Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry is on the bubble. Will he make it?
In one week, on August 4, we will know the story: which Republicans will be in the first debate and which will be out, stuck in the JV debate earlier in the day. On August 4, the polls will be averaged to determine the top 10 candidates (possibly more in the case of ties) who will be included in the real debate. NBC's First Read looked at the state of the polling, and ... drum roll ...
this is the state of play as candidates go into the last week to beat out their rivals and get into or stay in the top 10:
- Trump: 18%
- Bush 14%
- Walker 10.6%
- Rubio 6.2%
- Paul 6%
- Cruz 6%
- Huckabee 5.6%
- Carson 5.2%
- Christie 3%
- Perry 2.2%
- Kasich 2%
- Santorum 1.6%
- Jindal 1.4%
- Fiorina 0.8%
- Graham 0.2%
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, and former Sen. Rick Santorum look to be battling it out for the final two slots, so expect some high drama from those camps. Christie has already bought
$250,000 of ad time on Fox News—which is hosting the debate—to help solidify his standing.
One person who probably isn't worried about qualifying for the debate is Donald Trump. Remember the good old days of a few weeks ago when the media was assuring us he wouldn't actually file the needed financial disclosures to qualify for the debate? And then when they were telling us his polling numbers were going to collapse immediately, long before the debate was an issue? About that.