Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet got some good news Monday
If you heard some loud crying Monday afternoon, it may have been NRSC chief Roger Wicker reacting to the news that Rep. Mike Coffman
will not be challenging Colorado Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet next year. It's been clear for a long time that Coffman has been far and away the GOP's top choice for this race, but he never sounded incredibly interested in leaving the House. Maybe the GOP will hope that Coffman does what now-Sen. Cory Gardner did last cycle and
change his mind, but we shouldn't hold our breath.
Team Red has some backup options, but none of them are incredibly compelling. El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn has been running for months, but almost no one has noticed. State Sen. Ellen Roberts has talked about going for it, and Coffman's absence should give her more incentive. But Roberts' social views leave her vulnerable to attacks on both sides: She voted for a 2013 bill that legalized civil unions and she identifies as pro-choice, but she backed a fetal homicide law and supported a proposal that would have let parents opt their children out of vaccinations.
After Roberts, the GOP's potential candidates look either unavailable or undesired. Coffman's wife state Attorney General Cynthia Coffman may get some calls, but she sounded even less likely to run than Mike. Cynthia only took office in January, so it also probably wouldn't look great if she turned around and sought another office. Rep. Scott Tipton hasn't quite said no to a Senate race, but his office threw some cold water on the idea last month. Arapahoe County District Attorney George Brauchler would be an interesting candidate but he's busy prosecuting the 2012 Aurora movie theater shooter, and he sounds more interested in a gubernatorial bid in 2018. Treasurer Walker Stapleton has occasionally been mentioned but he sounded luke warm at best about a campaign in January.
The NRSC may try changing some minds, because the pickings get very slim after that. Rep. Ken Buck lost to Bennet in 2010 despite the GOP wave, and he's probably going to be reluctant to give up his newly-won House seat anyway. State Sen. Owen Hill and state Rep. Amy Stephens ran forgettable 2014 campaigns, and businessman Robert Blaha spent heavily in 2012 only to badly lose his primary against Rep. Doug Lamborn. There's little doubt that the GOP will target Bennet next year in one of their few pickup opportunities and maybe we'll see some new names come into play. Still, Bennet has proven himself to be a tough campaigner, and he won't be easy to unseat with presidential turnout.
While Coffman's decision may upset the NRSC, their counterparts in the NRCC won't be so devastated. Coffman represents suburban Denver's 6th District, which Obama carried 52-47, and he demonstrated in 2012 and 2014 that he's very capable of holding onto it. The DCCC has been reaching out to state Senate Minority Leader Morgan Carroll, and Centennial Councilor Rebecca McClellan is also a potential candidate. This is a seat Democrats absolutely need to have any shot at a House majority anytime soon, but beating Coffman on his own turf isn't going to be easy.