Systems are stable and remain so if they can successfully absorb or destroy any movement that threatens them. When they can no longer do that they become unstable. System instability is a variation on chaos. I say that because unstable and chaotic systems are unpredictable.
Systems based on oppression are very sensitive to these conditions. They appear stable for long periods of time. Yet that stability is fragile in that it requires those being oppressed by the system to believe they have a stake in the system. Otherwise
There is no one more dangerous than someone who has become convinced that they have nothing more to lose.
There are no formulas or dynamic laws to use to assess the condition of any given system. There is the dynamic instability we call a "tipping point". It is a cusp on a state surface that models the dynamics of a dynamic system. The topology of such system dynamics is related to Thom's catastrophe theory.
Human social systems are far to complex to be modeled with this elegant pictorial theory, yet it can serve as a metaphor very well. Read on below if you are interested. I'll be brief.
History provides us with many examples of such tipping points. They are almost always preceded by instability. A kind of social turbulence. These get given various names such as insurrection, riot, uprising, etc. These very visible events ride on top of less visible undercurrents. Eruptions occur periodically when a few individuals reach the "nothing more to lose" state and act on it. They are capable of varying degrees of organization and orchestration. The conspiratorial notion of "outside agitators" is one way the system tries to discredit any organizing force that exists.
In our minds, which are almost totally conditioned to see events piecemeal, the existence of an underlying self organizing system challenging the existing system is usually missed. The various kinds of establishment propaganda designed to hide the new system and make events seem disjoint and sporadic have more than one effect. They mask the growing challenge and also keep it from growing too fast. Time is important here for a successful system challenge must be well organized if it is to succeed. Success is not merely the destabilization of the oppressive system but also the ability to ward off opportunistic counter forces that are also waiting to seize the opportunity. This is important. All too often the forces that might have won in such a situation are unprepared for success and thereby lose to those who are.
What does this all mean to us today? I have my model and each of you has yours. Most people at this sight overplay the role of elections in all this. Elections have a purpose, but it is not to fundamentally change the system that is using the electoral process to oppress us.
We worked hard on these ideas in the 1960s. We realized that only by having a working system to put into place when the oppressive system collapsed could there be real change. We experimented with "parallel institutions" and various ways of governing our groups in a more democratic manner.
There is some of this going on now and it is healthy. I may be too old to know about it if it is anything like it was then.We had to move around and experience what others were accomplishing.
The internet is a big unknown to me. We had the alternative press back then but the internet is far more powerful and complex. Nevertheless it leaves me with a sense of not being real. It is too easy to speak out on the internet without being truly involved in the systematic processes that make real world change happen.
I am too old to expect to see how this all works out. I do sense that the level of instability is rising for a lot of reasons. I hope it all turns out well for you youngsters.