Florida Rep. David Jolly (R)
It's funny: After all that effort Democrats expended last year to turn Florida's 13th District blue, it looks like a late round of court-ordered redistricting will finally do the trick instead. According to a spokesman, GOP Rep. David Jolly, who narrowly won a hotly contested special election to the House just over a year ago, is "
seriously considering" a bid for Senate and will announce his decision "early next week."
All signs point to a Jolly run, as Republicans flagrantly gerrymandered the 13th to excise the southeastern quadrant of the city St. Petersburg—you can see it here clear as day—that's predominantly African American and therefore heavily Democratic. In a new ruling, Florida's Supreme Court made it clear that that kind of chicanery won't fly and has demanded a redraw. If that missing portion of St. Pete were re-united with the rest of the city, a hypothetical new district drawn by Matthew Isbel shows that Barack Obama would have won 54 percent of the vote, a sizable bump from the 50 percent he took under the current lines.
What's more, with ex-Gov. Charlie Crist weighing another comeback bid, Jolly would potentially be facing some heavy-duty opposition. Crist carried the existing 13th by a 50-43 margin, according to Daily Kos Elections' preliminary calculations, even as he lost 48-47 statewide, and that missing chunk of south St. Petersburg—where Crist actually lives—went for him by an astounding 81-16 spread.
Crist still isn't a sure bet to run, but facing a multi-pronged threat to his continued congressional career, you can see why Jolly is searching for an escape hatch. But the confines of a GOP Senate primary won't be very friendly either. Jolly's a relative moderate who, after all, won a blue district. If he does seek a promotion, he'll be facing off against the likes of fellow Rep. Ron DeSantis, the Club for Growth's golden boy, and Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, who seems like your typical anodyne Republican the establishment could easily love.
Jolly's best chance would involved a crowded primary fight that he can win with a narrow plurality. But in this scenario, like a team two games out of first place hoping to make the playoffs in the final week of the season, Jolly wouldn't control his own destiny. In politics, just like in real life, sometimes your fate is simply out of your hands.