Democratic Florida Senate candidate Alan Grayson
Leading Off:
• FL-Sen: Florida Rep. Alan Grayson, who is now running for Senate, has loudly insisted for years that he's the Democratic Party's leading exponent of what it means to be a true progressive. So it comes as quite a shock to see him articulate views about taxation that don't sound progressive at all:
He's pledged to make income inequality and other progressive priorities a focus of his bid. And Grayson told NBC he'd like to make eliminating the income tax for the poorest Americans a key priority. But he seemed more reluctant to tackle the tax rate for top income-earners like himself.
"One way that you could try to address [income inequality] is through the tax system, but that doesn't necessarily mean that you tax people who make more money more," he said.
"At the top end, it's a complicated situation," he added. "I can tell you, in fact, there are repercussions and second order effects that come from modifying the tax rates at the top."
For starters, it's not clear how you'd compensate for the lost revenue of eliminating income taxes for lower earners without raising taxes on the rich, nor is Grayson saying how he'd do so. So either we're talking about crazy deficit-busting economics of the Republican variety, or a magic trick.
But the truly bizarre part of Grayson's statement comes at the close. Raising taxes on the wealthy has long been a key plank of the progressive platform, and it's both good politics—huge majorities support the idea—and good policy, as it would raise revenues and help mitigate the America's extreme inequalities in wealth.
Head below the fold for more.
What's really disturbing is Grayson's attempt to explain away why he's so reluctant to tax the rich more. He tries to hide behind lawyerly argle-bargle like "repercussions and second-order effects," but the only "second-order effect" of Bill Clinton's tax hikes on the wealthy back in the 1990s was to drive down unemployment, raise wages, eliminate the federal budget deficit, and create the greatest economic boom this country had seen in decades.
And as Stephen Wolf reminds us, top federal income tax exceeded 90 percent following World War II, when the country experienced a massive explosion in prosperity and a surge in middle-class incomes and standards of living that we still marvel at today.
Grayson may claim it's all "complicated," but the truth is, it's anything but. With his $30 million in personal wealth and the hedge funds he runs in the Cayman Islands, he may be more familiar with what it's like to live at the very top tax bracket than the rest of us. Yet Grayson has been very explicit—and very self-assured—in tying himself to the woman most progressives identify as the movement's top standard-bearer:
"This is the 'it' campaign of 2016. Just as Elizabeth Warren's campaign was the 'it' campaign in her race. It's going to be famous," Grayson said. "What people see of us doing in this race is going to live until the end of time. This is going to be the first race, the first real political race of the 21st century."
But Warren
supports increased taxes on the rich. So if Grayson wants to insist we shouldn't tax the wealthiest among us more, then he shouldn't try claiming the mantle of Elizabeth Warren, and of progressivism in general.
Senate:
• NV-Sen: On behalf of a right-wing outlet called the One America News Network (created as an alternative to Fox News by the wealthy Herring family, whose chieftain thinks there are too many TV channels that "skew left"), Gravis Marketing finds GOP Rep. Joe Heck beating his Democratic opponent for Harry Reid's Senate seat, former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, by a huge 49-35 margin. They're the second conservative pollster to cough up results like this: Fabrizio Lee recently had Heck ahead 50-36, but PPP put Masto up 42-41.
Of course, Gravis is known for a long series of polling disasters, the most recent being their absurd survey that had Alan Grayson leading Patrick Murphy by a no-freaking-way 63-19 margin in Florida's Democratic primary for Senate. And their client, this OAN, professes itself to be "a credible source for 24/7 national and international news," so you just know they're legit. You always have to be careful not to believe only the polls you want to believe, but in this case, there are good reasons to be very skeptical of both Gravis and Fabrizio.
Gubernatorial:
• IN-Gov: Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction Glenda Ritz, who pulled off an unexpected upset in 2012, had the hallmarks of a legitimate challenger to GOP Gov. Mike Pence, but she only raised $30,000 during the last six months. By contrast, her main Democratic primary rival, 2012 nominee John Gregg brought in $1.76 million during this time, even beating out Pence's own haul.
One problem for Ritz is that she waited too long to actually start fundraising ... but in turns out, she would have been better off waiting a bit longer. That's because Indiana law prohibits anyone running for statewide office from raising money during the legislative session, which ran from Jan. 6 to April 29. As it turns out, about $8,000 of Ritz's take came in during that prohibited window, which is a real problem for multiple reasons.
For starters, violators pay a civil fine worth up to twice the amount they received during the session, plus any extra costs. Ritz's camp claims that this was all a "clerical error," saying she received the donations before the session but only deposited them after. But Bradley King, the state election division's co-director says that doesn't matter. According to King, "The critical moment is when the check or cash is deposited into a bank account."
What's more, according to the Indianapolis Star, Ritz apparently raised $83,000 during the 2013 legislative session, too. If an investigation were to rope those sums in as well and Ritz were to face the full penalty prescribed by the law, it would completely wipe out the $112,000 she has in her campaign account and leave her deep in the hole owing more.
But above all else, none of this makes Ritz look good. In the best-case scenario, she'll skate with that "clerical errors" claim but will still be left at a huge cash disadvantage compared to Greg. In the worse case, her campaign would suffer a terrible black eye over a truly amateurish set of mistakes and be left penniless. Ritz has shown she can defy the odds in the past, but right now, there's a big credibility gap between her and Gregg, and one that looks like it'll only get wider.
• MO-Gov: GOP state Sen. Bob Dixon started floating his name for this post back in May, and he's confirmed that he'll kick off his campaign on Monday. Dixon's decision to run is probably bad news for intra-party rival and fellow state Sen. Mike Parson, who until now was the only credible candidate from southwest Missouri.
And if it seems like this primary is larger-than-normal, it's not your imagination. The University of Minnesota's Smart Politics blog tells us that since primary elections began in Missouri in 1912, there have never been more than six candidates on the GOP's gubernatorial ballot. But seven people have already declared for 2016 (or are about to). Dixon joins Parson, ex-Rep. Randy Asbury, rich guy John Brunner, ex-state House Speaker Catherine Hanaway, retired Navy SEAL Eric Greitens, and Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder. The winner is expected to take on Democratic Attorney General Chris Koster, who has no serious primary opposition.
• VA-Gov: Here are some poll numbers on an election that's over two years away. Enjoy.
House:
• CA-21, 52: Democrats are hoping to unseat Rep. David Valadao in the Central Valley's CA-21, while Republicans are planning to target Scott Peters in the swingy CA-52, located in the San Diego area. But both national parties may need to keep hunting for recruits, since their current contenders just aren't bringing in the type of money they'll need to win.
Over in the 21st, Democratic Fowler Councilor Daniel Parra raised just $24,000 over the last three months, far behind Valadao's $334,000. Obama won this seat 55-44, but Team Blue hasn't had an easy time finding a credible candidate here. Valadao decisively defeated a weak Democratic foe in 2012 and history will likely repeat itself unless Parra either steps it up or Democrats find someone stronger.
Peters pulled off close wins in the 52nd, a seat that Obama carried 52-46. Republicans sounded excited when they landed retired Marine Jacquie Atkinson, but she only raised $40,000 this last quarter. Peters is taking his re-election campaign seriously and he brought in a solid $470,000. The GOP has a decent bench in suburban San Diego, and they may need to turn to another candidate if they're going to give Peters another tough race.
• IL-08: Just call him Raja Kri$hnamoorthi. Krishnamoorthi faces two state senators in the Democratic primary for this Chicagoland seat, but he's completely dominating them in fundraising. Krishnamoorthi brought in $621,000 over the last three months (all from donors), while Tom Cullerton took just $135,000 and Mike Noland only hauled in $85,000. Cullerton does have the support of the well-funded group VoteVets and his ties to labor should give him a boost, but it looks like Krishnamoorthi will be controlling the airwaves here.
• MD-01: If you were hoping that ex-Del. Mike Smigiel's decision to challenge Rep. Andy Harris in the GOP primary would lead to some tasty cat fud, sorry. The libertarian-flavored Smigiel raised a pitiful $10,000, while Harris took in $261,000 last quarter. To be fair, we hear it's tough to make donor calls while you're hiking Mount Doom.
• MN-02: It's not going to be easy for Team Blue to unseat entrenched Republican John Kline in this evenly divided district, but at least both Democratic candidates look like they'll be well-funded. Former health care executive Angie Craig brought in an impressive $327,000 during the last quarter. Physician Mary Lawrence only raised $113,000 from donors but she threw in $500,000 of her own money, giving her a $1,045,000 to $231,000 cash on hand lead over Lawrence. Kline has $563,000 in the bank, though he won't need to spend it in a primary.
• MO-02, WA-01: Each party landed a state representative for a longshot bid against a formidable incumbent, but so far neither challenger is impressing. In Missouri's 2nd District, Democrat Bill Otto raised only $44,000 for his bid against Ann Wagner. Wagner has the luxury of running in a Romney 57-41 seat, but she still brought in $383,000. Wagner is a possible 2018 Senate candidate and Democrats would love it if Otto could at least force her to dip into her $1.9 million warchest, but that's not looking good so far.
Over in Washington's 1st Congressional District, GOP state Rep. Elizabeth Scott hauled in only $24,000 for her campaign against Democratic Rep. Suzan DelBene. Obama won this seat 54-43 and DelBene survived the 2014 Republican wave without much trouble, so we probably won't hear much more from this seat this cycle.
• NC-03: After only defeating Taylor Griffin by 6 points in the 2014 primary, you'd think that GOP Rep. Walter Jones would stockpile his resources to prepare for 2016. But nope: Jones raised just $26,000 over the last three months, and he has only $117,000 in the bank. Griffin recently announced that he'd seek a rematch, and the former Treasury aide should have little trouble raising actual money from GOP establishment figures who loath the unpredictable Jones.
• NY-01: Democrats are looking to beat freshman Republican Lee Zeldin before he can tighten his grip on this swing seat, and they'll need a candidate who can raise enough money to air ads on New York City television. Well, for better or worse, they have two: Suffolk Planning Commissioner David Calone raised a hefty $480,000, while Southampton Town Supervisor Anna Throne-Holst brought in $513,000. Zeldin still took top marks with his $568,000 quarter, and he won't need to spend it on a primary challenge.
• NY-13: Uh, say what? Suzan Johnson Cook, a former Obama administration official and a candidate in the Democratic primary to succeed Charlie Rangel, just gave a presentation on a panel about "religious liberty" at a conference of top anti-LGBT activists organized by megachurch pastor Jim Garlow. As Media Matters' Carlos Maza details, Garlow's promotional website for the conference explains that "our nation is in trouble" because of a lack of "clear proclamation of biblical answers to the messiness of our culture." There are no details on what Cook spoke about, but unless she spent her time lecturing attendees about how they're completely wrong about gay rights, just participating in an event like this should be seen as disqualifying by primary voters, especially in a district as blue as this one.
• TN-04: Former Romney aide Grant Starrett has been raising the big bucks for his primary campaign against scandal-tarred incumbent Scott DesJarlais, but one familiar name can still throw a wretch in his plans. State Sen. Jim Tracy hasn't said much about his 2016 intentions, and he recently told the Daily News Journal that his "focus right now is to run for re-election for the state Senate." But Tracy refused to confirm or deny that he wouldn't challenge DesJarlais next year.
Tracy fell 38 votes short of unseating the incumbent last time, and he could peel off enough anti-DesJarlais votes to cost Starrett the win. It doesn't sound like Tracy's likely to seek a rematch, but Starrett will definitely rest easier once Tracy rules it out once and for all.
Other Races:
• Memphis Mayor: Filing closed Friday for the Oct. 8 non-partisan primary. A multitude of candidates are running (though Shelby County Commission Chairman Justin Ford has dropped out) but the frontrunners look like Mayor A C Wharton and Councilor Jim Strickland. Wharton is vulnerable in large part because of the city's crime rate, and Strickland is likely to have more resources available than any of the mayor's other challengers. If Strickland wins, he will become Memphis' first white mayor since Dick Hackett narrowly lost re-election in 1991.
Grab Bag:
• Fundraising: Daily Kos Elections' massive second quarter House fundraising chart is now available. We have listings for over 200 candidates ranging from longshots to top-tier battles, with plenty of hotly contested primaries thrown in as well. You won't find a more comprehensive—and more succinct—roundup anywhere else.
• Maps: You probably remember the epic dot-map that used Census data to show every person in America color-coded by race. There's an interesting new variation on that now: a dot-map that shows almost every job in America, color-coded based on whether it's manufacturing, professional services, governmental, health care, education, or retail or service-sector.
While there's plenty of data available about the numbers and types of jobs at the county or city level, turning the information into spatial form is very helpful. The map drills down to the block level, so you can see precisely where the jobs are, within each metropolitan area. Compared with the crowded dot maps of where people live, most of these cities seem almost empty, with most of the heavy concentrations of jobs in downtowns, along major arterials, and in isolated industrial zones.
The Washington Post's feature on this map gives you an overview of a few major cities, where you can also see which sectors dominate which cities (government in Washington obviously, along with hospitality in Las Vegas, professional services in New York, and, maybe contrary to what you'd expect, manufacturing in Los Angeles).
• WATN?: Former congressman and former FBI agent Mike Grimm of New York, a Republican who until January had represented Staten Island and a slice of Brooklyn for two terms in the House, was just sentenced to eight months in prison as part of a plea deal with prosecutors. Federal law enforcement officials had conducted a lengthy investigation of Grimm over a series of alleged campaign finance transgressions, but they wound up indicting him in April of last year on charges of tax evasion, fraud, and perjury regarding his hiring of illegal immigrants to work at a restaurant he owned before entering Congress in 2011.
Grimm ultimately pleaded guilty to a single count of tax fraud just before Christmas and resigned his office a couple of weeks later. That downfall came less than two months after he convincingly won re-election despite being under indictment, a feat he managed by claiming for years that he was the victim of political persecution, a stance that stoked the defiant resentments of his notoriously chip-on-the-shoulder constituents. Indeed, Grimm insisted he wouldn't resign even after his guilty plea, but if he was planning to simultaneously serve prison time and his district, we never got to find out, because John Boehner somehow convinced him to step down.
And yet Grimm's troubles didn't poison the well for Staten Island Republicans—not in the slightest. In a May special election to fill his seat, Dan Donovan, the prosecutor who failed to secure an indictment for the cops the who killed Eric Garner, handily crushed his Democratic opponent by 20-point margin.
But the ending isn't happy for Grimm, who will now enter prison as a former law enforcement agent. The judge who just sentenced Grimm told him: "Your moral compass ... needs some reorientation." He'll now get to spend the better part of a year contemplating just that.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, and Daniel Donner.