I'm skeptical of putting too much into polls so early out, largely because you can never predict events that actually happen in campaigns much closer to the election and shape the results. But, in an insurgent, grassroots campaign, this is worth paying attention to.
From Quinnipiac University poll just out this morning:
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is gaining ground on former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Iowa Democratic Caucus and now trails the front-runner 52–33 percent among likely Democratic Caucus participants, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Vice President Joseph Biden has 7 percent. This compares to a 60–15 percent Clinton lead over Sanders in a May 7 survey of likely Democratic caucus-goers by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. [emphasis added]
The horse race per se is not as interesting, in my view, as the more than doubling of support in such a short time as Sanders' campaign has hit the ground.
More:
“Secretary Hillary Clinton should not be biting her fingernails over her situation in the Iowa caucus, but her lead is slipping and Sen. Bernie Sanders is making progress against her. Her 52 percent score among likely caucus-goers is still OK, but this is the first time she has been below 60 percent in Quinnipiac University’s Iowa survey,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
“But Sen. Sanders has more than doubled his showing and at 33 percent he certainly can’t be ignored, especially with seven months until the actual voting. Iowa Democratic caucus-goers are generally considered more liberal than primary voters in most other states, a demographic that helps his insurgency against Secretary Clinton who is the choice of virtually the entire Democratic establishment.[emphasis added]
So, I agree that the "presumed front-runner" still shows a strong lead. But, the momentum and enthusiasm is with Sanders, at least in Iowa, and certainly in other locations.
I've said in other places one cannot underestimate the challenge Bernie faces in putting together a national campaign and collecting enough delegates to win the nomination--it's a slog.
I also think it's telling, and accurate, that the analysis says the "presumed front-runner" is "the choice of virtually the entire Democratic establishment."
Where would you rather be?