A hypothetical court-drawn map of Virginia congressional districts
Leading Off:
• VA Redistricting: In a blow to Republicans, a three-judge federal panel has once again ruled that Virginia's congressional map is an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. The 3rd District, located in the Richmond and Hampton Roads areas, was the focus of plaintiffs' objections, and a majority of the judges agreed that the GOP packed too many African-American voters into this seat—a move that strengthened their hold over neighboring districts.
If this case sounds familiar, that's because this same trio of judges previously invalidated the map back in October. Back then, the U.S. Supreme Court ordered the panel to reconsider the case in light of a new SCOTUS ruling that found that Alabama's legislative maps constituted an impermissible racial gerrymander.
Since the high court's Alabama decision was friendly to the plaintiffs who'd alleged that race had been improperly taken into consideration in the first place, it's unsurprising that the Virginia judges, who had originally found for the plaintiffs in their case, haven't changed their minds. As a remedy, they've ordered the legislature to redraw the lines to remedy the map's unconstitutional defects by Sept. 1. If that doesn't happen, the court will have to step in, assuming the GOP does not successfully appeal this ruling.
And there's a good chance we'll see such a logjam happen. Both the state House and Senate are controlled by Republicans, while the governor, Terry McAuliffe, is a Democrat. But what would a stalemate mean for Virginia's congressional districts? Stephen Wolf proposed a hypothetical map that would unpack African-American voters from Democratic Rep. Bobby Scott's 3rd District and make the 4th—currently held by GOP Rep. Randy Forbes—majority black. Both districts would be reliably blue, so if we see an outcome like this, we can expect Republicans to keep appealing.
For now, though, this ruling is very good news for Democrats, since as long as it holds up, it's likely to net the party an additional seat. Given that Barack Obama won Virginia 51-47, it's a travesty that Mitt Romney carried seven of the commonwealth's 11 congressional districts. This case won't create parity within Virginia's delegation, but it'll help move things in the right direction.
Senate:
• CO-Sen: Now that Rep. Mike Coffman has ruled out a bid against Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet, state Sen. Ellen Roberts has attracted some attention as a possible backup GOP candidate. On paper, Roberts could be a compelling general election contender as a socially moderate woman. However, a recent radio interview didn't exactly inspire confidence in her abilities.
Roberts initially claimed she "never called myself pro-choice as a politician," a statement she had to walk back days later. Roberts also initially deflected a question about Roe v. Wade before clarifying later that she could "say with no equivocation is I support abortion being legal under Roe v. Wade." Any Republican hoping to unseat Bennet is going to need a lot to go right, and it's not a good sign for Team Red that one of their most likely candidates flubbed some questions she should have seen coming from miles away.
• IL-Sen: On Thursday, Sen. Dick Durbin endorsed Rep. Tammy Duckworth in the Democratic primary to face GOP Sen. Mark Kirk. Durbin's decision isn't a huge surprise: The two are close, and Durbin helped recruit her in 2005 for her first race. Duckworth currently faces Chicago Urban League head Andrea Zopp, with Rep. Robin Kelly and state Sen. Napoleon Harris also considering.
• IN-Sen: The GOP primary to succeed retiring Sen. Dan Coats currently pits former Coats' aide Eric Holcomb against Rep. Marlin Stutzman, but it sounds like things are about to get a lot more crowded.
Rep. Todd Young and state Sen. Mike Delph have expressed interest in running, and state Sen. Jim Merritt publicly confirmed for the first time that he's looking at this seat, and says that he'll decide sometime in the summer. But according to Brian Howey, both state senators have been preparing campaigns behind-the-scenes for a while (neither of them would need to sacrifice their seat). Young may not be completely committed to a Senate bid, but Howey writes that he's getting things ready.
A five-way race could get quite chaotic. Holcomb and Young hail from the more establishment wing of the party, while Stutzman and Delph are closer to tea partiers. That could give Merritt, who doesn't appear to fit in neatly with either faction, a chance to slip through. Two other notable Republicans are also publicly mulling bids. Rep. Todd Rokita says he expects to make a decision by the end of the month, while House Speaker Brian Bosma says he's also considering. However, Bosma admits it's unlikely he'll jump in when all is said and done.
On the Democratic side, former Rep. Baron Hill has the primary to himself for now, but state Rep. Christina Hale says she'll make a decision in July. While Hale isn't as well-known nationally, EMILY's List and the Human Rights Campaign are reportedly keeping an eye on her. Hale was a prominent opponent of the Religious Freedom Restoration Act while Hill has a reputation as a social conservative, though he may have shifted during his time away from Congress.
Gubernatorial:
• IN-Gov: Superintendent of Public Instruction Glenda Ritz only kicked off her bid for the Democratic nomination on Thursday, but the fault lines in the primary are already becoming clear. Ex-state House Speaker and 2012 nominee John Gregg has already earned the backing of several union groups, and it's not only because of his long ties to labor. Ritz reportedly sought influential labor leader David Frye's support a few weeks ago and not only did Frye turn her down, he criticized her husband for running a non-union construction business. If Ritz becomes the Democratic nominee, any lingering tensions could hamper her bid against GOP Gov. Mike Pence.
Social issues are also likely to come into play. Gregg has a long history opposing same-sex marriage and while he's been a vocal opponent of the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, Ritz's more socially liberal views could give her an opening. State Sen. Karen Tallian is also running as a progressive, and she could conceivably eat into Ritz's base. However, it doesn't sound like Tallian will have the resources to win, and she's at risk of being portrayed as a one-issue candidate over her outspoken support for legalizing marijuana (one Democratic activist memorably called her "the pot princess here in Indiana"). EMILY's List and the Human Rights Campaign are also keeping an eye on this contest, and the National Journal says they're looking at both Ritz and Tallian.
House:
• IL-11: GOP DuPage County Board Member Tonia Khouri quietly set up a campaign committee back in April, but she never said anything public about her intentions. However, Khouri's team says she'll "be making an announcement soon" about her plans to challenge Democratic incumbent Bill Foster, so we can finally rule out the possibility that Khouri just unknowingly sleep-filed with the FEC. Obama won this suburban Chicago seat 58-41, and Foster won't be easy to beat in a presidential cycle.
• IN-02: A little while ago, Brian Howey reported that state Sen. Carlin Yoder was interested in challenging incumbent Jackie Walorski in the GOP primary. The The Elkhart Truth recently asked Yoder about his plans, and while he didn't sound gung-ho about a congressional campaign, he didn't exactly rule it out either. Yoder claims he's not sure who is circulating the rumors and that seeking re-election next year is his "focus at this point," adding, "I have not done any work to chase a U.S. representative seat." If Yoder is closing the door on a House bid, no reason he can't just say, "I'm not going to run against Walorski."
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Taniel.