Nevada Senate Democratic candidate Catherine Cortez Masto
So this is how it goes now: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce releases a poll from Fabrizio Lee showing a swing-state Republican up by double digits while the Senate Majority PAC responds with a PPP survey finding the Democrat ahead by one point. We saw this recently
in New Hampshire, and now we're seeing it again in Nevada, where PPP has former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto
edging Rep. Joe Heck 42-41; Fabrizio
had Heck ahead 50-36.
Jon Ralston, who is nobody's partisan, called PPP's poll "much more credible" than the Chamber's, saying the latter's had "questionable demographics." Ralston also says that he asked the Chamber for more information about its poll but was refused.
One thing to note as well is that PPP included presidential numbers (Fabrizio didn't), finding Hillary Clinton up anywhere from 48-43 (on Marco Rubio) to 49-37 (on Jeb Bush). For swingy Nevada, that's pretty good, and if it holds—as it should—it means Republicans will have to go hunting for Clinton-Heck voters. That's not impossible, as Dean Heller showed three years ago, but he was an appointed incumbent running against a flawed opponent and still only escaped with a 1-point victory. As demographic change marches on, the GOP's margin for just keeps error shrinking.
And that's why the Chamber is already running a bland positive spot on Heck's behalf that emphasizes his "bipartisan" achievements and stresses his military and medical background (Heck's a physician and, as of last year, a brigadier general in the Army Reserve). They're spending a decent $350,000, but that's just the first drop in what will eventually be a Yucca Mountain-sized bucket of ad spending in the Silver State next year.
The Chamber can well afford it, of course, and they can also afford to turn their attention to the general election without worrying they'll define Heck as a squish to GOP primary voters. That's because the entire establishment is rallying around his candidacy, with all three of Heck's Republican colleagues on the Hill endorsing him: Heller, plus Reps. Mark Amodei and Cresent Hardy. It would take a mighty tea party effort to stop Heck at this point, and with the Club for Growth generally behaving much more pragmatically than they used to a decade ago, it's unlikely we'll see one.