The folks over at Daily Kos Elections have been doing a great job giving the Philadelphia Mayoral primary race some attention over the past month. Though campaigns have been active since the turn of the new year, the race only started to take shape over the past month.
As expected, Councilman Jim Kenney (who resigned his At-Large seat to run for Mayor) has overwhelmingly won the Democratic Mayoral primary election, with over 55% of the total vote among six candidates. Kenney is the super-favorite to become the next Mayor of Philadelphia come November's election, as the city is overwhelmingly Democratic and has not elected a Republican mayor since 1951.
As recently as one month ago, the race was a three-way tie between Kenney, PA State Senator Anthony Williams, and former District Attorney Lynne Abraham.
How do you go from 25% to 55% in just one month?
For one, Williams pledged to replace the Police Commissioner. Except one problem with that, the Police Commissioner has the highest favorability rating of any Philadelphia official. (That was covered by DK Elections not so long ago).
Also, Williams has ties to Main Line millionaires pushing a school voucher agenda (flooding his campaign with several million dollars), so that certainly doesn't help. That story has received much attention over the last month, so I believe that voters were aware of that.
From the AP article:
From the start, Kenney's chief rival was always presumed to be Williams, who was counting on support from the city's black voters. Williams also had the backing of three wealthy Main Line financial traders who, like Williams, favor school choice.
Those backers put up $6.8 million in an ultimately unsuccessful advertising campaign to elect Williams.
That effort only raised suspicions for voters such as Mount Airy resident Jane Century.
"I don't understand the logic," Century said. "But it's certainly not out of the goodness of their hearts."
Century's vote went to Kenney, who she called the "the what-you-see-is-what-you-get" candidate.
Give parents credit for not buying that stuff, as it seems really appealing for parents essentially trapped in impoverished neighborhoods to send their children to the best public and charter schools in the city. I'm not knowledgeable enough to comment on education policy, but at a minimum it seems that vouchers received a resounding "no".
Lynne Abraham is on the wrong side of drug and police reform, which is particularly troubling and against the trend of city residents. Kenney played a major roll in getting a bill to decriminalize marijuana passed last year (either was the author or whipped up council votes, perhaps both).
Kenney's victory coalition was quite remarkable. He received major support and significant vote totals from pretty much every demographic imaginable - blacks, latinos, whites, labor, young professionals, long-term residents. Williams staked much of his path to victory on dominating with black voters, and it came up way short. As the AP article states, Kenney is a loyal son of Philadelphia with strong South Philly roots, but he has bucked his constituents (and in a good way) by leading the way on marriage equality and marijuana decriminalization, among other issues. Other progressives are quite pleased with this result.
Jim Kenney will face Republican Melissa Murray Bailey in November, but baring any major scenario that would require Kenney to withdraw from the race, he will become the next Mayor of Philadelphia.
Long-term residents can jump in and comment from their local districts. I'm a relatively new resident of Philly (6 years) and semi-transient (currently wrapping up grad school, would love to stay but depends on job situation).