OK, so it's not as dramatic (yet) as Iowa or New Hampshire, but I found two polls conducted four months apart by the The University of Texas/Texas Tribune, that do show Bernie gaining some momentum here in the Lone Star State.
The first poll was conducted back in February:
Hillary Clinton - 62%
Elizabeth Warren - 12%
Joe Biden - 6%
Bernie Sanders - 5%
Jim Webb - 1%
Martin O'Malley - 1%
No Opinion - 14%
Internet survey of 1,200 registered voters
Conducted Feb. 6 to Feb. 15, 2015
Overall margin of error - 2.83 percentage points.
Among registered voters in Republican primary races, the margin of error is 4.19 percent; in Democratic primary races, it is 4.89 percent.
Back then, Elizabeth Warren had said she wasn't running (and still isn't) and her support would probably go to Bernie, so between the two of them that's 17%. Even Hillary hadn't announced yet, although it was presumed that she would, and at the time it looked like she might be the only Democrat running.
Jump over that orange thing that looks like it has a "C" on the left (for "Change") and a "P" on the right (for "Polls") to see what's happened since then.
In late March, Bernie took a four-state swing through CA, NV, TX and IL to test the waters before deciding whether or not to run for president. He was here in Austin at the end of March/beginning of April and appeared on The Ed Show while he was here.
The previous night, March 31, Bernie had held a town hall meeting. They were hoping to get a couple of hundred people to attend. Six hundred people showed up.
The Austin American-Statesman provided some pretty extensive coverage of his visit. Seriously - this is awesome coverage and much of it is in Bernie's own words. It also has links to other articles which provide a wealth of information about Bernie. I think local coverage often does a better job in providing insight than the MSM does.
Judging by his reception in Austin, Sanders will be running for president. And, for a number of reasons I’ll explain as we go along, I think Sanders could prove a problem for Hillary Clinton, especially in the early going.
In Austin, Sanders packed them in by the hundreds at a Town Meeting at the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers hall on Ben White on Tuesday night. It was an ebullient crowd of union members and a virtual who’s who of progressive Austin politics. He was introduced by Jim Hightower.
And then, the next night, he sold out the Travis County Democratic Party’s annual Johnson-Bentsen-Richards Dinner at the Four Seasons Hotel.
The reporter also noted this about Bernie's campaigning style:
He doesn’t care about any of the gossipy, horse race, process kind of questions that dominate political coverage, and he makes you embarrassed you asked those questions. All he wants to talk about is what he wants to talk about – income inequality and the “grotesque and obscene” concentration of wealth and income in America. Voters – Democratic primary and caucus voters at any rate – will like that and it will keep him from being embroiled in the petty corruptions and distractions of hour-by-hour press coverage.
Bernie also gave a Q&A interview to the
Austin Chronicle, as well as the
Texas Observer which reported
Outside, his communications director, a silver-haired former Chicago newspaperman who dimly recalls his last trip to Texas some decades ago, marvels at the previous day’s turnout: He calls it a “field of dreams” moment.
Inside, Sanders, with a mishmash accent that’s part Brooklyn and part New England, speaks in front of a giant Texas flag. “The biggest problem this country faces,” he tells the crowd, “is that we don’t talk about our serious problems.”
In addition, Bernie did a taping of
Overheard with Evan Smith on the local PBS station here. I found some clips from that show.
After the taping there was an audience Q&A. This is 23 minutes of Bernie at his best. He's thoughtful and at times funny.
Some of the questions he was asked included:
How do you balance our need for economic growth with climate change issues?
Is it wrong to use religious faith as your guide?
What's your impression of Ted Cruz?
Do drone strikes cause more problems than they solve?
Is the War on Terror fueling itself?
How do we combat negative media coverage of liberal social issues?
How do you plan to win Texas?
(That was the last question asked before he had to leave for the airport. Listen to his answer. It makes a lot of sense.) I guarantee - if you're a Bernie supporter - watch this video. I did and it gives me greater hope that he really can win.
Since his last visit to Austin, here's what's continued to happen.
May 26 - Bernie announces his run for president.
May 31 - Bernie holds a rally in Minneapolis where over 3,000 attended.
So now we get to the second poll which was conducted in June:
Hillary Clinton - 53%
Bernie Sanders - 15%
Joe Biden - 8%
Elizabeth Warren - 8%
Andrew Cuomo - 1%
Jim Webb - 1%
Martin O'Malley - 1%
Lincoln Chafee - 1%
No Opinion - 12%
Internet survey of 1,200 registered voters
Conducted June 6 to June 15, 2015
Overall margin of error is 2.83 percentage points.
Among registered voters in Republican primary races, the margin of error is 4.37 percentage points; in Democratic primary races, it is 4.58 percentage points.
Clinton was down 9 points, Sanders was up 10 points, while Sanders/Warren together was up 6 points to 23%.
In the article about the June poll: (emphasis mine)
“Hillary Clinton is still an almost prohibitive favorite, but with Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden in the news for different reasons and with the primaries getting closer, we see a little bit of movement,” [Jim] Henson [co-director of the poll and head of the Texas Politics Project at UT-Austin] said. “I wouldn’t say it’s anything for Clinton to worry about.”
Even if the support for all other candidates is combined, Shaw said, Clinton still holds a strong hand. “It would take a bunch of stuff to happen to beat her,” he said. One of the other candidates would have to become a “credible alternative,” he said, and Clinton would have to run into trouble.
While I won't go so far as to suggest Clinton is in trouble, I
do think more and more people
are starting to see Bernie as a "credible alternative."
And "stuff" has been happening since the last poll was taken.
June 20 - Bernie's Denver rally attracts 5,500
July 1 - Bernie's Madison rally attracts 10,000.
July 3 - Bernie's Council Bluffs, IA rally attracts 2,600.
I'm hoping for a big turnout in Portland, ME tonight.
These UT/TT polls are done about every four months. The previous three have been in Oct. 2014, Feb. 2015, and June 2015. I'm guessing the next one will be in early October. By then, hopefully we'll have had a couple of debates (fingers crossed) and more people will know about Bernie, so I'll be interested to see if his popularity continues to rise here in the Texas, and if it does, I'll hope he'll consider a second trip to Austin. Like Madison, we're a state capitol, a college town, and very liberal. And we're a lot bigger. And within easy driving distance of San Antonio, and within reasonable driving distance from Houston and Dallas/Fort Worth.
I know it's just one small poll, but it does give me hope, and I hope the information in the clips and the Austin American-Statesman will provide useful insight and info you can use when talking to other people about Bernie - no matter which state you live in.