see why. It's difficult enough to run for either the White House or for re-election in a swing state, and doing both at once would be a superhuman task. While the NRSC might be relieved if Rubio decides to put his presidential ambitions on hold, his fellow Republicans are already positioning themselves to run to succeed him.
State Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater and Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera have both met with national Republicans about potentially running, and at least in the early going, Atwater posts better numbers, though that's due to his greater name recognition. As for Attorney General Pam Bondi, while she hasn't formally ruled out a Senate run, she seems to have her eyes on the governorship in 2018. Finally, PPP tested former Rep. Allen West, whom Murphy narrowly unseated in 2012; if they took a rematch statewide, things would be similarly tight. But while Democrats would love it if the incendiary West made a comeback, his recent move to Texas means they shouldn't bother hoping.
Head below the fold for more on this Florida Senate race.
However, Florida Republicans aren't ready to give up on the dream because West remains their favorite. In a kitchen-sink primary scenario, West takes 38 percent while Bondi pulls in 25, Atwater takes just 12, and Lopez-Cantera brings up the rear with 8. Atwater unsurprisingly crushed Lopez-Cantera in a more realistic two-way matchup, 41-15. But who knows what sort of primary we'll wind up with? In recent days, former state House Speaker Will Weatherford and Reps. Vern Buchanan and Ron DeSantis have talked about running, and there are plenty of other Republicans who could go for it if Rubio bails.
It's also worth noting that Mason-Dixon recently tested Murphy against both Rubio and Atwater and found dramatically different numbers: They gave Rubio a 50-38 lead and found Atwater up 46-32. We don't have much other data to go on, but it seems very unlikely that Murphy would be running if he were seeing numbers that looked anywhere near as bad as Mason-Dixon's.
Meanwhile, Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson has also been talking about running for Senate, and PPP tested him against each Republican. At this stage, his topline numbers are basically indistinguishable from Murphy's:
• Rubio 49, Grayson 40
• Atwater 41, Grayson 40
• Bondi 45, Grayson 42
• Lopez-Cantera 36, Grayson 40
• West 39, Grayson 42
However, the DSCC has made it amply clear that they prefer Murphy as their standard-bearer. Murphy has a reputation as a formidable campaigner, and he easily held a light red House seat during the 2014 GOP wave (albeit against a weak Republican foe). By contrast, while Grayson has plenty of money to burn, he's much more of a loose cannon. At this early stage neither congressman is well-known statewide, but Murphy's 21-13 favorable rating is quite a bit better than Grayson's 20-26 score. A hypothetical primary starts off virtually tied, with Grayson edging Murphy just 22-21 despite being better-known.
We have a long way to go in this contest, but both parties know that this seat could very well decide control of the Senate. A very expensive and intense race is expected, and we'll be following it closely at Daily Kos Elections.