Fresh from 4th of July vacation, it's time to get back back to work.
Previous states, in publishing order: ND/SD, AK/DE/ME/NH, HI/ID/NE, WV/NM/NV, UT/KS/WV, MS/IA, CT/OK/OR, KY, SC, LA, AL, CO, MN, WI, MD, MO, TN, AZ, IN, MA, WA, VA, NJ, NC, GA, MI (Part I), MI (Part II), OH (Part I), OH (Part II)
As in the case of all states heavily gerrymandered by Republicans, I start with the Democratic alternative. Pennsylvania is obviously no exception when it comes to gerrymandering.
1st District (blue): Open. Erie, Warren, and Mercer. 53.6% Obama. Former rep Kathy Dahlkemper (D-Erie) could get her seat back, if she wanted. Lean D with Dahlkemper, Tossup without Dahlkemper.
2d District (green): Keith Rothfus (R-Sewickley). Hermitage, New Castle, Beaver, and a tentacle into Pittsburgh. 51% Obama. Tossup.
3d District (purple): Mike Kelly (R-Butler). Franklin, Butler, and the north Pittsburgh suburbs. 59.9% McCain. Safe R.
4th District (red): Mike Doyle (D-Forest Hills) and/or Tim Murphy (R-Upper St. Clair). South and east Pittsburgh suburbs. 53% Obama. Doyle has a tough decision. If he stays here, there's a better than 50% chance that he would take out a sitting Republican... but a real chance that he would lose if the presidential race in this state is closer than expected. If Doyle moves to a safer district, Murphy would become a slight favorite to keep his seat. For the stats below, we'll just say that Doyle stays here and wins. Lean D with Doyle, Tossup without Doyle.
5th District (gold): Open. Pittsburgh and Washington. 62.4% Obama. This would be Doyle's alternate option, if necessary. Safe D.
6th District (teal): Open. Starts in Pittsburgh, then wraps around to Uniontown and Youngwood. 55.6% Obama. Lean D.
7th District (dark gray): Open. Greensburg, Indiana, Kittanning, Clarion, and Tionesta. 58.1% McCain. Safe R.
8th District (slate blue): Open. Bedford, Somerset, Johnstown, Clearfield, and Punxsutawney. 58.2% McCain. Safe R.
9th District (cyan): Bill Shuster (R-Hollidaysburg). Altoona, Lewistown, Chambersburg, and Shippensburg. 63.7% McCain, the reddest district in the Keystone State. Safe R.
10th District (deep pink): Scott Perry (R-Carroll Twp). Carlisle, Mechanicsburg, and Gettysburg. 58.5% McCain. Safe R.
11th District (chartreuse): Open. Baconmander of Harrisburg, York, and Lancaster. 58.8% Obama. Safe D.
12th District (cornflower blue): Open. Suburbs of York and Lancaster. 63% McCain. Safe R.
13th District (dark salmon): Open. Harrisburg suburbs, Hershey, Lebanon, and Milton. 57% McCain. Safe R.
14th District (olive): Tom Marino (R-Williamsport) and G.T. Thompson (R-Howard). State College, Williamsport, and Bradford. 52.3% McCain. No idea who would win the Republican primary, but Safe R regardless.
15th District (dark orange): Open. Bloomsburg up to the New York border. 55.3% McCain. Safe R.
16th District (lime): Matthew Cartwright (D-Moosic). Scranton, East Stroudsburg, and the Poconos. 59.1% Obama. Safe D.
17th District (dark slate blue): Xenophobe Lou Barletta (R-Hazleton). Wilkes-Barre, Hazleton, and Pottsville. 51.9% Obama. Barletta might be out of a job, allowing him to spend the rest of his life telling undocumented residents to get off his lawn. Tossup.
18th District (yellow): Open. Allentown and Bethlehem. 57.9% Obama. Although Charlie Dent (R-Allentown) lives here, he wouldn't run here. Safe D.
19th District (yellow green): Dent. Allentown/Bethlehem suburbs down to the Trenton suburbs. 52.8% Obama. Still pretty unfavorable territory for Dent, but he's survived close elections before. Tossup.
20th District (pink): Open. Levittown, Bensalem, and northeast Philadelphia. 54.4% Obama. Lean D.
21st District (maroon): Open. Reading and Franconia. 53.2% Obama. Tossup.
22d District (sienna): Open. Lightning bolt-shaped district that includes Pottstown, Norristown, King of Prussia, and Hatboro. 57.8% Obama. Safe D.
23d District (aquamarine): Brendan Boyle (D-Philadelphia). Northeast Philadelphia, Abington, and Merion Station. 64.7% Obama. Safe D.
24th District (indigo): Bob Brady (D-Philadelphia). West Philadelphia and downtown. 90.6% Obama. 53.3% Black. Brady will almost certainly be subject to a Democratic primary if he runs here. His only other options are to primary Boyle in the 23d or try to get the nomination in the 26th. Safe D no matter what.
25th District (pale violet red): Chaka Fattah (D-Philadelphia). North central Philadelphia to downtown. 88.2% Obama. 70.5% Black/Hispanic majority. Safe D.
26th District (gray): Open or Brady. South Philadelphia to Chester. 85.2% Obama. 56.3% Black. Safe D with or without Brady.
27th District (spring green): Ryan Costello (R-West Chester) and/or Pat Meehan (R-Drexel Hill). West Chester, Springfield, Drexel Hill, Marple, and Havertown. 54.8% Obama. No matter which Republican wins the primary, there will be a huge target on his back in November. Tossup.
28th District (plum): Joe Pitts (R-Kennett Square). Chester County without West Chester. 53.6% Obama. Pitts would be another Republican incumbent possibly in the unemployment line by January 2017. Tossup.
30 Electoral Votes: This is one of those states that Republican presidential candidates think they have a chance to win every year, but almost always lose. Every psephologist in America might call this a Tossup for 2016, but I won't because it's not. Lean D.
An alternate map cleans up the borders of all of the districts surrounding Pittsburgh and Harrisburg.
Districts 1, 8, and 14-28 are unchanged.
2d District (green): Rothfus. The tentacle through central Pittsburgh changes into western suburbs. 50.6% McCain. Lean R.
3d District (purple): Kelly. Less of northern Alleghany County. We also take Armstrong, Clarion, and Forest Counties from the 7th District. 61.4% McCain. Safe R.
4th District (red): Doyle. Some moderate southern Pittsburgh suburbs are replaced with some liberal eastern Pittsburgh suburbs. 57.5% Obama. Safe D.
5th District (gold): Open. Central Pittsburgh. 66.7% Obama. Safe D.
6th District (teal): Murphy. Now consists of all of Washington, Greene, and Fayette Counties. To even out the population, I threw in Upper St. Clair and a couple of other moderate Pittsburgh precincts so that Murphy could run in a district without a popular Democratic incumbent. 51.7% McCain. Lean R.
7th District (dark gray): Open. All of Westmoreland County, extreme northeastern Alleghany County, and half of Indiana County. 56.3% McCain. Safe R.
9th District (cyan): Shuster. Replaces half of Perry County with more of Cumberland County. 62.7% McCain. Safe R.
10th District (deep pink): Perry. Downtown Harrisburg, Mechanicsburg, and Gettysburg. 50.3% McCain. Lean R.
11th District (chartreuse): Open. York only. 55.6% McCain. Safe R.
12th District (cornflower blue): Open. Lancaster only. 55.1% McCain. Safe R.
13th District (dark salmon): Open. Less of Harrisburg, but takes in the rest of Perry County shed by the 9th District. 59.2% McCain. Safe R.
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, GA, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 144 (added PA-5, PA-11, PA-16, PA-18, PA-22, PA-23, PA-24, PA-25, PA-26)
Lean D: 80 (added PA-1, PA-4, PA-6, PA-20)
Tossup: 42 (added PA-2, PA-17, PA-19, PA-21, PA-27, PA-28)
Lean R: 8
Safe R: 153 (added PA-3, PA-7, PA-8, PA-9, PA-10, PA-12, PA-13, PA-14, PA-15)
Total: 224 D, 42 Toss, 161 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 138 (added PA-4, PA-5, PA-16, PA-18, PA-22, PA-23, PA-24, PA-25, PA-26)
Lean D: 47 (added PA-20)
Tossup: 63 (added PA-1, PA-17, PA-19, PA-21, PA-27, PA-28)
Lean R: 17 (added PA-2, PA-6, PA-10)
Safe R: 162 (added PA-3, PA-7, PA-8, PA-9, PA-11, PA-12, PA-13, PA-14, PA-15)
Total: 185 D, 63 Toss, 179 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, GA, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), MA (16), MD (15), ME (4), NJ (21), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3), WA (17) = 109
Lean D: IA (9), ME (1), MI (24), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), NV (8), PA (30), VA (20), WI (14) = 133
Tossup: CO (13), GA (23), MO (15), NC (23), NE (1), OH (27) = 102
Lean R: AZ (16), IN (16), MT (4), SC (12) = 48
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), TN (16), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 125
Total: 242 D, 102 Toss, 173 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), MA (16), MD (15), ME (4), NJ (21), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3), WA (17) = 109
Lean D: ME (1), MI (24), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), PA (30), WI (14) = 96
Tossup: CO (13), IA (9), MO (15), NC (23), NV (8), OH (27), VA (20) = 115
Lean R: AZ (16), GA (23), IN (16), MT (4), NE (1), SC (12) = 72
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), TN (16), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 125
Total: 205 D, 115 Toss, 197 R