Hillary PACman eats the others.
Warning! Use of statistics and pie(charts) ahead!
I like statistics and graphs. During Obama's election campaigns I had a blast. I'd start here at DKos, then on to TPM polltracker, Pollster.com, 538, Princeton Election Consortium, Votamatic ... but I wasn't addicted. I could have stopped anytime. And then it stopped. I got bored and missed the daily fun. No 538's statistics or Votamatic's dynamic Bayesian forecasting model, nothing. Even historical models build on metrics like change in GDP, Presidential approval data, party approval, etc. Metrics that are not relevant until we get closer to the election.
So then, what's available?
What was available is odds from online bookmaking websites. Is the data a reliable indication of the 2016 presidential result? No, not at all. The data is an indication of how professional odds makers earn money off of rubes by turning a percent chance into odds, and getting the rubes to waste their money chasing the elusive "big score".
More subjective musings under the orange dog hair fluff.
I'll start out with some basics. All the odds are from one company, a world leader in the betting and gaming industry. I chose them because there was just too much work aggregating 14 different companies. Odds vary.
There are three ways to represent odds, all of which are an expression of the same percent. Fractional, Decimal and American. I use decimal myself to keep it simple. I know that fractional is the preferred method in the UK, but that only proves that the UK is going metric - inch by inch. So, if the decimal odds for Hillary to win the Democratic nomination is 1.25, then the percent chance is 1/odds or in this case 1/1.25 = 0.8 = 80%. If you need to know more about percent, ask the Google. The same odds as fractional odds are 1/4 and the American odds are -400. Now you see why I convert to percentages.
Lets start with some elementary Winning Party pie. I guess the 1% is Bernie. Go Bernie!
Winning party percentages
Notice that the percentages add op to more than 100. That's what's called an overbook. It's where the bookmakers put their thumb on the scale in order to make money. Ok, how does that translate to money, if I make a bet of $1? The decimal odds are 1.8 for the Dems, 2.1 for the Repubs and 101 for an independent. If I win I get my $1 back and $0.80 if I bet on the Dems, $1.1 if I bet on the Repubs, and $100 for Bernie! If I lose I lose my $1. That makes sense.
And now to confuse here is the percent representation of Gender of the Winner:
Gender of the Winner
That sure looks like anti-feminism has entered the bookmaking business. Statistically Hillary is a 80% favorite for the Democratic nomination, and my hero Elizabeth Warren is at 11%. All the Democratic women candidates total 99% on their own. The men, they only total 67%. 166% is a lot of overbook. The Republican primary females are Susana Martinez at just under 4% followed by Carly, Condoleeza, Nikki, Lindsey and Sarah for a total of 12%. Oh! I do declare! I think I made a little bitte mistake there!
Anyways, the rest of the male clown car is 155%, so there are a lot more men than women as potential candidates.