A fresh look at the Michigan congressional map, thanks to the new glasses that I got late last week.
Previous states, in publishing order: ND/SD, AK/DE/ME/NH, HI/ID/NE, WV/NM/NV, UT/KS/WV, MS/IA, CT/OK/OR, KY, SC, LA, AL, CO, MN, WI, MD, MO, TN, AZ, IN, MA, WA, VA, NJ, NC, GA, MI (Part I)
The "good government" map:
1st District (blue): Open or John Conyers (D-Detroit). Downtown and east Detroit. 86% Obama. 64.6% Black. Conyers has a choice between this and the 2d District, but he will win in either one. Safe D no matter who the Democratic nominee is.
2d District (green): Open or Conyers. North central Detroit and parts of Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, and Redford. 92.4% Obama, the bluest district in this map. 72.1% Black. Safe D no matter the nominees.
3d District (purple): Debbie Dingell (D-Dearborn). Southwest Detroit, Romulus, Inkster, and parts of Dearborn and Dearborn Heights. 63.5% Obama. Safe D.
4th District (red): Open. Northwestern Wayne County and Farmington Hills. 55.7% Obama. Lean D.
5th District (gold): Open. Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti, southwestern Wayne County, and all of Monroe County. 65.9% Obama. Safe D.
6th District (teal): Tim Walberg (R-Tipton). Ann Arbor suburbs and Jackson. 52.5% Obama. Tossup.
7th District (dark gray): Open. Howell, Novi, and Springfield. 53.8% McCain. As I mentioned last week, accidental congressman Kerry Bentivolio (R-Milford) lives here. But with an open seat in a red district this time, Bentivolio would be considered the solid favorite rather than a fluke. Safe R.
8th District (slate blue): Mike Bishop (R-Rochester) and Dave Trott (R-Birmingham). Pontiac, Auburn Hills, Birmingham, and Rochester Heights. 53.7% Obama. Tossup.
9th District (cyan): Sander Levin (D-Royal Oak) and/or Brenda Lawrence (D-Southfield). troy, Royal Oak, Southfield, Ferndale, and southwestern Macomb County. 67.4% Obama. Levin and Lawrence are once again forced into the same district. This time around, though, neither representative has a geographical advantage. Half of this district is from the current 9th (Levin's) and the other half is from the current 14th (Lawrence's). I'm guessing that Levin would run in the new 10th, since all of that territory comes from his current district. Safe D no matter who's in the general election.
10th District (deep pink): Probably Levin. Sterling Heights, Warren, Roseville, and Eastpointe. 56.2% Obama. Safe D with Levin, Lean D without Levin.
11th District (chartreuse): Open. The rest of Macomb County up to Port Huron. 50.1% McCain. Lean R.
12th District (cornflower blue): He of the multiple vowels, John Moolenaar (R-Midland). Midland, Bay City, and "The Thumb". Narrow Obama-plurality district. Tossup.
13th District (dark salmon): Dan Kildee (D-Flint). All of Genesee County (Flint) and a bit of Lapeer County. 65% Obama. Safe D.
14th District (olive): Open. Saginaw, Alma, and the northern Lansing suburbs. 53.9% Obama. I really should have put Saginaw with Midland and Bay City to create a COI district, but that would have resulted in a really weird 12th district going from the Thumb to the Lansing suburbs. Tossup.
15th District (dark orange): Open. Lansing and its immediate eastern and western suburbs. 60% Obama. Safe D.
16th District (lime): Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph). St. Joseph to Battle Creek. 51.4% Obama. Tossup.
17th District (dark slate blue): Open. Kalamazoo and Portage. 54.7% Obama. Tossup.
18th District (yellow): Open. Grand Rapids. 53.8% Obama. Tossup.
19th District (yellow green): Bill Huizenga (R-Zeeland) and Justin Amash (R-Cascade Twp). Grand Rapids suburbs, Holland, and Grand Haven. 61.2% McCain. Safe R no matter who gets the nomination.
20th District (pink): Open. Muskegon, Ludington, and Mount Pleasant. 56.4% Obama. Lean D.
21st District (maroon): Open. Traverse City and Cadillac. 50% McCain. Lean R.
22d District (sienna): Dan Benishek (R-Crystal Falls). Alpena and the U.P. 50.8% Obama. Lean R.
Under this map, Democrats start out with a 10-5 advantage. The seven swing districts guarantee that the best Republicans can do is 12-10.
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, GA, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 127
Lean D: 70
Tossup: 32
Lean R: 8
Safe R: 137
Total: 197 D, 32 Toss, 145 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 122 (added MI-1, MI-2, MI-3, MI-5, MI-9, MI-13, MI-15)
Lean D: 42 (added MI-4, MI-10, MI-20)
Tossup: 52 (added MI-6, MI-8, MI-12, MI-14, MI-16, MI-17, MI-18)
Lean R: 14 (added MI-11, MI-21, MI-22)
Safe R: 144 (added MI-7, MI-19)
Total: 164 D, 52 Toss, 158 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, GA, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), MA (16), MD (15), ME (4), NJ (21), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3), WA (17) = 109
Lean D: IA (9), ME (1), MI (24), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), NV (8), VA (20), WI (14) = 103
Tossup: CO (13), GA (23), MO (15), NC (23), NE (1) = 75
Lean R: AZ (16), IN (16), MT (4), SC (12) = 48
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), TN (16), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 125
Total: 212 D, 75 Toss, 173 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), MA (16), MD (15), ME (4), NJ (21), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3), WA (17) = 109
Lean D: ME (1), MI (24), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), WI (14) = 66
Tossup: CO (13), IA (9), MO (15), NC (23), NV (8), VA (20) = 88
Lean R: AZ (16), GA (23), IN (16), MT (4), NE (1), SC (12) = 72
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), TN (16), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 125
Total: 175 D, 88 Toss, 197 R