Monmouth:
NEW HAMPSHIRE: TRUMP LEADS, BUSH SECOND
Christie, Walker, Cruz may be most hurt by Trump
About 1-in-7 (15%) likely voters in the New Hampshire GOP primary report having met or seen one of the candidates in person. About half that number (7%) say they have seen Chris Christie. No more than 3% name any of the other candidates.
“Despite spending much of his time there, Christie does much better as a second choice rather than the first pick in New Hampshire. It seems that Trump has stolen the New Jersey governor’s ‘telling it like it is’ thunder,” said Murray.
No surprise there.
Simon Maloy:
The GOP is just this screwed: Donald Trump, immigration and the Republicans’ massive rebranding failure
New polling shows how the GOP can't win on immigration: The base really wants deportations, but no one else does
Brendan Nyhan:
Is Hillary Rodham Clinton in trouble? You would think so from the coverage of recent polls showing that her unfavorable ratings have increased nationally and in key states.
Multiple media outlets and pundits have suggested that her personal unpopularity 20 months well over a year before the presidential election is a major problem for her. A Washington Post article described the poll numbers as “decidedly sobering for Hillary Clinton’s presidential prospects in 2016.”
The underlying theory is, as The Post piece put it, that “presidential politics tends to be dominated by personality” and that Mrs. Clinton “may be hard pressed to win a traditional presidential election in which likability matters most.” Likewise, a Los Angeles Times article approvingly cited the maxim that “it’s often said that elections can boil down to a contest of who would a voter rather have a beer with.”
None of these claims are supported by the data.
More politics and policy below the fold.
Bruce Bartlett:
The Moderate Republican’s Case for Trump
Only Trump can make the GOP sane again—by losing in a landslide to Hillary Clinton.
Jonathan Cohn:
The JAMA article obviously doesn’t address many other arguments that the Affordable Care Act’s critics make -- about its possible impact on innovation, for example, or failure to make coverage even more affordable for the middle class. And that's to say nothing of the more philosophical objections to the law, whether to the expanded role of government or the regulations that drive up premiums for many young and healthy people.
But a common refrain among the law’s opponents is that the insurance people are getting, through either government or private sector, doesn’t really help people. This study makes that argument less believable.
Shorenstein Center:
A new paper by Jackie Calmes, Joan Shorenstein Fellow (Spring 2015) and national correspondent for The New York Times, examines the increasing influence of conservative media on the Republican Party’s agenda.
Calmes traces the history of conservative media, from its founding after World War II to the present-day proliferation of talk radio and Internet personalities. She finds that beyond the big names and outlets such as Limbaugh and Fox, smaller local personalities also exert significant influence over listeners and politicians.
This influence is troubling to leaders in the Republican Party, who Calmes interviewed extensively for the paper. She argues that today’s conservative media now shapes the agenda of the party, pushing it to the far right – at the expense of its ability to govern and pick presidential nominees.
Philip Bump:
Donald Trump doesn't have many specific proposals for what he would accomplish as president, but the few things he has proposed share a common ignition: negotiations.
The problem with the Iran deal? Bad negotiation. How's he going to get Mexico to pay for the giant wall he wants to build on the border? "The art of negotiating." China taking our jobs? Negotiate them back. Catching El Chapo? We bet you can guess.
"I know the smartest negotiators in the world," Trump said during his campaign kick-off. "I know the good ones. I know the bad ones. I know the overrated ones." He later added : "Believe me, folks. We will do very, very well. Very, very well."
When the Daily Beast called Donald Trump's office for comment on a story they were reporting, detailing long-past allegations from ex-wife Ivana that Trump had assaulted her, Michael Cohen got on the phone. Cohen serves as counsel to Trump and is an executive vice president at the Trump Organization. Our colleague Erik Wemple outlined a slew of recent occasions when Cohen appeared on TV to make the case for his boss. If anyone is a negotiator for Trump, it's Cohen. Given his role as special counsel, you'd figure he's among Trump's top negotiators.
So how did his negotiation with the Daily Beast go? Horribly.
Essence:
On the evening of June 17th, a 21-year-old Dylan Roof arrived at Emanuel AME church in Charleston, South Carolina with murder on his mind. Roof sat at Mother Emanuel’s weekly Bible study for more than an hour, prayed with 10 Black churchgoers in their sanctuary and then slaughtered them all in cold blood. Roof has since admitted to the police that he went into the church specifically because it was symbol of Black resistance and freedom. Roof also admitted that he had hopes his actions would start a race war.
We spoke with the three creators of the #BlackLivesMatter hashtag, Opal Tometi, Alicia Garza, and Patrisse Cullors, for reflections in the aftermath of the tragedy in Charleston with a look towards the near future. What does the Mother Emanuel massacre means in the larger context of America’s history of white supremacy and racialized terrorism, how is this tragedy related to the larger movement to validate the sanctity of Black life, and what can lawmakers and presidential hopefuls say or do to speak to the concerns specifically raised by the movement over the past year since an unarmed Michael Brown was killed last August?
Olivia Nuzzi:
The Cancer on Rand Paul’s Campaign
Paul, previously ‘the most interesting man in politics,’ is now just scenery in the 2016 campaign. How long can he stay in the race?
Last Monday, former Congressman and three-time presidential candidate Ron Paul wrote to express his support for the Iran nuclear deal. The negotiation, he said, was “one of the two most important achievements of an otherwise pretty dismal Obama presidency” and, further, it proved “that sometimes taking a principled position means facing down overwhelming opposition from all sides and not backing down.”
Awkwardly, that opposition includes Rand Paul, his son, who not coincidentally is finding himself struggling in the polls and in the money race as he campaigns for the Republican presidential nomination.
According to an NBC News/Marist poll released Sunday, Paul commands just 4 percent support in New Hampshire–a loss of 10 percentage points since February.