We're on the final five states of this intriguing DK series. Three dark blue states, one purple state, and one purple-trending state. Are you excited yet?
Previous states, in publishing order: ND/SD, AK/DE/ME/NH, HI/ID/NE, WV/NM/NV, UT/KS/WV, MS/IA, CT/OK/OR, KY, SC, LA, AL, CO, MN, WI, MD, MO, TN, AZ, IN, MA, WA, VA, NJ, NC, GA, MI (Part I), MI (Part II), OH (Part I), OH (Part II), PA
We know that, with egregious baconmanders originating in Chicago, it's possible to turn every Illinois district into a Safe D district. Rather than bore you with that map, I will do a map with minimal gerrymanders that would still please the Democratic-leg state legislature. Of course, Rauner would veto any map that looks like this, but he can go fuck himself with a bundle of rose stems.
1st District (blue): Robin Kelly (D-Matteson). Southern Cook County and northeastern Will County. Basically, the southern Chicago exurbs. 78.5% Obama. 50.1% Black. Safe D, and it will remain so if Kelly decides to jump into the 2016 U.S. Senate race.
2d District (green): Bobby Rush (D-Chicago). Southern Chicago suburbs such as Blue Island, Evergreen Park, and Dolton. This district is of great importance to me personally, as my father and uncle live in Blue Island. 83.6% Obama. 55% Black. Safe D.
3d District (purple): Open. Downtown Chicago and the lakeshore. 96.7% Obama, the bluest district in Illinois and America. 80.6% Black, which means that there would probably be a lawsuit accusing me of packing. As I've said before, this is all just fantasy. Safe D.
4th District (red): Dan Lipinski (D-Western Springs). Southwestern Cook County communities such as Burbank, Oak Lawn, and Summit. 62.5% Obama. Undoubtedly, the conservative Lipinski will get at least one liberal primary challenger. Chances are pretty good that the contender on top will not be Lipinski. Safe D.
5th District (gold): Open. Downtown Chicago, Cicero, and Berwyn. 80.1% Obama. 65.6% Hispanic. I've undone that infamous "earmuffs" gerrymander and made two reasonably shaped districts out of it. This, the southern "earmuff", is majority Mexican. The northern "earmuff" is majority Puerto Rican. Absolutely no reason why Mexicans and Puerto Ricans should be packed into the same district. Safe D.
6th District (teal): Danny Davis (D-Chicago). The inside of the old "earmuffs". Downtown Chicago, Oak Park, and Bellwood. 87.3% Obama. 51.1% Black. Safe D.
7th District (dark gray): Luis Gutierrez (D-Chicago). Elmwood Park and Melrose Park. The northern "earmuff". 80.4% Obama. 58.1% Hispanic. Since Gutierrez is of Puerto Rican descent, he would run here. Safe D.
8th District (slate blue): Mike Quigley (D-Chicago). Nothern Chicago. 80.6% Obama. With this being the only white-majority district within Chicago's city limits, Quigley would definitely run here. Safe D.
9th District (cyan): Jan Schakowsky (D-Evanston) and Bob Dold! (R-Kenilworth). Evanston and Skokie. 67.8% Obama. Schakowsky stays in Congress and Dold goes back to the unemployment line. Safe D.
10th District (deep pink): Open. Schaumburg, Arlington Heights, and Palatine. 59.6% Obama. This would have been Tammy Duckworth's district, but this will now go to her anointed successor. Safe D.
11th District (chartreuse): Open. North Chicago, Park Ridge, Northbrook, and Libertyville. 62.2% Obama. I drew this district especially for Brad Schneider (D-Deerfield). Safe D.
12th District (cornflower blue): Open. Waukegan, Highland Park, Gurnee, and Vernon Hills. 61.4% Obama. You guessed it! This one is also Safe D.
13th District (dark salmon): Open. Zion, McHenry, and Woodstock. 53.1% Obama. Tossup.
14th District (olive): Open. Elgin, Carpenterville, Batavia, and DeKalb. 53.4% Obama. Tossup.
15th District (dark orange): Randy Hultgren (R-Winfield). West Chicago, Streamwood, Carol Stream, and Bloomingdale. 56.2% Obama. Hultgren would want nothing to do with this district. He could try one of the surrounding tossup districts or just retire. Former representative Melissa Bean (D-Barrington) could run here, if she wanted. Lean D.
16th District (lime): Peter Roskam (R-Wheaton). Wheaton, Glen Ellyn, Lisle, Downers Grove, and Elmhurst. 53.3% Obama. If you really felt froggy, you could sacrifice one of the surrounding districts and shore up this one as a middle finger to Roskam for slandering Tammy Duckworth back in 2006. Tossup.
17th District (dark slate blue): Bill Foster (D-Naperville). Naperville, Bolingbrook, and Orland Park. 54.1% Obama. Lean D.
18th District (yellow): Open or Adam Kinzinger (R-Channahon). Joliet. 54.8% Obama. I suspect that Kinzinger would rather move a couple of miles across the border to a redder district that try to win this pale-blue district. The rising conservative star would probably crash and burn here. Tossup.
19th District (yellow green): Open or Kinzinger. Morris, Kankakee, Danville, Charleston, and Mattoon. 51.6% McCain. Kinzinger would have no trouble winning here. Safe R with Kinzinger, Lean R without Kinzinger.
20th District (pink): Open. Aurora, LaSalle, and Dixon. 56.4% Obama. Lean D.
21st District (maroon): Open. Rockford, Freeport, and Belvidere. 53.3% Obama. Tossup.
22d District (sienna): Cheri Bustos (D-East Moline). Mississippi River district. Quincy and the Moline-Rock Island area. 53.9% Obama. Bustos has won a couple of tough elections already, so she should be OK here. Lean D.
23d District (aquamarine): Open. Bloomington, Normal, Pekin, Peoria, and Galesburg. 56.7% Obama. Lean D.
24th District (indigo): Darin LaHood (R-Dunlap). All of the suburbs of Peoria, Bloomington, Normal, Champaign, Urbana, and Springfield. These areas really don't belong together, but screw it. We're doing it anyway. 57.8% McCain. Safe R.
25th District (pale violet red): Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville). I-72 corridor. Springfield, Decatur, Champaign, and Urbana. 55% Obama. Davis will likely become another very unhappy and very fired Republican. Lean D.
26th District (gray): John Shimkus (R-Collinsville). The St. Louis suburbs of Alton, Granite City, Collinsville, and Edwardsville. This district stretches north to Jacksonville. 52% Obama. Shimkus is too conservative and too contentious for this district, so he may be out of there. Tossup.
27th District (spring green): Open. East St. Louis, Belleville, Waterloo, Du Quoin, and Salem. 54.6% Obama. Could be a good return opportunity for Bill Enyart (D-Belleville). Lean D with Enyart, Tossup without Enyart.
28th District (plum): Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro). Rural southern and southeastern Illinois. 54.4% McCain. Safe R.
30 Electoral Votes: Safe D.
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, GA, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 172 (added all 28 Illinois districts)
Lean D: 80
Tossup: 42
Lean R: 8
Safe R: 153
Total: 252 D, 42 Toss, 161 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 150 (added IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-6, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IL-10, IL-11, IL-12)
Lean D: 53 (added IL-15, IL-17, IL-20, IL-22, IL-23, IL-25)
Tossup: 70 (added IL-13, IL-14, IL-16, IL-18, IL-21, IL-26, IL-27)
Lean R: 17
Safe R: 165 (added IL-19, IL-24, IL-28)
Total: 203 D, 70 Toss, 182 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, GA, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), IL (30), MA (16), MD (15), ME (4), NJ (21), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3), WA (17) = 139
Lean D: IA (9), ME (1), MI (24), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), NV (8), PA (30), VA (20), WI (14) = 133
Tossup: CO (13), GA (23), MO (15), NC (23), NE (1), OH (27) = 102
Lean R: AZ (16), IN (16), MT (4), SC (12) = 48
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), TN (16), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 125
Total: 272 D, 102 Toss, 173 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), IL (30), MA (16), MD (15), ME (4), NJ (21), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3), WA (17) = 139
Lean D: ME (1), MI (24), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), PA (30), WI (14) = 96
Tossup: CO (13), IA (9), MO (15), NC (23), NV (8), OH (27), VA (20) = 115
Lean R: AZ (16), GA (23), IN (16), MT (4), NE (1), SC (12) = 72
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), TN (16), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 125
Total: 235 D, 115 Toss, 197 R