Chalk this one up for some "good news" in the overwhelming task of slowing-down and reversing, the anticipated "worse effects" of Climate Change.
Recent data show that the accelerated release of the super-charged green-house gas Methane from the melting permafrost, will likely be more 'slow and steady' -- instead of hopelessly 'explosive'.
Permafrost 'carbon bomb' unlikely, but worries over northern thaw persist
by Yereth Rosen, Alaska Dispatch News -- April 17, 2015
Cross one thing off the long list of possible apocalyptic climate-change scenarios: A new scientific analysis concludes that a “carbon bomb” of greenhouse gases emitted from thawing terrestrial permafrost is not likely.
Permafrost on land around the circumpolar north will likely continue to thaw and release carbon dioxide and methane, but at a gradual rate through the end of the century and beyond, said the study, published last week in the journal Nature.
[...]
“Twenty years ago, this idea of a permafrost carbon bomb was put forward,” McGuire said. There wasn’t much research then on the subject, but now “there’s a lot more information,” he said. He and others in the international Permafrost Carbon Network, a group of scientists formed in 2011, distilled the new information to come up with the conclusions made in the study.
“We came down clearly on the side that the carbon bomb is not likely, but the reality of permafrost carbon is still an issue of concern,” said McGuire, who is the Permafrost Carbon Network's co-principal investigator.
[...]
Whew! That just bought the Eco-pessimists (and the Eco-apathetic) some time.
But will we use it ... wisely?
Or simply say, that's the next generation's problem -- "so, good for them" ...
Here's a summary of that "good news" just published in Nature:
Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback
by E. A. G. Schuur,
A. D. McGuire,
C. Schädel,
G. Grosse,
J. W. Harden,
D. J. Hayes,
G. Hugelius,
C. D. Koven,
P. Kuhry,
D. M. Lawrence,
S. M. Natali,
D. Olefeldt,
V. E. Romanovsky,
K. Schaefer,
M. R. Turetsky,
C. C. Treat
& J. E. Vonk
Affiliations
Contributions
Corresponding author
Nature 520, 171–179 (09 April 2015) -- doi:10.1038/nature14338
Received
14 July 2014
Accepted
12 February 2015
Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.
One 'global threat' down,
only about a dozen more to go.
Maybe those generations to follow us, do have a reason to be hopeful?
Here's another hopeful sign, that we still have time to set our carbon-ways right:
Modern Scientific Inventiveness is putting carbon-capture in a whole new light -- literally.
It is taking the carbon out of the air, combining it with sunshine, and then creating the Chemical precursors, that so many of our modern industries and practices actually need -- and will pay for. In other words, it has market Incentive$$$.
Major advance in artificial photosynthesis poses win/win for the environment
from phys.org -- Apr 16, 2015
As that guy in Jurassic Park says:
"Life finds a way."
Even when it is human-molded, and human-impacted Life.
The Imperative is there.
That will to survive. Even in a world of unimaginable, and often unseen, often ignored "threats."