New Hampshire GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte
The first independent poll of New Hampshire's Senate race in many months comes from Marist, which finds GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte leading Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan by a 50-42 margin. That's a big shift from February, when Marist had Hassan up 48-44, but it's also close to where
a pair of Republican pollsters (Tarrance and Fabrizio Lee) have recently seen the race.
It's temping to conclude that Hassan's been hurt by her ongoing budget fight with Republicans in the legislature, who are dragging things out as long as possible to dirty up Hassan and keep her out of the Senate game. That's true, but incomplete as explanations go, because Hassan still has a very positive job approval rating of 57-35. That's down from her astronomical 70-24 score in February, but most pols would kill to have a +22. (Ayotte wasn't tested.)
It's also typical to for high-profile politicians to suffer when dealing with protracted legislative wars, only to see their numbers rebound once they're over. Thom Tillis in North Carolina is a good example: He had not one but two drawn-out budget battles with his fellow lawmakers over the course of his campaign last cycle but ultimately recovered from both to beat Sen. Kay Hagan.
Hassan still hasn't committed to a bid—she just reiterated that she does not "have a timetable"—and it would be natural if these polls gave her some pause. But if the old saw about public opinion surveys being mere "snapshots in time" ever meant anything, it's in cases like these.