Republican Rep. Joe Heck
On Monday, Rep. Joe Heck
kicked off his long-awaited Senate campaign. National Republicans
worked hard to recruit the once-reluctant Heck, who initially showed no interest in giving up his secure House district for a risky statewide bid. Team Red quickly closed ranks behind Heck once it became clear that popular Gov. Brian Sandoval would not run for this seat, and he's unlikely to face any credible primary opposition. The Democrats are fielding ex-state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, who also should have little intra-party opposition.
Heck is a tough candidate who has easily held a swingy House seat in the last two elections, and he's worked hard to cultivate a moderate reputation. Any Republican looking to win the Silver State in a presidential year will need to win over a good share of Hispanic voters, and both parties think Heck has the chance to do it. However, Heck knows that Masto won't make it easy: If she wins, she'll be the nation's first Latina senator, and she has retiring Sen. Harry Reid's powerful political machine at her back.
Nevada gave President Obama solid victories in the last two presidential races, and Team Blue has a good chance to carry the state's six electoral votes again. But Heck has proven that he can run ahead of his party before, and neither side is taking this seat for granted. If Heck can continue to do well in his swingy Las Vegas-area seat and carry Reno's Washoe County, he has a good chance to win regardless of what happens at the top of the ticket. Indeed, this strategy gave Republican Sen. Dean Heller a narrow 46-45 victory (albeit against a weakened opponent) in 2012 even as Obama was taking Nevada 52-46. Democrats need to hold onto this seat if they want to retake the Senate next year, and we're in for a long, tough battle.