A new PPP poll is out, looking at Illinois.
First, let's get some of the local stuff out of the way.
Duckworth leads Kirk 42/36 in a head-to-head, and his favorable/unfavorable is a terrible 25/42.
She is also likely to be helped by Clinton's very large coattails in Illinois. Here's what PPP says:
One thing very much to Democrats' advantage in the Senate race is that Hillary Clinton has a substantial lead over the Republican field in the state. She is up by anywhere from 9 to 18 points against the GOP hopefuls. The Republicans who come closest to Clinton are Jeb Bush who trails by 9 at 48/39, Rand Paul who trails by 10 at 47/37, and Scott Walker who trails by 11 at 50/39. The GOPers who do the worst against Clinton are Donald Trump who's down 18 at 51/33, and Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee who each trail by
identical 16 point margins at 51/35.
This should be a Senate pickup for us in 2016.
Now for the main feature.
Both Democrats lead Republicans in hypothetical match-ups,though Clinton is entirely outside the margin of error and is absolutely crushing them all, while with Sanders it's more competitive.
Hillary Clinton 48%
Jeb Bush 39%
Not sure 13%
Bernie Sanders 42%
Jeb Bush 37%
Not sure 21%
Clinton is at or 50% against Cruz, Trump, Huckabee, and Walker, and at 49% against Carson, Christie, Fiorina, and Rubio.
The only "match-ups" in which Clinton is below 49% are Bush (48%) and Paul (47%).
Sanders best "match-up" is against Trump (48/32). He leads Rubio (40/34) and Walker (40/36). Those are the only Sanders match-ups listed.
Favorability
Clinton has the highest "favorability" number of anybody in the race, at 45. But her unfavorables are 47, making her 2% upside down. Drilling down a bit, though, we see that the numbers are 74/16 among Obama voters but 4/94 among Romney voters. No surprise, really. Republicans have always hated her.
Sanders "favorability" number is a mere 29%, with an unfavorable of 30, for a net -1. But he's an unknown. The biggest number is "not sure," at 41%. Among Democrats the numbers are 41/19/40, and among Republicans it's 8/50/42.
Clinton has a big gender gap, with women favoring strongly, and men going the other way:
Women 52/41/7
Men 37/54/9
Sanders is a slight favorite among women, not among men, but has big unknowns:
Women 27/25/48
Men 31/36/34
Clinton is also doing very well with minorities:
Hispanic 61/32/7
White 39/53/8
African American 66/25/9
Other 44/44/12
Sanders remains an overall unknown, but his numbers are really bad among Hispanics:
Hispanic 28/45/25
White 29/30/41
African American 24/26/49
Other 42/18/40
That problem with Hispanics runs over into individual match-ups.
Among Hispanics, Clinton beats Rubio 70/26 but Sanders loses 37/43.
The Bush match-up, among Hispanics, is different, too. Clinton is 63/18, Sanders is still winning, but at 54/30.
Against Walker, Clinton wins big, and Sanders loses big, among Hispanics, at 71/26 vs. 37/43.
The African American vote favors Democrats in all match-ups, but Clinton's numbers surpass Sanders' by as much as 20 points.
Against Bush Clinton gets 75% of the AA vote, Sanders is at 58 with 34 undecided.
Against Rubio Clinton gets a whopping 82,while Sanders is just at 58.
Against Walker she gets 83, Sanders gets 64.
There's been lots of griping around here about Sanders' performance among people of color. This poll is consistent with prior ones showing Hillary is far stronger among POC, particularly Hispanics. Among African Americans, she does better but Sanders is still a big unknown. Hispanics, though, seem to really not like him.