Can 2015 Yemen become 1991 Kuwait considering the fine lines in the sand being drawn in deciding which alliances will become important. Will peacekeeping be distinguished between regime change or restoration in a proxy war among oil states. An unfortunate rise in oil prices should remain temporary, and as always the dominant dispute remains
sectarian. Air superiority has been achieved and Egypt is in the midst of planning a land assault which may have a variety of secondary effects favorable to the US in terms of the potential suppression of violent extremist groups.
The Associated Press, citing unnamed military officials, reported that plans for an Egyptian invasion were already underway, and many analysts had already concluded that airstrikes alone had little chance of pushing back the Houthis...
Along with Iraq, Libya and Syria, Yemen is the fourth Arab nation where an attempt to build a new democracy has been consumed by civil conflict, regional proxy wars and the expansion of extremist groups like the Islamic State and Al Qaeda.
The Houthi leadership, which hails from northern Yemen, practices a variant of Shiite Islam, the religion of the Iranian theocracy. Saudi Arabia, the region’s Sunni Muslim power, is backing forces loyal to President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who has fled the capital, Sana, and has taken refuge among his supporters in the south.
ENERGY: Oil prices were in the ascendant amid concerns of spreading turmoil in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia bombed key military installations in Yemen overnight. The benchmark U.S. crude futures contract was up $2.20 at $51.41 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent crude futures contract, a benchmark for international oils, was up $2.34 at $58.81 in London.
YEMENI WORRIES: The main driver in markets was the news from Yemen where Saudi Arabia has launched strikes, along with others, to oust Shiite rebels that forced the country's embattled president to flee. Some of the strikes hit positions in the country's capital, Sanaa, and flattened a number of homes near the international airport.
ANALYST TAKE: "The conflict has the potential to act as a drag on oil supplies as most oil tankers from Arab producers must pass by the Yemen coastline in order to get through the Red Sea and Suez Canal," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.
A coalition led by Saudi Arabia has launched air strikes against Shia Houthi rebels in Yemen, saying it is "defending the legitimate government" of President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi.
A conflict that pulls in regional powers could disrupt global oil supplies, and the price of Brent crude rose almost 6% after the strikes began....
Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya TV reported that the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, Morocco and Sudan were sending aircraft, while Egypt, Jordan, Sudan and Pakistan were ready to take part in any ground offensive. Oman is the only Gulf Arab state not participating.
The US said it was providing "logistical and intelligence support".
The White House said in a statement that the United States would provide “logistical and intelligence support” to the Saudi-led military operations. “While U.S. forces are not taking direct military action in Yemen in support of this effort, we are establishing a joint planning cell with Saudi Arabia to coordinate U.S. military and intelligence support,” Bernadette Meehan, a spokeswoman for the National Security Council, said in a statement.
As Mr Jubair spoke, huge explosions were heard in Sanaa, as warplanes attacked the al-Dulaimi air base near the international airport and other locations. Rebel fighters responded by firing anti-aircraft guns and missiles.
Security officials told the Associated Press that the targets included a missile base controlled by the Houthis, as well as a nearby fuel depot. A camp for a US-trained special forces unit loyal to ousted former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who is backing the rebels, was also hit.
Over the past months, the Houthis have swept out of their northern strongholds to take over the capital and much of the north. The U.S.- and Gulf-backed president, Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, was forced to flee to the southern port of Aden, hoping to cling to authority with the backing of some police and military units and allied militiamen. But as the Houthis and their allies bore down on Aden, Hadi left the country by boat on Wednesday afternoon, according to security officials.
Hadi reappeared Thursday evening, arriving by plane at an airbase in the Saudi capital Riyadh, Saudi state TV reported. A Yemeni security official told the AP the president had gone by boat to the Yemeni port of al-Mukalla in the western province of Hadramawt, where he spent the night. The next day, he drove across the border into neighbouring Oman and from there was flown to Riyadh. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to release the information.
Hadi is expected to attend an Arab summit in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on Saturday.
The Houthis have succeeded in their advance in large part because of help from Saleh, the autocrat who ruled Yemen for more than 30 years until he was ousted following a 2011 Arab Spring popular uprising. However, he remained in the country and some of the strongest military units remained loyal to him, undermining Hadi. Those units have now fought alongside the Houthis.
Three Egyptian military and security officials told The Associated Press that a coalition of countries led by Egypt and Saudi Arabia will conduct a ground invasion into Yemen once the airstrikes have sufficiently diminished the Houthis and Saleh's forces. They said the assault will be by ground from Saudi Arabia and by landings on Yemen's Red and Arabian Sea coasts.
The aim is not to occupy Yemen but to weaken the Houthis and their allies until they enter negotiations for power-sharing, the officials said.
They said three to five Egyptian troop carriers are stationed off Yemen's coasts. They would not specify the numbers of troops or when the operation would begin. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk about the plans with the press.