With Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL) announcing he'll be the
fifth Republican vote for attorney general nominee Loretta Lynch, a bunch of other undeclared Republicans are somewhat off the hook for not having to be the deciding vote. But they'll be closely watched because this vote will loom large come 2016, when
they're up for re-election, or running for president.
The closeness of the vote has put additional pressure on the 2016 contenders. Seventeen Republicans who are up for reelection in 2016 have said they will oppose Lynch's nomination. They include [Wisconsin's Ron] Johnson and vulnerable Republican Sens. Richard Burr of North Carolina and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, as well as presidential contenders Sens. Rand Paul and Marco Rubio.
The rest are undecided, including some of the 2016 map's most vulnerable members. And Kirk's decision to give Lynch the fifth Republican vote she needs could provide breathing room to those 2016ers who remain on the fence to make a decision in either direction.
Sens. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, and Rob Portman of Ohio are keeping mum and are top-targets for Democrats hoping to bolster their numbers in favor of Lynch. Sen. Mike Crapo, in a much safer seat for a 2016 reelection, also is undecided on Lynch.
Johnson, Burr, and Toomey are likely trying to shut out potential primary challenges, and this supposed tough line on immigration (Lynch is just the proxy for that at this point) might stave that off. The remainder have generally tried to paint themselves as moderates, needing to because of their vulnerable seats. (Crapo is not at all vulnerable, not unless he has many more
well-publicized vodka shot incidents, which don't play too well in heavily Mormon Idaho.) Beyond them, there's another 13 who haven't said one way or another, including Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and two of his leadership team, Sens. John Barrasso (WY) and John Thune (SD).
Meanwhile, the clock keeps ticking on what has already become a historic delay, and it's not making any Republican look any better to the outside world, taking his nomination of the first black woman to be attorney general hostage for completely unrelated reasons.