Latest poll numbers from Iowa. This poll conducted by the DesMoines Register.
Here:
Iowa Democrats Stick With Hillary Clinton in Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Poll
Clinton is the first choice for 57 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers in a new Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll conducted May 25-29, up a percentage point from the previous poll in January.
Sanders, the independent senator from Vermont running for president as a Democrat, has surged to become the top pick of 16 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers, more than triple the 5 percent he drew in January. Part of that is likely due to Sanders's recent formal entry into the race, while Warren, the Massachusetts senator whom many progressives urged to run as a liberal alternative to Clinton, has repeatedly said she won't run and wasn't listed as a likely candidate in this poll.
Vice President Joe Biden, who is not an announced candidate, is next at 8 percent, while former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley and former Virginia Senator Jim Webb each drew 2 percent.
Difference between Hillary and Bernie is 41%. O'Malley is still way behind at 2%, together with Webb. This poll decided not to include Lincoln Chafee in the questions, but it is probably a safe bet that he would have garnered no more than 1% anyway.
Clinton's favorability rating among likely Democratic caucus-goers is actually two points higher now, at 86 percent, than in January. Her unfavorable rating is down three points, to 12 percent. Sanders's favorability got a boost to 47 percent from 37 percent, while 41 percent still say they don't know how they feel about him.
“The reality is, this is a field where nobody has effectively stepped up to challenge Hillary Clinton, full stop,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of West Des Moines-based Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll.
86% favorability among Democrats in Iowa is incredible for Hillary. Her unfavorable are at 12%. The +- net favorables for her are at 74%. Bernie's favorables are at 47%, his unfavorables are at 12% for a +- net of 35%.
From the crosstabs, which can be viewed here:
http://images.businessweek.com/...
In addition to the 57% Hillary gets, she is the second choice for 15% more respondent. First and second choice responses combine to 72% for Hillary. That is likely a function of most of Biden's support going to Hillary, but there is also a cache of Sanders' support ready to jump to Hillary if something were to happen to him.
What makes things a bit more problematic for Sanders and O'Malley moving forward is one of the last questions in this poll:
(Ask only for each candidate NOT answered as first or second choice in horserace.] I’m going to mention the Democrats who are not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever support the person for president or would never support the person for president.
Never means that the candidate in question will not receive a vote, no matter what.
Hillary is at 9% on that question. Bernie is at double that amount. 18% of Democrats state that they would never vote for Bernie. 13% of Iowa Democrats say that about O'Malley and Webb.
Bernie is doing worse than any of the contenders on the "Never" question, he doubles up on Hillary there. That, and the overall horserace numbers, suggests that Hillary is seen as the better "fit" for Iowa Democrats at this point.
Conclusion: Iowa is strongly going for Hillary at this point. Her first and second choice numbers as well as the "Never" numbers suggest that her poll numbers are likely to increase in Iowa as Biden starts being excluded from polls in the future with her getting the lion share of his current support. (Biden isn't going to run.)